When it’s the morning after the last day of regular season basketball, and the stats aren’t loading, and everyone’s rested their main guys last night anyway, and I haven’t gotten together with Patrick and Erik for our End of Year Awards yet… all I’m left with is a playoff preview… If it’s interesting to me, hopefully it’ll be interesting to you too.

I’m going to these cutesy/clever nicknames for the conferences even though I don’t think they’re really applicable. Though I do believe that if the Bulls somehow make it to the Finals, they are capable of beating whoever comes out of the West. Perhaps more so than I think the East will still win if Miami makes it. That said, I still think Miami will make it. Oops… Spoiler Alert!

Beastern Conference

Bulls vs. 76ers

Yeah, I’m going to start with my home team, but they do have the overall best record (after the tie-break with San Antonio). Even with Derrick Rose still rounding back into form, the Bulls will take this one. I’m glad that Evan Turner wanted to play the Bulls instead of the Heat. If I were a lower seed, I’d probably rather play the Bulls too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. Of course, as a Bulls fan, I was also hoping that they’d get to play Philly, because they’re an easier matchup than the Knicks. So, take that Evan Turner.

Bulls in 5.

Heat vs. Knicks

I’m really not sure if the Knicks even take one in this series. I’ll give it to them just based on Miami’s lack of mental toughness and their Center position. Tyson Chandler should dominate, but it won’t be enough.

Heat in 5

Pacers vs. Magic

Poor Magic. I feel bad for the rest of the guys on the team to have to deal with Dwight’s drama all season and then lose him two weeks before the playoffs. Glen Davis says he’s going to play, and who would have ever thought that saying something like that would carry such weight? Still…

Pacers in 5.

Celtics vs. Hawks

This is probably the closest matchup in the East (which makes sense because it’s the middle seeds), but with Garnett and Rondo rested and Pierce seeming to be the same player he always is, the Hawks just don’t have enough to take it. They’re still very undisciplined (if Josh Smith had an Indian name it would be “Settles For Jumpers”) and they are still stuck with Joe Johnson’s contract (which basically formed a straight-line cause-and-effect to the lockout) and they aren’t supposed to get Al Horford back unless they make it to the second round (see you next year Al).

Celtics in 5.

Lesstern Conference

Spurs vs. Jazz

The Jazz are good, and the Spurs have a history recently of being vulnerable in the first round. But Utah just doesn’t quite have all the pieces yet. Their front court of Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors is pretty intimidating, though, and even Gordon Hayward seems like he might have more of an impact than I think anyone really thought he could. Perhaps with another year or two of playoff experience (and playing together experience) and a better Point Guard they could beat this Spurs team.

Spurs in 6.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Too bad for the Mavs their attempt at a repeat ends here. I’m sure Mark Cuban did his fancy analysis and determined that the guys he has should have played better than they did, but losing Tyson Chandler left them with a much bigger hole than I’d ever thought Tyson Chandler would leave. And of course, the Thunder just continued to get better.

Thunder in 5.

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Maybe the second most interesting series of the whole playoffs. The Lakers are good… but very vulnerable. The Nuggets aren’t as good as they maybe could have been, but they’re still pretty good. Their team is finally all there, and while they don’t have anyone on the level of Kobe, Pau, or Bynum, they do have one of the deeper teams in the league. And the Lakers will be without Ron Artest for most (if not all) of the series. It’s one of only two real toss-ups in my mind, but I feel like if the Nuggets can get up 2-1 then they’ll take it in 6. If they get down 2-1, then Lakers in 6. Which is more likely? I’ll put my money down on Denver.

Nuggets in 6.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

This is certainly going to be the most closely contested first round match-up. Each team won its home games, so the fact that it went 2-1 LA probably just means it would have been 2-2 if they’d played one more in Memphis. Since Memphis earned home court advantage with their win over the starter-less Magic last night, I’m going to say the trend continues. Both teams are still young and will probably not have the strength or discipline to stand up to the other team’s home crowd.

Grizzlies in 7.

And now that the stats are updated, here’s our regularly scheduled program called This Is Why Your Leagues Should End Before The Last Two Weeks of the Season (in which the stars of your regularly scheduled program have been replaced by a bunch of no-name actors; e.g., if Billy Baldwin replaced Alec on 30 Rock’s LIVE episode, or if Parks & Rec replaced Amy Poehler with Kristin Wiig… no, wait, that would be equally good… How about if Person of Interest replaced Michael Emerson with someone who wasn’t from LOST… no, the old people watching CBS wouldn’t know the difference… How about if the Secret Circle replaced… no… that won’t work at all…).

***

Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Patrick Mills (2.70) scored 34 points (4 threes), with 5 rebounds, and 12 assists. I mean, come on. I’m not even going to comment on this…

Honorable Mentions: Only two guys out of the Top 10 lines last night were from guys over 50% ownership: Josh Smith (1.67), whose Hawks were still trying for home court advantage, had 23 points (10-14 from the field), 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Marc Gasol (1.62) had 22 points (8-13 from the field, 6-6 from the line), 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

Then we get to The Replacements.

Pick Up Lines: Ben Gordon (2.58) exploded as Detroit rocked the 76ers. Gordon had 26 points (8 threes, 9-13 from the field), and 5 assists (44% owned), and while I didn’t see the game and I’m not going to bother to look at the box score, I’m going to say that Philly basically threw this one so they could play the Bulls instead of the Heat. And the Bulls will make them pay.

Speaking of the Bulls, how about that John Lucas (2.03) guy? He had another 25 points (3 threes, 10-16 from the field), 4 assists, and 2 steals (2% owned). While the Bulls need a Shooting Guard from the draft this year, I kind of hope they take a Point Guard just so they can get rid of Lucas. He’s a decent basketball player, I just have to cringe way too much when I watch them and he’s in.

Jason Thompson (1.85) finished out a strong season with 17 points (7-11 from the field), 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (40% owned). I think he’ll probably be rated high enough going in to next season that he’ll start off at higher than 40%.

And I think this might be a first… 3 guys with 0% ownership make the list: Jeremy Evans (1.83) with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks (0% owned); Chris Wright (1.71) with 25 points (11-14 from the field), 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks (0% owned); and Ben Uzoh (1.68) with a triple-fucking-double of 12 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists, and 4 steals (0% owned).

Biggest Loser: Yeah, it seems appropriate that Michael Beasley (-1.06) makes it down here with 13 points, 1 rebounds, 1 assists, and 4 turnovers. It’s not his first time and it probably won’t be his last.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

Do not miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter, or become a fan of GMTR on Facebook! We are so social!

If you like what you read here, come back every day for new content! And if you come back every day, please consider donating…

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• Day 87 of 124: Is Sacramento The New Golden State? (8)

Click to play or Download here (Right-click and Save As)
Or rock the GMTR podcast feed for iTunes.

Podcast Links:

Nels’ Sports Illustrated.com article running down potential second-half stars. Note his take is a little different than Erik and mine and is worth a read even if you have listened to the podcast.

Spoiler Alert Ahead!

***

If you can’t listen to the podcast, here are the potential breakout players that we discuss:

• Ramon Sessions
• Derrick Williams
• Bismack Biyombo
• Gustavo Ayon
• Tristan Thompson
• Isaiah Thomas (and through Thomas, Erik talks a lot about Jeremy Lin)
• Jordan Crawford
• Jerryd Bayless

Other Stuff Like This:

• Potential Second Half Breakouts (17)
• Day 95 of 124: Where Deron Williams Doesn’t Feel the Love (16)
• Day 85 of 124: Capping Off “Paul Millsap Week” (17)
• Day 79 of 124: You’ve Just Been Bismacked (8)
• Day 60 of 124: Where Stephen Curry Can’t Catch a Break (21)
• GMTR Podcast #29: The GMTR Fantasy All-Star Teams (29)
• Day 57 of 124: When the Thunder Goes BOOM! (26)

That was a cool end to yet another successful all-star weekend. The West All-Stars won the game 152 to 149. Kevin Durant won the MVP title via 36 points, seven boards, three assists, treys, and and steals. Not much unlike what we should be expecting from him post-all-star weekend. Kobe Bryant, Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook were honorable mentions chipping in 20+ points each.

The East was led by the Jersey-Miami connection of Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, and of course LeBron James. LBJ would have likely won the MVP glass if the East had won the game as he finished with 36 points of his own while going six of eight from downtown.

Here are some notes that affect us denizens of fantasy hoopsland.

1. Andrew Bynum only played five minutes due to soreness in his knee. This is a source of slight concern for his owners due to his past injury history.
2. Luol Deng  tripped and fell on his wrist in the first quarter. Yes, the bad one. He was held out of the remaining three Qs as a precaution. It was scary. But hopefully he should still be available to continue contributing at his elite level.
3. Kobe Bryant  suffered a nasal fracture during the game and is seeing a specialist today. He’s been such an iron man over the last few seasons, so it’s hard to believe that he’ll miss any time due to this injury.

Stay tuned for the latest GMTR podcast where Patrick and I will break down some of the players we project to be potential second-half breakout candidates.

Other Stuff Like This:

• GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round One (17)
• Day 99 of 124: It’s Time To Win. Make It Count! (19)
• Day 18 of 124: Where John Lucas Does his Best Derrick Rose Impersonation (57)
• Fantasy Basketball Player Tiers: Small Forwards (3)
• Day 118 of 170: Mamba Makes It Four! (6)
• Day 100 of 170: ReDurantulous (3)
• Day 97 of 170: Fake Tough Guys (1)

I’m not usually the guy who posts videos, but there’s not really much else to do today… I’ll spend my time answering people’s questions instead.

There’s a bunch of other highlights on the NBA’s YouTube page (if you haven’t already seen them).

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Line of the Night: While Kevin Durant (2.50) only had the second best line with 30 points (3 threes, 10-16 from the field), 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocks, it was Ty Lawson‘s (2.66) 25 points (10-16 from the field), but more so his 8 steals that really impressed the Player Rater. Because the daily scores we give here are based on how much a player will help your team win a category in a given night, 8 steals is a lot when you’ve got only 10 guys starting in a standard league (obviously, it’s nearly 1 steal per starter and if you had 10 guys who all got 0.8 steals per game, you’d certainly at least be competitive in that category every week).

Honorable Mentions: Now that the bell has run for Fantasy Basketball Theory class, let’s get back out on the playground: Kyle Lowry (2.45) led the Rockets in a route of the Spurs with a near triple-double in only 27 minutes: 16 points (5-10 from the field, 4-4 from the line), 9 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals. Wesley Matthews (1.82) had a nice game in Portland’s win with 25 points (5 threes, 9-15 from the field) and 5 rebounds. Dwight Howard (1.80) showed that Kevin Love is not the only guy who can get 20+ rebounds, scoring 16 points (7-9 from the field, and an equally bad 2-9 from the line) to go with 24 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks. Since you’re already punting FT% with Howard, that is a monster line. His future teammate Deron Williams (-0.40) didn’t fare so well, going 2-12 from the field to end with 10 points, 7 assists, and 6 turnovers. Not the worst line of the night, but solidly in the bottom half and rapidly closing on the lower 25th percentile. Dirk Nowitzki (1.70) put up 29 points (10-10 from the line), 10 rebounds, and 4 assists – including that one to Vince Carter for the go-ahead-but-not-game-winning three. Pau Gasol (1.67) had another strong game with 16 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks. I’m excited to watch Chris Paul and the Clippers go against the Bulls tonight, but after the Clippers got blown out by the Spurs on Wednesday, you have to wonder if Pau Gasol isn’t feeling a little bit smug. Or maybe he’s just still angry. Carmelo Anthony‘s (1.66) 27 points (9-10 from the line), 7 rebounds, and 5 assists were not enough to stop the Lakers. And neither were Tyson Chandler‘s (1.54) 13 points, 11 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. As a Bulls fan, I still wait with barbed comments ready for Chandler’s return to Earth. I might almost feel bad saying “I told you so” to the Knicks simply because they’ve heard it so many times before.
***
Waiver Wire Line of the Night: If you had Josh McRoberts (1.45) as your Sleeper in the Office Pool, you are a winner! (And if your office has a pool on fantasy basketball sleepers, you have a pretty awesome office). McRoberts continued his solid, but not outstanding play with 10 points, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. He is only 9% owned despite being the starting PF for the Lakers. Yes, Andrew Bynum is coming back tomorrow (unless he manages to get injured before then), which will push Pau Gasol (see Mentions, Honorable above) to the PF position with the Lakers also having Troy Murphy still in the rotation, but McRoberts might be able to work with 20 minutes a game. I say Wait And See in standard leagues, but in anything more than 156 player leagues, he’s probably worth hanging on to.

Pick Up Lines: I’m sorry, what? Delonte West (1.39) is the starting Shooting Guard for the Mavericks? No wonder they’ve lost 3 in a row. Is there a line outside the stadium to slap Jason Terry in the face? Or does he just laugh himself to sleep on his 30 minutes per game sized pillow? Anyway, West came up with 15 points (4-4 from the line), 6 assists, and 2 steals in only 22 minutes. He is currently 6% owned and you’re probably best to leave him there until the Mavericks figure out what a winning lineup for their team looks like this season.

Tiago Splitter (0.55) is not worth picking up right now, but with the Spurs getting launched into orbit by the Rockets, he played 24 minutes and got 10 points and 11 rebounds. Just something to keep in mind if any of the Spurs big men get injured.

Biggest Loser: It pains me to see Anthony Morrow (-1.28) heading up this list, but not because of his 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2-10 from the field. Rather because we filter this one on players who are owned in 50% of Yahoo leagues and Morrow is up at 66%. For someone we projected at 143, that is Way Way Way Too High. I can, however, forgive everyone for Metta World Peace (-0.88) because despite his 9 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 4 turnovers, he was probably mostly picked up in the last round of drafts as a joke (or in deep leagues as a sleeper). And also because he had fake conversations with Siri on Twitter. And if you can make it through the first 30 seconds of his latest video pick, it actually turns into kind of a decent song. Not that Artest has any vested interest in promoting the song or anything.

In The Bonus:
FakeTeams Waiver Wire Scoops from Wednesday
RazzBall’s Daily Notes
DynastyBasketball Daily Recap
fBasketballBlog Daily Recap (a day old, but check out the site)

Artest and Taz Zavala:

Other members of the new Pussycat Dolls (I would expect them to be pimping the NBA again this season) include former Laker Girl Vanessa Curry (I wonder if Artest had anything to do with that one), and Lauren Bennett.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

Do not miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter, or become a fan of GMTR on Facebook! We are so social!

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• Day 106 of 124: Easter Games Bring Renewed Hope (22)

1. There is too much money at stake for the season to not start on time
2. The two sides are “only” $3 billion apart, not $8 billion as stated by NBPA executive director Billy Hunter (and they are only $170 million apart for next season).
3. I talk to important people, so trust me

Ok, I actually concede that last point.

The reason that Sheridan says the sides are only $3 billion apart rather than $8 billion is that he only looks at the first six years of the owners’ proposal (rather than the full 10-year deal they are proposing). CBA’s have traditional been six years in length and that is what the players are proposing, so it’s certainly possible that the two sides end up agreeing to a six year deal. However, the length of the CBA is just one of the additional sticking points between the owners and players that still has to be worked out before any agreement is made.

Also something that still needs to be worked out? The owners are pushing for a hard cap on salaries in year 3 of the deal, which is something that’s been called a non-starter by Billy Hunter.

But other than $3 billion, the length of the agreement, the hard cap and various other small issues, the two sides are only a handshake away from getting this deal done.

I’m ready for the two sides to come to an agreement as much as the next guy so we can get the NBA going again (and from the comments on the post, I can see that everyone else is too), so I do appreciate Sheridan’s optimism. He even mocks up a timeline in which there is an abbreviated training camp and the season starts on time.

Now that would be a miracle.

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2011 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Analysis – Part 1
2011 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Analysis – Part 2

20. Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas, C, (Lithuania) – The Houston Rockets are stockpiling assets. And there are few assets in the draft whose upside is higher than Donatas Motiejunas. He’s a 20-year old seven footer who has an established inside/outside game. He’s athletic, can run the floor, handle the ball, create is own shot and has three point range. So, why did he go 20th in this draft? There are serious concerns about his maturity level and commitment to the game. He’s also described as soft, especially on defense. With his potential he could be the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki… or maybe Andrea Bargnani… or maybe Yi Jianlian. Now the word is that he’s expected to play with his old club Benetton Treviso during the lockout and could miss the upcoming NBA season (if it happens).

21. Portland Trail Blazers: Nolan Smith (Duke University) – The Blazers starting Point Guard, Raymond Felton, is fairly mediocre when it comes to efficiency per minute played (keep in mind his numbers from last season were inflated by the 26 games he played for the fantasy-friendly Knicks). As a result, he needs to play a lot in order to generate the kinds of numbers that he puts up. Does that mean there’s an opening for Nolan Smith? Especially since the Blazers only have Felton on a one-year contract right now? He’s got to have at least as much of a chance as they gave Pat Mills last season, right? Well, no. Even if they find a way to convince Felton he can be happy playing the 33 minutes a game that Andre Miller had for the Blazers last season, they now have Mills and Smith to fit into the remaining 15. Once Felton is gone, I can see Smith becoming a legit Fantasy PG. Not going to happen this season though without an injury to Felton (who has missed only 2 games per year in his career).

22. Denver Nuggets: Kenneth Faried, PF, (Morehead State) – If you like Reggie Evans, then you are going to love Kenneth Faried. Faried has a Dennis Rodman approach to the game (minus the off the court insanity), where his skill set, athleticism and tenacity on defense helped him lead the nation with 14.5 rebounds per game. His 1,673 career rebounds broke the NCAA modern-era rebounding record held by Tim Duncan. Not bad for a dude who is “only” 6′ 8″. It’s a smart pick by the Nuggets. Both Nene Hilario and Kenyon Martin became free agents this offseason, so Faried could find himself in the Nuggets’ rotation sooner rather than later. But does rebounding and defense translate into fantasy value? It really depends on what the Nuggets do in free agency. Despite a limited offensive game his elite skills have the potential to provide some low-end situational fantasy value this season if he can overtake the Birdman and get enough minutes.

23. Chicago Bulls: Nikola Mirotic – The Bulls were happy to trade some late picks that probably wouldn’t amount to anything for someone who might be worth something in a year or two. Check back then.

24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Reggie Jackson, PG, (Boston College) – What he lacks in point guard skills, he makes up for in freakishly long arms. That’s ok because the Thunder didn’t draft Jackson to backup Russell Westbrook (that’s Eric Maynor’s job), but to provide the team with an offensive flamethrower off the bench, especially if James Harden becomes a starter. Jackson actually has a lot of Russell Westbrook in him – he’s fast, can blow by guys with a quick first step, is great at penetrating and getting to the rim, and already has a giant set of balls. The Thunder have stockpiled a lot of young talent over the last few years, so it’ll be tough for Jackson to find consistency in that rotation this season, but he’s a nice long term play if the team can’t afford to resign Westbrook down the road.

25. New Jersey Nets: MarShon Brooks (Providence College) – I hope you read this far since I think MarShon could step in as a true fantasy sleeper this year (of course, with a many fantasy outlets as there are now, it’s hard to say if anyone can really be a sleeper). I’m not sure if everyone is still waiting for Anthony Morrow to break out, but hopefully most people are starting to realize that like a Schwarzenegger-Shriver reconcillation, it’s not going to happen. The opportunity is there for Brooks to be a fantasy role player in standard size leagues as a rookie.

26. Denver Nuggets: Jordan Hamilton, SF, (Texas) – Hamilton was the big slide of the draft, going to Denver (via Dallas) in the late first round after being projected by some as a lottery pick. Like any mature adult, Hamilton immediately blamed his coach for bad mouthing him behind his back. It is true that teams may have been scared off by his attitude and the fact that his two word scouting report would read “volume shooter”. Still, Hamilton was a talented scorer in college and already has NBA three point range. He’s also a very good rebounder for his position. Hamilton was a pure value grab for Denver – he’ll have a tough time getting minutes behind Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler this year and is a stay away for fantasy purposes. However, the pick does mean that the Nuggets can finally say goodbye to J.R. Smith.

27. Boston Celtics: JuJuan Johnson (Purdue University) – Under the obvious Kevin Garnett comparisons cited around the web, there is a player named JaJuan Johnson. There’s also more comparisons to players like Kendrick Perkins. JaJuan will probably get some half-decent minutes helping to keep Garnett’s playing time close to 30 minutes so he can keep his energy for the playoffs. Even if Jeff Green takes the half-decent minutes available behind Garnett, Johnson will probably get some more half-decent minutes when Jermaine O’Neal gets injured and/or only plays 20 minutes per game.

28. Miami Heat: Norris Cole, PG, (Cleveland State) – Scouts project Cole as a solid backup point guard in the NBA, so he’s already the Heat’s fourth best player before even putting on the jersey. I kid, I kid. The Heat loved Cole for his impressive speed and quickness (unlike say Mike Bibby, Cole is not going to have problems keeping up with Wade and James on the break). Cole is a good at a lot of things, great at nothing type of player. He’s a good scorer, defender, rebounder and playmaker. He’s also an intense competitor, which is the trait that could really propel him into a significant role for the Heat this season. He’ll give Mario Chalmers a run for the starting job and has some fantasy sleeper potential given that the Heat have plenty of minutes available for him at the point guard position, even off the bench.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Cory Joseph (University of Texas at Austin) – Backup to Tony Parker is not a bad place to start in the NBA. Joseph is going to have a hard time filling player, coach, and fan favorite George Hill, who was traded on draft night. But that doesn’t really matter for fantasy basketball. So, how much is Vegas putting on the Tony Parker Injury line should there be a 2011-12 season?

30. Chicago Bulls: Jimmy Butler, SF, (Marquette) – Someday, they’ll make a movie out of Jimmy Butler’s life starring Sandra Bullock. From homeless teenager to first round draft pick by the Bulls, the kid is a success no matter what he does in the NBA. As another one of those good at a lot of things, but great at nothing type player, Butler’s ceiling tops out as a solid role player. He’s got a good jump shot, can score a bit and is a solid defender, but he doesn’t necessarily fit the Bulls’ big need at shooting guard. Instead, he’ll likely be Luol Deng’s backup off the bench and won’t be worth drafting in fantasy leagues.

Other Stuff Like This:

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• 2011 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Analysis – Part 2 (3)

This is Part 2, where we will analyze the fantasy prospects of picks 11-20. The talk gets a little cheaper, as do the contracts. The fantasy potential, though? Who knows…

11. Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson SF (Washington State University) – Great shooter without much defense? Sounds like a perfect fit for the Warriors. Not exactly what Nate at Golden State of Mind wanted, but if you think Thompson can end up as a better Small Forward than Dorrell Wright or Reggie Williams, then you are probably of the opinion that the Warriors will be pretty tough to defend. What it means for Thompson from a fantasy standpoint is much harder to decipher. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry already handle a lot of the scoring load and Dorrell Wright emerged last season as a very nice Small Forward scoring option. David Lee is also still around to score 16 to 20 points for the Warriors. That’s a tough nut to crack.

12. Utah Jazz: Alec Burks, SG (Colorado) – Most people think that the Jazz knocked it out of the park with their draft. Of course, a big part of that was grabbing Enes Kanter with the third overall pick. And while Utahans wanted the Jazz to find a way to get Fredette with their other first round pick, Burks comes with a lot less fan fair but arguably more potential upside. The one thing Burks should be able to do right away in the NBA is score – he averaged 20.5 PPG as a sophomore and one of his strengths is attacking the basket. The big question is can he develop a three point shot and learn to play passable defense in the NBA. Burks has the ability to contribute for the Jazz immediately, but he’ll be fighting for minutes at the wing with C.J. Miles, Gordon Hayward, Raja Bell and possibly Andrei Kirilenko (if he returns to the team). That means he’s a better bet to come off the bench his rookie season while he works on that three.

13. Phoenix Suns: Markieff Morris, PF (University of Kansas) – I’ll make the comparison because it’s there: I think Markieff is going to be a lot like his fellow twin teammate Robin Lopez; he’ll be a decent back up player at his position who will record a few double-doubles, mostly when the guy ahead of him in the rotation gets injured. He might be a decent fantasy pick in the last two rounds in case he can pick up 20 minutes playing behind the combination of Channing Frye, Marcin Gortat, and Robin Lopez. Those guys are bound to miss a few games between them – maybe just enough to get him in the Top 156.

14. Houston Rockets: Marcus Morris, PF (Kansas) – Expected to go off the board before his twin brother Markieff, Marcus instead went one pick after to the Rockets. Morris has a few elite skills that should translate into the NBA immediately – he’s aggressive going to the hoop, can score a lot of different ways in the post, and his jump shot has improved a lot this season. The Rockets currently have a logjam at power forward, including Chuck Hayes (if he resigns), Luis Scola, Jordan Hill, and Patrick Patterson, so it’s possible that they try Morris out at the 3 and see if he can stick with small forwards on defense. Given the Hollywood casting call look of Houston’s roster at the moment, we’ll have to wait and see if the Rockets make any moves before judging exactly how Morris fits in with the Rockets this season. I wouldn’t be putting Morris high on my draft day cheat sheet unless he’s their starting small forward come October.

15. San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard (San Diego State University) – The Spurs gave up George Hill for Kawhi Leonard, the former of whom had worked his way up to almost 30 minutes per game last year. Leonard, though, could almost be considered an upgrade at Small Forward considering the human letdown that has been going by the name of Richard Jefferson. Leonard will at least get some playing time because of his length and defense. He will have to prove that he can shoot at least close to Jefferson’s level, but the Spurs can afford to play match-ups and shift playing time between Leonard and Jefferson. That being the case, until Leonard can demonstrate a reliable shot to go with his defense, he’s probably not a going to be a standard league fantasy player.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Nikola Vucevic, PF, (USC) – The fact that the Sixers’ starting center this past year was Spencer Hawes practically demanded that the team take a center in the draft. And the team obliged, drafting the 7-foot Vucevic with the 16th pick. Vucevic’s NBA comp is Mehmet Okur (without the three point range) so it’s not a surprise that Sixers’ fans are feeling a little underwhelmed. Vucevic has a polished offensive game, can score in the post and out to about 18-20 feet and should be a decent center in the league. The big knock on him is that he’s about as athletic as Betty White in a Snickers’ commercial, but the number of athletic 7-footers with polished skills and a smooth jumper in the NBA can be counted with one German finger. Given that Vucevic’s main competition will be Hawes, he could be worth a flyer in the later rounds of a fantasy draft in case he takes the starting job.

17. New York Knicks: Iman Shumpert (Georgia Institute of Technology) – Another great draft for the Knicks fans who like to boo their teams picks. Considering that Chauncey Billups only has a year left on his hefty contract, perhaps they do have a realistic need for a Point Guard instead of drafting Chris Singleton to back up Amar’e Stoudemire at Power Forward. You would think with their draft history, though, that they would have gone with a sure thing instead of another gamble. Even though Billups is getting old, he’ll still get at least 30 minutes a game starting for the Knicks next season, and Toney Douglas is hanging around to take up some of the remaining minutes at whichever guard position the Knicks will play him.

18. Washington Wizards: Chris Singleton, SF (Florida State) – Singleton is a plus defender who is big and athletic for a small forward. In his own words, he was drafted to bring a defensive mindset to the Wizards. Unfortunately, other than some modest catch and shoot ability, his offensive game is basically non-existent. Guys drafted for their defensive abilities don’t usually make the best fantasy plays their rookie seasons (see Avery Bradley or Luc Mbah A Moute). He’ll rack up some steals and blocks right out of the gate, but generally stay away from him in fantasy drafts. Especially since there is a good chance he’ll be competing with the Wizards’ other first round pick Jan Vesely for time at small forward.

19. Milkwaukee Bucks: Tobias Harris (University of Tennessee) – BrewHoop gives a very objective overview of Harris’ prospects in the pros, but considering the Bucks roster consists almost entirely of sort-of-tall, basically-GF-type players, he’s going to have a hard time breaking out in Milwaukee, especially with as raw as people are saying his game currently is. The Bucks have three legit scoring options ahead of their new rookie and a couple more sketchy options with NBA experience. I’m staying away in the draft, but willing to give him a look if he starts taking significant minutes from Luc Mbah a Moute as the season progresses.

20. Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas, C (Lithuania) – The Houston Rockets are stockpiling assets. And there are few assets in the draft whose upside is higher than Donatas Motiejunas. He’s a 20-year old seven footer who has an established inside/outside game. He’s athletic, can run the floor, handle the ball, create is own shot and has three point range. So, why did he go 20th in this draft? There are serious concerns about his maturity level and commitment to the game. He’s also described as soft, especially on defense. With his potential he could be the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki… or maybe Andrea Bargnani… or maybe Yi Jianlian. Now the word is that he’s expected to play with his old club Benetton Treviso during the lockout and could miss the upcoming NBA season (if it happens).

Other Stuff Like This:

• 2011 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Analysis – Part 1 (5)
• Day 114 of 124: This Overtime Goes to Three (4)
• Day 109 of 124: Waiver Wire Team Assemble! (19)
• Day 93 of 124: Night of the Living Waiver Wire Player (32)
• Day 91 of 124: It’s Almost Over When Klay Thompson Is Still Available (19)
• Day 88 of 124: Where Ben Gordon Strokes It (24)
• Day 81 of 124: Where Mike D’Antoni Hits the Emergency Eject Button (76)

Historically (and we’re coming up on the 7th anniversary of GMTR, so “historically” kind of actually means something), I will admit, GMTR hasn’t been a great knowledgebase when it comes to rookies in relation to fantasy basketball. Patrick and Erik and I aren’t really into NCAA basketball and we only sort of pay attention when March Madness rolls around so we can check out guys who might be coming to the NBA in the coming season. It’s generally been my belief that rookies play a fairly minor role when it comes to fantasy basketball, but I also have noticed that there’s been at least a few guys every year who have been stepping up pretty big in their first season. Perhaps that’s always been the case and I just refused to accept it until now. So, with that totally unnecessary preface out of the way, let’s get on with it…

This is only the first of three posts that will cover the first round picks of the 2011 NBA Draft in entirely too much detail. And one final note: I did the odd picks and Patrick did the even picks, so if you tend to inherently not trust one of us (presuming you even knew there was a difference) then you can filter your view of the predictions with that knowledge in mind.

1. CLE: Kyrie Irving, PG (Duke University) – Everyone said this was a no-brainer pick for the Cavs, and if you’re looking for rookies to draft in fantasy basketball, it’s a no-brainer pick there too. Irving is going to a Cleveland team that needs help at just about every position so Irving will be expected to do just about everything (with a little help from his new teammate, the #4 pick, Tristan Thompson). On a team like the Cavs especially, a rookie Point Guard is going to end up with a lot of turnovers. Look at John Wall, who ended up last year at #67 on the GMTR Fantasy Basketball Player Rater, despite averaging 16 points and 8 assists. Wall had 3.8 turnovers per game and that’s probably not too much to expect from Irving. If your first 4-5 players are leaning toward tipping the scales on turnovers, then you might as well take Irving in the 5th or 6th round – if he’s even still available. There is probably another guy in your league who thinks that every rookie can be as good as their NBA vet comparison and will go with Irving in the 3rd or 4th round. Temper your expectations with this notion: Irving is probably the best player on the Cavs, so who else are teams going to defend?

Different KI

2. MIN: Derrick Williams, SF/PF (Arizona) – For comedic purposes, David Kahn should have been forced to draft PG Kyrie Irving with the second pick in the NBA draft. Instead, he got a PG reprieve with the 6’9″ Williams, who arrives in Minnesota after two great years at Arizona. You’ll often hear that a guy is athletic (read: he’s still learning how to dribble a basketball) or has skills (read: his body looks like it’s made out of grape jelly). Williams is one of those lucky guys who is both an athlete and has skills. He’s an efficient offensive player who can score from just about anywhere on the court – including around the rim, in the post, with isolations, and even from three.

Ironically, one of his NBA comps is Michael Beasley, a guy he’ll be competing against for a starting job if Beasley isn’t traded before the start of the season. Despite playing PF/C in college, Williams insists he’s a small forward in the NBA. And with Minnesota’s power forward spot locked up by Kevin Love, the 3 is likely where Williams will get an opportunity to run. All the scouting reports say he’s going to struggle guarding NBA small forwards, but as long as his offensive game is a polished as advertised, Williams could slide into the Wolves starting rotation this season and put up some solid offensive numbers running alongside Love and Ricky Rubio. He’s a mid-round player in fantasy leagues if Beasley is shown the door, otherwise wait until the last third of a draft to pick him up.

3. UTA: Enes Kanter, PF/C – Coming from somewhere via somewhere else, Enes Kanter doesn’t have a lot of data to look at. That said, he is 6′ 11″ and has declared himself the best player in the draft. Of course, no matter how good he is, from a fantasy perspective, he’s going to the Jazz who already have Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors up front. That’s a very promising lineup for the future of the Jazz, but it means that Kanter’s numbers won’t be what they could have been on a team without as much front-court depth (like the Cavs or Raptors). Still, you can’t teach height, and evidently he worked out well enough to get up to #3 overall. Definitely someone you want to start looking at around the 6th round if you’re one of the rookie-optimists. More conservative folks will want to wait until where comps like Chuck Hayes and Mr. Kim Kardashian ended up at 91 and 92 (7th – 8th round).

What you were expecting a Kardashian because of that last sentence? This is Ines. I think Enes is the male form.

4. CLE: Tristan Thompson, SF (Texas) – Four picks in and we have our first surprise of the draft. Cavs fans were expecting Jonas Valanciunas in this spot, but the Cavs were scared by his buyout situation. Thompson is bit undersized for a PF, but is athletic enough to be a good rebounder (especially on the offensive glass) and has a great motor (drink!). His offensive game can charitably be described as raw at this point in his career. He can score in the paint, but has no jump shot to speak of and shot 49% from the free throw line this year. The recent trade of J.J Hickson to the Kings is an indication that the team is committing to Thompson as their PF of the future, although they still do have Samardo Samuels and Antawn Jamison at the position (for now anyway). Thompson is a project and I would stay away from him in fantasy drafts this season.

5. TOR: Jonas Valanciunas – An easy fantasy non-choice. Unless Valanciunas can work out a buyout from Lietuvos Rytas, then he is not going to be playing in the NBA for at least another year. Interesting note, though: I had previously thought it was up to the NBA team and the international team to work out the buyout deal, but in watching his draft profile, I learned that the NBA team can only pay $500,000 toward the buyout and the player has to pay the rest. Since Valanciunas has $2.5 million left on his contract, you can understand why he wouldn’t want to fork over $2 million of his future NBA contract to his Lithuanian team when he could keep that money and then the guaranteed rookie scale when he gets to the NBA.

6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely, PF (Czech Republic) – Vesely is going to be a lot of fun, so expect his fantasy stock to be high come draft day. There’s the PDA with his girlfriend on draft night; the fact the 6-11 forward is nicknamed the dunking Czech for his ability to put on a show at the rim; and that he’s called Brook Lopez the American Jan Vesely. Everything else you need to know about Vesely was broken down by Sebastian Pruiti at NBA Playbook. Basically, the dude has an NBA ready post game and surprisingly good defense, but his jump shot and work from the free throw line need a lot of attention. Given the fact that he’ll be running in the Wizard’s offense alongside John Wall, there is some fantasy potential this year, but since the Wizards are currently committed to Andray Blatche, Vesely will likely be relegated to limited minutes as an energy guy in the second unit. He’ll be a fun guy to own in fantasy leagues, but not as valuable as his highlights will suggest.

Jan and his smoochy buddy Eva Kodouskove

7. SAC: Bismack Biyombo, PF/C – I can’t wait to see the fan signs that come with BiSMACK Biyombo. But, I can wait to draft him until at least, the 5th round of the 2012 fantasy draft. From what I gather from the words and videos on the web, Biyombo is what those in the know call “raw.” (drink!) He tall, long, and can block shots. I’m not sure there’s much more to his game than that right now, though.

8. Detroit Pistons: Brandon Knight, PG (Kentucky) – Knight fell to the Pistons in the draft after a run on international big men (a close cousin to the IHOP). They grabbed Knight because he was the best value left on the board and not exactly because he filled a need on their team. While the combo guard joins a crowded Pistons’ backcourt, a spot could clear out very quickly if the team can finally move Rip Hamilton. Knight – who is only 19 years old – has the potential to be an explosive scorer with a high basketball IQ (he’s the nerd in the draft with the 4.3 GPA). But even he acknowledges that his game is still a work in progress (especially at the PG position) so expect a lot of inconsistency out of Knight this season as he learns how to be a PG in the NBA. Knight could be worth a flyer in the later rounds and I’d like him a lot more if Hamilton were to get moved.

9. CHA: Kemba Walker, PG (University of Connecticut) – The only thing that might hurt Walker’s fantasy chances this season (working on the assumption that we have a season) is the fact that DJ Augustine is still employed by the Bobcats. It does seem like everyone is ready to hand over the reigns of the team to Walker, though, so if he is okay with running pick-and-rolls off of Boris Diaw, then he’ll be an awesome fantasy player. Of course, when you consider that Corey Maggette gets the Bobcats’ starting Small Forward job by default, Kemba Walker probably has as good a chance as anyone.

10. Sacramento Kings: Jimmer Fredette, SG (Brigham Young) – I’m struggling to write something interesting about Jimmer Fredette. I mean, when the Mormon Church decides it’s time to weigh in on the great white hope, I think it’s time to put Jimmer Fever behind us and move on to the next big thing (like gap teeth). As far as his game goes, Fredette led the nation in points per game with 28.9. As the video below will demonstrate, his three point range has no range and when he’s not knocking down threes from all over the court, he can float on air on his way to the basket. I’m not sure what the kid can’t do on a basketball court, well, other than play defense.

Slip her the Jimmer

The Kings are clearly loving the Jimmer Fredette era in terms of ticket sales, but the more interesting question (and one they probably don’t have an answer for) is how he fits in on the Kings’ roster. With Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Marcus Thornton, the newly acquired John Salmons and now Fredette, the Kings have a lot of guys who like to get their shots off. It’s early, but Paul Westphal sees Fredette coming off the bench for the Kings behind Evans and Thornton. Fredette could certainly thrive this season as the team’s scorer off the bench (like Eddie House, only good), but will it be enough for the Jimmernatics out there? He’ll definitely be worth owning in fantasy leagues, just don’t expect him to play like a cross between Steve Nash and Larry Bird. Yet.

As a final Final Note: in the future the NBA should select a Lottery Girl to select the order. I’m sure Beyonce would volunteer, but the bias there would be too obvious. Instead, pick someone from Canada who only cares about hockey:

Gallery:

Other Stuff Like This:

• Day 85 of 124: Capping Off “Paul Millsap Week” (17)
• 2011 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Analysis – Part 3 (7)
• 2011 NBA Draft: Fantasy Basketball Analysis – Part 2 (3)
• Day 116 of 124: Fear the Beard (2)
• GMTR Podcast #36: All About Keeper Leagues (5)
• Day 110 of 124: You’ve Got To Be (Jason) Kidding! (9)
• Day 109 of 124: Waiver Wire Team Assemble! (19)

Line of the Night: While the Blazers were kind of foolish to trade away anything resembling a back up Center with only Marcus Camby manning that position, you have give them that Gerald Wallace (2.54) has been a strong contributor. He’s regularly put up games like last night’s 29 points (4 threes, 5-5 from the line), and 8 rebounds showing fantasy owners that he can do what he does anywhere he ends up.

Honorable Mentions: Derrick Rose (2.25) put on display another selection of delectable delights, both visually and statistically with his 30 points (10-10 from the line), 5 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 steals. Rose’s teammate Luol Deng (1.83) also played a nice game with 23 points (3 threes), 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

A strong keeper candidate for next season, Wesley Matthews (1.66) put up 18 points (8-8 from the line), and 7 rebounds. His teammate Nicolas Batum (1.40) had 21 points (9-13 from the field) with 2 steals.

Al Jefferson (1.62) had a double-double with 10 points, and 14 rebounds, adding 5 assists and 3 blocks in the loss, while his teammate Devin Harris (1.21) scored 26 points on 5 threes to go with 5 assists.

Kevin Garnett (0.84) was the only Celtic to put up a decent line against the Bulls’ (aka Tom Thibodeau’s) defense with his 10 points (4-4 from the line), 10 rebounds, and 2 steals. Unfortunately for Patrick (and everyone else in the East, really), the Bulls “magic number” is down to 1 for clinching the best record in the East.

Speaking of the Bulls, Carlos Boozer (0.59) rounds out the Top 10 with a double-double of 14 points and 12 rebounds.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: If you’re looking to stream, there’s actually some interesting options here… For example, Taj Gibson (0.70) only had 6 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals (27% owned), but if the Bulls win against Cleveland, you can bet that all of their reserves are going to see an increase in playing time over the last few games. If you’re still vying for a championship (or even a third place finish), there might be something there.

Pick Up Lines: Another set of guys who are already seeing that same sort of increase in minutes are the rookies for the Jazz. Derrick Favors (0.54) played 31 minutes on the 5th, and while he only had 20 last night, he ended with 8 points, and 7 rebounds (17% owned), and since the Jazz aren’t going to make the playoffs, who’s going to stop them from giving their rookies more time? Gordon Hayward (0.47) hopes that the answer is nobody. He played almost 36 minutes last night and while he only ended up with 10 points, he was 8-8 from the line, with 3 rebounds and a steal (9% owned). Hayward can score when he’s given a ton of minutes, and really, are you expecting more from the waiver wire at this point in the season?

Biggest Loser: Perhaps the season’s Biggest Loser Troy Murphy (-0.31) had another 2 minute appearance, even in a relative blow-out for the Celtics, ending up with 2 points, 0 rebounds, and 0 assists. According to Yahoo, 44% of owners are still hanging on to Murphy.