When it’s the morning after the last day of regular season basketball, and the stats aren’t loading, and everyone’s rested their main guys last night anyway, and I haven’t gotten together with Patrick and Erik for our End of Year Awards yet… all I’m left with is a playoff preview… If it’s interesting to me, hopefully it’ll be interesting to you too.

I’m going to these cutesy/clever nicknames for the conferences even though I don’t think they’re really applicable. Though I do believe that if the Bulls somehow make it to the Finals, they are capable of beating whoever comes out of the West. Perhaps more so than I think the East will still win if Miami makes it. That said, I still think Miami will make it. Oops… Spoiler Alert!

Beastern Conference

Bulls vs. 76ers

Yeah, I’m going to start with my home team, but they do have the overall best record (after the tie-break with San Antonio). Even with Derrick Rose still rounding back into form, the Bulls will take this one. I’m glad that Evan Turner wanted to play the Bulls instead of the Heat. If I were a lower seed, I’d probably rather play the Bulls too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. Of course, as a Bulls fan, I was also hoping that they’d get to play Philly, because they’re an easier matchup than the Knicks. So, take that Evan Turner.

Bulls in 5.

Heat vs. Knicks

I’m really not sure if the Knicks even take one in this series. I’ll give it to them just based on Miami’s lack of mental toughness and their Center position. Tyson Chandler should dominate, but it won’t be enough.

Heat in 5

Pacers vs. Magic

Poor Magic. I feel bad for the rest of the guys on the team to have to deal with Dwight’s drama all season and then lose him two weeks before the playoffs. Glen Davis says he’s going to play, and who would have ever thought that saying something like that would carry such weight? Still…

Pacers in 5.

Celtics vs. Hawks

This is probably the closest matchup in the East (which makes sense because it’s the middle seeds), but with Garnett and Rondo rested and Pierce seeming to be the same player he always is, the Hawks just don’t have enough to take it. They’re still very undisciplined (if Josh Smith had an Indian name it would be “Settles For Jumpers”) and they are still stuck with Joe Johnson’s contract (which basically formed a straight-line cause-and-effect to the lockout) and they aren’t supposed to get Al Horford back unless they make it to the second round (see you next year Al).

Celtics in 5.

Lesstern Conference

Spurs vs. Jazz

The Jazz are good, and the Spurs have a history recently of being vulnerable in the first round. But Utah just doesn’t quite have all the pieces yet. Their front court of Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors is pretty intimidating, though, and even Gordon Hayward seems like he might have more of an impact than I think anyone really thought he could. Perhaps with another year or two of playoff experience (and playing together experience) and a better Point Guard they could beat this Spurs team.

Spurs in 6.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Too bad for the Mavs their attempt at a repeat ends here. I’m sure Mark Cuban did his fancy analysis and determined that the guys he has should have played better than they did, but losing Tyson Chandler left them with a much bigger hole than I’d ever thought Tyson Chandler would leave. And of course, the Thunder just continued to get better.

Thunder in 5.

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Maybe the second most interesting series of the whole playoffs. The Lakers are good… but very vulnerable. The Nuggets aren’t as good as they maybe could have been, but they’re still pretty good. Their team is finally all there, and while they don’t have anyone on the level of Kobe, Pau, or Bynum, they do have one of the deeper teams in the league. And the Lakers will be without Ron Artest for most (if not all) of the series. It’s one of only two real toss-ups in my mind, but I feel like if the Nuggets can get up 2-1 then they’ll take it in 6. If they get down 2-1, then Lakers in 6. Which is more likely? I’ll put my money down on Denver.

Nuggets in 6.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

This is certainly going to be the most closely contested first round match-up. Each team won its home games, so the fact that it went 2-1 LA probably just means it would have been 2-2 if they’d played one more in Memphis. Since Memphis earned home court advantage with their win over the starter-less Magic last night, I’m going to say the trend continues. Both teams are still young and will probably not have the strength or discipline to stand up to the other team’s home crowd.

Grizzlies in 7.

And now that the stats are updated, here’s our regularly scheduled program called This Is Why Your Leagues Should End Before The Last Two Weeks of the Season (in which the stars of your regularly scheduled program have been replaced by a bunch of no-name actors; e.g., if Billy Baldwin replaced Alec on 30 Rock’s LIVE episode, or if Parks & Rec replaced Amy Poehler with Kristin Wiig… no, wait, that would be equally good… How about if Person of Interest replaced Michael Emerson with someone who wasn’t from LOST… no, the old people watching CBS wouldn’t know the difference… How about if the Secret Circle replaced… no… that won’t work at all…).

***

Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Patrick Mills (2.70) scored 34 points (4 threes), with 5 rebounds, and 12 assists. I mean, come on. I’m not even going to comment on this…

Honorable Mentions: Only two guys out of the Top 10 lines last night were from guys over 50% ownership: Josh Smith (1.67), whose Hawks were still trying for home court advantage, had 23 points (10-14 from the field), 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Marc Gasol (1.62) had 22 points (8-13 from the field, 6-6 from the line), 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

Then we get to The Replacements.

Pick Up Lines: Ben Gordon (2.58) exploded as Detroit rocked the 76ers. Gordon had 26 points (8 threes, 9-13 from the field), and 5 assists (44% owned), and while I didn’t see the game and I’m not going to bother to look at the box score, I’m going to say that Philly basically threw this one so they could play the Bulls instead of the Heat. And the Bulls will make them pay.

Speaking of the Bulls, how about that John Lucas (2.03) guy? He had another 25 points (3 threes, 10-16 from the field), 4 assists, and 2 steals (2% owned). While the Bulls need a Shooting Guard from the draft this year, I kind of hope they take a Point Guard just so they can get rid of Lucas. He’s a decent basketball player, I just have to cringe way too much when I watch them and he’s in.

Jason Thompson (1.85) finished out a strong season with 17 points (7-11 from the field), 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (40% owned). I think he’ll probably be rated high enough going in to next season that he’ll start off at higher than 40%.

And I think this might be a first… 3 guys with 0% ownership make the list: Jeremy Evans (1.83) with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks (0% owned); Chris Wright (1.71) with 25 points (11-14 from the field), 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks (0% owned); and Ben Uzoh (1.68) with a triple-fucking-double of 12 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists, and 4 steals (0% owned).

Biggest Loser: Yeah, it seems appropriate that Michael Beasley (-1.06) makes it down here with 13 points, 1 rebounds, 1 assists, and 4 turnovers. It’s not his first time and it probably won’t be his last.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Whether it is fantasy or reality, it’s impossible not to take playoff performance into account when evaluating a player for the upcoming season. Sometimes a guy’s performance is simply a mirage, a player having a hot or cold hand for a couple weeks (remember Tim Thomas’ awesome playoff run in 2006? I bet the small group Clippers fans do). But occasionally it is a real indication of a player taking a step forward or back in their development.

So, here are six guys who looked really good in this year’s playoffs. Will their strong play translate into fantasy value down the road? It absolutely probably will (although I make no guarantees).

After being smoking hot for most of the Cleveland and Orlando series, Rajon Rondo has been all over the place in the Finals. He can be careless with the ball and often makes decisions that would kill John Wooden all over again, but when those behind the back bounce passes are working, he’s one of the better distributors in the league. He’s also one of the best rebounding PGs in the league (5.5 a game in the postseason) and has an improving (although still tentative) jump shot from the top of the key. There isn’t much Rondo can’t do well, except for the deer in headlights look he gets when he gets to the free throw line. Next season, he’s in the discussion among the second tier of PGs after Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

Game 5 of the Finals notwithstanding, Pau Gasol has been a beast for the Lakers throughout the post season. There is nothing pretty about the way Gasol operates, but he’s effective – 19.6 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks through 22 playoff games. He was also only one assist shy of a triple-double in their Game 6 blowout of the C’s. The only complaint you can make against Gasol is that he’s been criminally underused in the Lakers’ offense, especially considering he’s their most efficient scorer against the Celtics (other than 3rd quarter Kobe). 10 shots in Game 2? 11 in Game 3? As Barkley would say, that’s TERRBULL.

Ultimately, the Jazz couldn’t get it going against the Lakers in the second round of this year’s playoffs, but that had nothing to do with Deron Williams. Without Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur, the Jazz had nowhere near the depth to match up against LA. On the other hand, Williams led the team to a first round win over Denver, became only the second player in team history to score 30 points with 10 assists in a playoff game, and became the first player in NBA history to score at least 20 points with 10 assists in five straight playoff games. In fact, he averaged 24 points and 10 assists over the Jazz entire playoff run this year. Best PG in the league right now? I think the argument starts with Williams.

Paul Millsap’s future ultimately depends on how much love has been lost between Carlos Boozer and the Jazz. But if Boozer walks, at least the team knows they have a more than capable replacement in Millsap, who averaged 18 points and 8.8 rebounds in 32 minutes a game these playoffs (thanks to the injuries to Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur). Without the Booz, Millsap instantly becomes a guy capable of 18 and 10 next season. If the Jazz do resign Boozer for some reason, then Millsap should sue the team for assaulting his basketball career.

Although the Bulls only lasted five games against LeBron and the Cleveland Cavs, both Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah demonstrated that they are the foundation of a championship caliber team. Rose averaged 26.8 points and 7.2 assists in the playoffs, while Noah averaged a double-double (14.8 points and 13 boards). There are still a lot of unknowns surrounding the Bulls this offseason and they could certainly use an upgrade at every position not played by Rose or Noah (I know a small forward who is currently looking for work), but I can count on one finger the number of other teams that have two young players as good as these guys.

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With the Lakers winning the first game of the Finals (and looking hella good doing it too) I need something to cheer me up during the insanely long wait for game 2. Drugs are certainly an inciting option, but I decided to go with the super geeky alternative: simulating the NBA finals as if it were a fantasy match up.

How? Way back in February, Erik and I took a look at the all-star lineups as if they were fantasy teams. Then I created a simulation program to simulate the all-star game as if it were a fantasy match up (Hint: The West destroyed the East).

Similarly, I modified that simulation program to take Lakers and Celtics lineups, sum up their stats across the nine statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, FG%, FT%, and turnovers), and then compare each of those nine categories like you would in a typical H2H league to see which team wins the game. Since this is the Finals, it is a best of seven series; first team to 4 games wins the series.

Of course, things are not quite that simple. I had to make a lot of assumptions in the simulation about the rules of this league. I’ve included a longer write-up of those assumptions below if you are interested, but if you’re the type of person who doesn’t read any of the instruction manuals for the new crap you buy, then you might want to skip that part.

Because anything crazy can happen in just one simulation, I ended up simulating this Finals series 100 times. Here are the results of those 100 sims in terms of who won and how often.

Yes, you can take the ‘Celtics win 4-0′ out of the real NBA finals, but it was the least likely outcome according to the sim anyway. Overall, this is a close series fantasy-wise. The Lakers end up winning 53 out of 100 times while the Celtics win 47 times. Going into the playoffs, that’s probably what a lot of people were predicting for the actual Finals as well. In the sim, the Lakers were slightly more likely to win strong in 4 or 5 games (they did it 19 times in the simulation) while Boston was a little more likely to go 6 or 7 games in their wins.

MVP

Kobe Bryant: 39 times
Paul Pierce: 18
Rajon Rondo: 15
Pau Gasol: 14
Kevin Garnett: 12
Ray Allen: 2

Kobe was the runaway MVP of the series, winning it 39% of the time. Not surprisingly, he and Gasol were the only Lakers to take the MVP, while each of Boston’s big 4 took home multiple MVPs.

Kobe is indeed an MVP

Comparing the Stat Categories

Not only can we look at the overall results of the series, but we can compare the individual stat categories across the entire simulation to see where each of the teams is strong or weak. Here is a review of the 9 cats with the percentage of times a team won that specific category.

FG% (Lakers 38%, Celtics 62%)
Any team with Ron Artest is going to have a leg down on FG%. Artest shot 41% from the field on the year, but Derek Fisher was even worse, shooting 38%. And Andrew Bynum’s great 57% shooting was offset by Perkins, who shot 60% from the field this season.

FT% (Lakers 58%, Celtics 42%)
A surprising loss for the Celtics given that Pierce (85%) and Ray Allen (91%) are two of the best free throw shooters in the league. Unfortunately for them, Rondo, Perkins and Tony Allen are horrible free throw shooters. The Lakers on the other hand, are a much more consistent FT% team, led by Kobe at 81% and Fisher at 86%.

Threes (Lakers 63%, Celtics 37%)
Overall the two teams are matched fairly evenly in threes with the exception of one position: PG. Rondo makes almost none, while Fisher average 1 a game this season. That’s all it takes to make a difference.

Steals (Lakers 44%, Celtics 56%)
On the other hand, Rondo led the league in steals. At 2.3 a game, he averaged at least twice as many steals as every player on the Lakers with the exception of Kobe and Artest.

Blocks (Lakers 50%, Celtics 50%)
I thought the Lakers would win this category consistently, but it appears that Perkins cancels out Bynum’s blocks and KG plus Rasheed equals Gasol. The rest of the two lineups don’t really have shot blockers.

Assists (Lakers 30%, Celtics 70%)
Rondo led the Celtics with 9.8 assists per game. Kobe led the Lakers with 5.

Rebounds (Lakers 68%, Celtics 32%)
Much like the real NBA finds, the Celtics don’t stand a chance on the boards. For the Lakers, Gasol averaged 11.2 a game, Odom 9.8 and Bynum 8.4. The Celtics on the other hand were paced by Perkins at 7.6 and KG at 7.3.

Points (Lakers 50%, Celtics 50%)
Another category I’m surprised the Lakers didn’t win. But while LA was mostly a one man show in the points category, Boston got contributions from their entire squad and even a little off their bench. The Lakers averaged about 2.5 more points a game as a team than the Celtics this season, so I’d expect the Lakers to come out slightly ahead if I ran this simulation again.

Turnovers (Lakers 58%, Celtics 42%)
Both Rondo and especially Perkins averaged more turnovers per game than their counterparts on the Lakers. Perkins was especially egregious at 2.1/game considering he only averaged 28 minutes a game.

***

Digging into the Simulation

A number of assumptions/rules had to be invoked to make this a worthwhile endeavor. Here they are.

The program I created simulates a single game at a time by randomly pulling a stat line from the game log of a player using their 2009-2010 box scores. This means that for any single game, Kobe (for example) might get his 44 point, 11 assist game from December 29th or his 10 point, 1 assist game against Dallas on January 13th. Or anything in between. The same thing happens for every player on the team.

Why am I using regular season stats and not playoff stats? One, I don’t have the playoff game logs yet, and two, the point of this simulation is to see who would win in a fantasy match up between the teams, not to predict the finals.

Yes, it is not a perfect system. The Celtics are (supposed to be) very good on defense and will likely hold the Lakers below their season averages on offense, Kobe and Gasol are playing out of their minds in the playoffs, rotations are different in the playoffs, etc, etc. The one thing that I did in the simulation is shorten the rotations so that each team only goes 8-9 deep. No need to get Adam Morrison or Brian Scalabrine involved in this; anyone who is not getting any playoff run had their stats zeroed out for the simulation as well.

After totaling up the stat lines for each team, there were compared like they would be in an H2H league. If the Lakers won 5 of the categories and the Celtics won 4, then the Lakers won that game. If the teams happened to tie at 4.5 categories apiece, that game was thrown out because there are no ties in the playoffs. Or crying.

After one of the teams won four games, the simulation calculated a Finals MVP by taking a rough weighted sum of each player’s series stats (for the winning team) and awarding it to the player with the highest score on his team.

The simulation was then reset and run again until 100 series were played out.

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1. Los Angeles vs 8. Oklahoma City – Bad matchup for OKC. Krstic on Bynum, Green/Collison on Gasol, yikes. Still, Durant will impress P-Jack.
2. Dallas vs 7. San Antonio – Closer series than the seeding suggests. With Hill and Parker both hurt, it’s the small edge Dallas needs.
3. Phoenix vs 6. Portland – Suns will roll with Roy out. Sorry Portland, Marcus Camby ain’t enough. In the Nash/Miller matchup, I’m taking Nash.
4. Denver vs. 5.Utah – No AK-47, no surprise. 15-day series helps the Jazz get healthy. Tight series with some fireworks.

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Copyright Notice: Copyright 2010 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

I’m not just using that picture because of Marisa Miller either… I wanted one of The Dunk, but I guess either Google doesn’t index images that quickly or no one working for Getty managed to capture it on digital film. Luckily my friend Docksquad got the video and tweeted about it 2 seconds after it happened. There’s probably a higher quality version of the video available from official channels now, but that one isn’t too bad.

Honorable Mentions: If you have someone you think is worth mentioning, let me know in the comments… I’m not seeing much.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: If you are really, really still trying to win a matchup, or catch up in the standings, then take a look at Devean George (1.10). He played 27 minutes for the Warriors last night (yeah, I didn’t know he was on the Warriors either), and made 5 threes en route to 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 steals. The Warriors have one more game against the Blazers, so do what you will… I’m getting ready for playoff fantasy basketball.

The Biggest Loser: While Carlos Boozer (-0.47) was slightly worse than Ron Artest (-0.45), he also got injured so I’ll give it up to Ron-Ron while wondering if LeBron has forgiven Booze yet. Artest played 26 minutes for the Lakers amassing 2 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 turnovers. He was 1-7 from the field and didn’t get to the line (though, that probably positively impacted his rating). Fortunately for the Lakers, they were playing Sacramento and Pau Gasol stepped up to pull out the win (even without Kobe).

All Eyez On Me: This is it folks, Phoenix @ Utah determines who “gets” to play Portland and who will get stuck with Denver. Either way, Phoenix and Utah will both have home court advantage, so it’s not like it’s a lose-lose situation.

Portland will play Golden State, while San Antonio has to face Dallas to determine who gets the #6 seed in the West.

And then there’s the matter of the Bulls against Charlotte and the Raptors hosting the Knicks to see who makes the playoffs and who makes the lottery. I haven’t done a review of the Bulls draft pick situation, but I won’t be crushed if they don’t make it because, I mean, the 8 seed is going to play the Cavs, so it’s pretty much “abandon hope all ye who enter the playoffs” from that perspective.

The Golden Ticket: As mentioned, the Boshless Raptors are going against New York’s fastest, and Golden State runs in to the home of Nike.

—–

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BIG BABY!

There, it had to be said. The Celtics have a grand total of two bench players that I like (sorry Stephon Marbury, you haven’t won me over yet) and now that Leon Powe is out with a torn ligament in his left knee and Glen Davis is starting for the injured KG, that number is actually 0. But more Big Baby in our lives is good for everyone, with the exception of the Orlando Magic and their fans.

The only spot Glen Davis is not money from on the court is the dunk

In the Celtics 11 playoffs games, Davis is averaging an overtime-assisted 37.5 minutes, 16 points and 6.6 rebounds a game. He’d actually make a halfway decent fantasy player if he got the opportunity to start next season. In the 16 starts he made during the regular season (again due to KG absence), Davis averaged 12.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists in about 33 minutes a game. That line basically puts him on par with someone like Michael Beasley this season.

Of course, it took Davis about 5 more minutes in his starts than Beasley to rack up the same kind of stats. Plus, Beasley is a rookie who stands to improve more than Davis next season. I don’t really want to think about KG getting hurt or not being able to start the season healthy, but Glen Davis is a bonafide NBA player, a fact that we weren’t really sure about at some points during the season.

In a great post, CelticsBlog credits Doc Rivers with enabling Davis to get the reps and confidence during the season to hit that game winning shot. It’s such a crazy idea it’s probably true. All those missed jumpers weren’t pretty, but maybe they were useful.

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Line of the Night: It’s fitting that the regular season should end on a Danny Granger LotN (1.58) performance, seeing that he’s one of GMTR’s most improved players (Indiana – sadly – not one of our most improved teams). Granger grabbed the last night of the regular season by the horns, smacked it a few times across the face and scored 35 points with 9 boards, going 10-16 from the floor and 5-7 from three. He also had 3 steals and 3 blocks. Granger = first round pick next season. Mark it down in your Shawn Marion circa Phoenix Suns Trapper Keeper.

Honorable Mentions: Too little, too late for Caron Butler (1.43) owners. Butler scored 39 points and added 7 boards and 4 threes in a loss to Boston. Thanks for another year of less than 70 games played Caron; Speaking of too little, too late – Shawn Marion (1.17) scored a season high 34 points (on 15-18 shooting) for Toronto as they beat the Bulls 109-98 (more on that below); and another one of GMTR’s most improved players, Kevin Durant (1.00), had 26 and 9 with 4 steals as OKC destroyed the Clippers 126-85.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Who-hoo! No more free agents, no more waiver-wire, no more of Don Nelson’s dirty looks. Fittingly, if we were to hand out a WWLotN, it’d have to go to Anthony Morrow (0.98) who exploded for 33 and 12 in a Warriors loss to the Suns. The undrafted rookie swingman is actually a nice little sleeper next year (points + rebounds + threes), provided he can squeeze out a role in Don Nelson’s “system.” And speaking of Nelson, a big thank you to him and his crazy bag of craziness, as Nelson and the Warriors were clearly the engine that made this daily waiver wire discussion run.

The Biggest Loser: The Chicago Bulls. A Bulls win or a Sixers loss would have given Chicago the 6th seed in the East, where they would have faced off against the possibly Hedo Turkoglu-less Orlando Magic. Neither of those things happened, so the Bulls fell to the 7th spot and instead have to head to Boston to face the Celtics. KG might not be 100%, but it’s still a much tougher matchup for the Bulls.

All Eyez on Me: Divert your eyes, there’s nothing more to see here. The regular season is mercifully over. I won’t have to wake up at 5am anymore to write these posts… thank god.

To wrap things up, the Bulls couldn’t finish strong and the Sixers took advantage. The dependable Spurs clinched the 3rd seed in the West with a win over the Hornets (of course they did), while the Rockets fell to 5th with a loss to the Mavs. Thanks to that win, the Mavs earned the 6 spot, while Portland’s win over Denver pushed gave them the 4th seed and the all important first round home series. The loss didn’t matter to Denver, the second seed, because they had already clinched the season series over Portland. Got all that?

You can view the first round playoff schedule at NBA.com. Or if you prefer NBA Playoff preview in video format, Youtube to the rescue. Sportige looks at who has the most to prove in this playoffs and Cuzoogle is giving away free stuff if you leave a comment on their site about who is going to make the NBA finals.

Trivia Question of the Day: Who is the only Phoenix Sun to play in all 82 games this season? The answer is: Grant “Ironman” Hill.

Just because the regular season is over, doesn’t mean GMTR is going away. We still have some recapping to do of the fantasy year that was and we’ll check in throughout the playoffs and offseason.

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No one wants to draft a player on the wrong end of his career curve, especially if the guy is on a Big Ben Wallace like decline. Therefore, it seems like the safe and easy thing to ignore players who we feel for some reason are too old, too likely to get hurt, or are generally in for a bad year.

But, unlike the rookies who hold so much promise but rarely live up to expectations (at least their first year), it’s usually the creaky old vet who will put in a solid – if a bit boring – year, provided his knees don’t explode or he doesn’t pull a Stephon Marbury and joins a planet that only exists inside his own head.

While veterans can often give you some of the best draft day value, there are specific types of guys that have the greatest chance for success.

The Previously Injured Vet: This type of player usually holds the most promise, provided you can identify who they are. Avoid the always injured vet (Grant Hill) and the currently injured vet (Yao Ming) and you should be in good shape. Someone like Jermaine O’Neal is a good candidate despite increasingly inching towards always being injured. He missed a good portion of last season with a knee injury and there are a lot of people down on his game right now (which I can understand). But, if he is healthy and can play up to his potential on the Raptors this season, he’ll be a 20 and 10 player.

One word of caution: be careful not to overpay for someone like O’Neal. Don’t draft him in the second round just because you think he’ll play like a second rounder this season. The point is to draft him low if you get the chance because of the injury risk you’ll be taking with him.

More of the walking wounded: Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas

The Mysteriously Underperforming Vet: This guy typically scares the crap out of people because, well, he sucked last season. And unlike the injured vet he doesn’t have an excuse to explain his poor performance. Kirk Hinrich fits that description spot on. After four years of being a top 10 guard in the league, Hinrich’s scoring fell off the map last year and he ended the season ranked at #90 on the GMTR player rater. Upon close inspection, it appears that Hinrich’s fall was almost solely due a decrease in minutes per game, which affected his counting stats across the board. If you think that Hinrich will go back to seeing 35 minutes a game, you’ve got yourself a solid guard that you’ll be able to get at a discount.

But watch out for: The player who underperforms because he’s toast, aka Ben Wallace or was never what people thought he was to begin with, like Boris Diaw. Unfortunately it’s tough to call this one in advance, so occasionally you’ll get draft that lemon. Or incredible shrinking Ben Wallace, as it were.

Other underperformers: Zach Randolph, Tayshaun Prince, Charlie Villanueva, Eddy Curry

The Straight-Up Crazy Vet: Crazy always comes cheap. Did you know that Ron Artest finished last season ranked #20 on the rater? Do you know anyone that will be taking Artest in the 2nd round this year? Hell no. Besides his tendency to miss a lot of games, he’s also insane, which isn’t the best trait to have in a player. I’ve drafted Artest on a number of occasions, sometimes with great results, like in 06/07, sometimes with very, very bad results, like in 2004.

Other people I wouldn’t want to be stuck in an elevator with: Stephen Jackson, Stephon Marbury

The Dust in the Wind Vet: The lowest risk/reward of the veterans, but they often end up more valuable than the rookies being drafted before them in the later rounds. These guys are old and their game looks it, but they’re still in the league for a reason and they usually do enough of the little things to be a decent value fantasy pick. If you’re in a league with daily changes, it often pays to plug and play these type of players when the situation calls for it.

Other players that smell like cats and Ovaltine: Kenyon Martin, Derek Fisher, Jerry Stackhouse, Brent Barry

The This Year Everything Will Be Different Vet: Wow, look at Kwame Brown, he’s practicing hard this off season… Darko will be more comfortable on the Grizzles this year… Don’t count out Darius Miles.

Probably want to stay away from these guys.

One final word on drafting the more risky veterans. Whether you drafted them high or low, if you’ve taken a risk on a player and they’ve fallen off a cliff or started just as crappy as they finished the year prior, don’t be afraid to drop or trade these guys at the beginning of the season. It will hurt, but sometimes the risk doesn’t pay off and you don’t need to be dragging Kwame Brown around like an anchor on your team for three months before you decide it’s not going to work out.

If I’ve missed any type of veteran that you think make good picks on draft day, hit up the comments and let us know who you will be drafting this year.

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Some slightly coherent thoughts about game 6 (which is why I didn’t attempt to write anything at 12:30 last night):

• So, Nels was spot on in his prediction of the Celtics in 6. I’ll admit I was a little more worried about the C’s in this series for a number of reasons, the most serious of those being 1a) the fact that the Celtics could barely get by the Hawks and the Cavs and 1b) Doc Rivers. But, I guess I didn’t realize how soft the Lakers were. I mean, wouldn’t you say they gave up on this game mid-way through the second quarter? And they gave up on the Zen Master? Inconceivable.
• Speaking of Doc, is he a good coach now? Was he channeling the ghost of Red Auerbach this series a la Bill Cosby in Ghost Dad? The only thing I can say with confidence about Doc is that he takes a hell of a Gatorade shower.
• After game 5, I was glad to see KG show up and hit a ton of big shots. That crazy one-handed hanging runner over Odom was ridiculous. Oh wait, more video. Odenized is awesome.
• I think Jeff Van Gundy likes James Posey. A lot. Probably a little more than is healthy.
• There is nothing quite as reassuring as watching a wide open Ray Allen line up in the corner for a three.
• This season, I was able to talk myself into at least respecting the talent that is Kobe Bryant. But the more I watch the guy, the more I dislike him. At this point, just looking at his face annoys me.
• It was great when Lamar Odom finally decided to show up and start balling for the first time in the series. Too bad it was when the Lakers were losing by 40 in the 4th quarter of game 6. I mean, really Lamar, that’s what it took to motivate you?
• One of my favorite plays of the game was a quick, easy to miss move by PJ Brown in the 4th. The announcers didn’t mention anything about it, but it started when Gasol got the ball in the post and started his patented “I’m going to back my ass up into you until I work my way close enough to the hoop for a layup” move that he used on Brown and Leon Powe a lot. As Gasol thrusted his ass backwards, Brown quickly sidestepped it. Gasol went flying backwards to the ground and had to throw the ball away to keep from traveling. I was laughing out loud after that move.
• Congrats to Pierce, KG, and Allen. All three guys deserved to win at least one ring during their careers.

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For a team that was dogged most of the season for not having one, the Celtics are getting plenty of game changing play from their bench during the playoffs. Last night it was Leon Powe, who I hear warms up before games by doing cock pushups (at least that’s what his ABC halftime profile said), scoring 21 points in less than 15 minutes on the floor. He also threw down a few.

The Celtics are also playing some great – dare I say glorious – defense against the Lakers. Swarming Kobe away from the basket, disrupting the triangle offense, and controlling the glass. With the exception of Gasol, the Lakers are also doing their part by settling for long jumpers instead of going aggressively to the basket. Or maybe you agree with Phil Jackson that it’s the ref s who are in the bag for Boston.

Wait. Is it too late for my playoff prediction? Celtics in 4! Celtics sweep! Lakers suck!

Alright that was fun. But in reality, the Lakers are too good to allow that to happen. Kobe is too good to let Boston take 2 out of 3 in LA. This series is going back to Boston. Mark my words. In pencil. So I can erase them when I’m wrong.

Nels’ prediction of the Celtics in 6 is looking particularly prescient today.

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