Line of the Night: Lebron James (1.51). The Cavs matched up against a Jazz team playing without Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko and the results were not surprising: 38 points for Bron off 13-21 shooting, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks and 3 threes.

Honorable Mentions: 33 points and 10 assists for the smoking hot Devin Harris (1.37) (playing-wise, not I want to touch his body-wise); Derrick Rose (1.3) dropped 23 points, 8 assists and 3 steals on the Pacers (your move, OJ Mayo); Paul Pierce (1.25) willed the C’s to a victory with 28 points and 4 threes off an incredibly efficient 5-9 shooting (and 14-15 from the line); and Baron Davis (1.16) provided a much needed 11 assists for my fantasy teams.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Anthony Morrow (1.31). Who? Getting the first start of his career (and playing in his 4th game), the Golden State rookie PG got 41 minutes and completely went insane – 37 points, 4 threes and 11 assists, while shooting 15-20 from the floor. Grab him off free agency while you can, but don’t feel too bad if he’s already gone. Yes, Morrow is starting, but he fails the free agent <70% GMTR shooting test for free agent pickups. So, don’t expect him to be scoring 30+ points again anytime soon.

The Biggest Loser: Kevin Durant (-1.07). Yesterday, I predicted that OKC/Philly would be a sneaky good fantasy game. Well, it was pretty good for the Sixers. Unfortunately, for Durant, Phily decided to turn up the defensive intensity as well. Durant was held to 13 points off 6-18 shooting and contributed 5 turnovers. I will now stop making predictions on this site.

Dishonorable Mentions: Richard Jefferson (-0.6), you are no Paul Pierce.

All Eyez on Me: Detroit @ Phoenix – Iverson vs Nash

Orlando @ Charlotte - Adam Morrison vs J.J. Redick

Dallas @ New York – Wow, Dallas is 2-7? That one snuck up one me a little. The Knicks are a prime example of how much coaching matters as they continue their march towards fantasy awesomeness. Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph are ballin’ outta control, Nate Robinson is money in the bank, David Lee is starting to play better, even Chris Duhon is averaging 6.9 assists a game.

Miami @ Toronto – Jose Calderon is questionable and from the sound of it, likely won’t play today.

Line of the Night: The only surprising thing about Lebron James’ (1.2) night (41 points, 13 rebounds, 4 threes – he was even 11-13 from the line) is that he doesn’t put on this type of performance every game. Because we all know he has it in him.

Honorable Mentions: At this point, Dwight Howard (1.1) is not only able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, but he’s also invincible to missed free throws. Superman finished with 31 points, 16 boards and 3 blocks; Chris Paul (1.1) is still waiting on his first LotN, but 21 points, 13 assists and 4 steals is good no matter how many awards you don’t get; Al Jefferson (1.07) put up a 27/5/5 line. The scary part is that its only like his 4th best game in this short season; Dwyane Wade (0.73) scored 30 points and dished 10 assists; and LaMarcus Aldridge (0.72) had a beastly 24 and 13 with 3 blocks to lead the Blazers over the Wolves.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: He didn’t start, but Chris Quinn (0.75) saw 24 minutes on the court yesterday for Miami thanks to a little Mario Chambers foul trouble. Quinn hit 4 threes on his way to 14 points.

In shallow leagues, you can count on Jeff Foster (0.65) to bring rebounds (13 yesterday) to any party he’s invited to. And is Shaq (0.59) available in your league? The 29/11/4 he put up is vintage Shaq and he’s actually playing ok this season (he’s currently at #94 on the GMTR player rater). I’m officially amazed.

In deeper leagues, Anderson Varejao (0.51) – with 13 points and 3 blocks - had his second decent game in a row; 14 and 7 for the fun to watch and possible new starter Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (0.25); And just go and grab Marquis Daniels (0.28) if he’s still available.

Injury of the Night: Word is that Kirk Hinrich will miss up to three months with torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb. The injury occurred during Friday’s game against the Suns. I have Hinrich in a couple leagues and I’ve dropped him, which seemed like a smarter move than the alternative: Wait out a 3 month injury for a guy who was playing like crap anyway. Ben Gordon got the start in Hinrich’s place.

Biggest Loser: Scott Skiles Alert! CODE RED! Charlie Villanueva (-0.72) was on the court ten minutes – going 0-3 from the floor and finishing with 0 points - before he was benched in favor Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Villanueva, who was on a lot of sleeper lists coming into this year, was actually having a decent fantasy year, but Skiles apparently appreciates players who extend a little effort on defense. The situation is still working itself out, but there is a chance that Mbah a Moute could assume the starting role.

Dishonorable Mentions: Yi Jianlian (-0.46) is taking over the “insanely erratic nightly line that somehow still adds up to something decent” role from Andrei Kirilenko. Last night Yi had 11 rebounds, but was 1 of 10 from the floor and has 2 points; Raja Bell (-0.45) shot 25% from the field on his way to 8 points and 4 turnovers.

All Eyez On Me: Houston @ LA Lakers – Houston’s four wins this season have some against the Clippers, Thunder, Mavs, and Grizzles. No offense to Dallas, but it’s time for Houston to show us they can play with the big boys. And by big boys, I obviously mean Andrew Bynum.

Boston @ Detroit: Not only a good match-up, but we get to watch a little Iverson vs Rondo action. Iverson was solid in his first game with the Pistons, his second is going to be a little tougher.

Memphis (3-3) @ Denver (2-3): Gay Mayo. It’s a tasty combo.

Golden State (2-4) @ Sacramento (2-4): Golden State is already dealing with injuries galore. Expect Brandan Wright to start in place of Al Harrington, who is currently out with a broken heart.

Atlanta (4-0) @ Oklahoma City (1-4): I am curious to see how Atlanta performs without Josh Smith, who is currently injured. OKC should put up a good test for them in a Washington Generals kind of way. Make sure to catch the part when Mike Bibby pulls down the refs pants.

Line of the Night: Tony Parker’s (1.2) name might come to mind when you think about the best of what yesterday had to offer. Thanks to a little double overtime action, he scored 55 points and used some of that extra time to chip in 7 boards and 10 assists to will the Spurs to their first win of the season. How can someone possibly have a better night that that?

Well, Amare Stoudemire (2.0) has something he wants to say. While Amare was “only” able to score 49 points, he had 11 boards, 6 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks. He also shot 81% from the field compared to 61% for Parker. So yeah, that’s one way to beat out a guy who scores 55 points for the LotN.

Honorable Mentions: In addition to Parker, Tayshaun Prince (1.03) scored 27 points off 10-13 shooting, adding 9 boards and 2 blocks, Dwyane Wade (1.01) went with some retro shoes yesterday for a retro Wade line: 29/7/6. Lebron James (0.96) scored 41 for the Cavs, but had 5 turnovers. Contrary to popular belief, Richard Jefferson (0.84) is not dead, he’s just living in Milwaukee. Jefferson had 32/3/9. And 19 and 15 for Nene (0.65). Damn, I wish I had gotten him in at least one draft.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: In shallow leagues, Nate Robinson (0.77) is continuing his role as a super spark plug off the bench for the Knicks. He had 24 points and was 5-5 from three last night. Luke Ridnour (0.51) is back with a vengeance. If someone in your league got a little anxious while he was out and dropped him, think about picking him up, at least until he gets hurt again.

Other Good Pickups: Wilson Chandler (0.47) went for 18 and 7 in 36 minutes off the bench and Kelenna Azubuike (0.46) had 22 and 8 with 2 steals for the Warriors (Corey Maggette sat out and DeMarcus Nelson “started” and played a total of 6 minutes – got to love Don Nelson).

Ridiculous Number of Steals Line of the Night: I wondered why Mario Chalmers (0.54) ranked 14th on the nightly board with 6 points and 6 assists. Oh right, the 9 steals he had probably had something to do with it. He’s now averaging 3.8 a game, which I’d assume would be some sort of record if he kept it up the rest of the year.

Ridiculous Dancer Pic of the Night:

I mean, come on Atlanta. Ridiculous.

Biggest Loser: Al Harrington (-0.44) is angry. He wants a trade. Don Nelson is responding like a mature adult and is not playing Harrington. Harrington is responding to that like the man that he is and has stopped caring. The result of all that is: 16 minutes, 3 points, 1 rebound. Harrington owners, you are completely screwed until he gets traded.

Dishonorable Mentions: Is it time to give up on Tyrus Thomas (-0.42)? I would have recommended never to have hoped in the first place. What has hope ever done for anyone anyway? Kirk Hinrich (-0.4). BLAAAAAAGGGH. I think that 0-5, 2 point, 2 assist game just made me throw up in my mouth a little. And David Lee (-0.39) – 8 points, 4 boards – will see better days ahead.

As has been reported by a number of news outlets, the Pistons and Nuggets agreed on a trade yesterday that sent Allen Iverson to Detroit in return for Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb. It’s a deal that basically works for both teams, although I’m not quite enthusiastic about it contract-wise from Denver’s point of view as some people are.

Winners and Losers

Honestly, for such a large trade (although it falls short of blockbuster status in my opinion) the fantasy implications of it are pretty weak. There is one big winner – JR Smith – who will likely become Denver’s starting shooting guard and average close to the 30 minutes he’s gotten through the first three games of the season. Expect some big scoring games from Smith along with a mad amount of threes.

Now, as I said in an earlier post, if you drafted JR Smith, go f**k yourself you lucky asshole. There is a 90% chance the guy is going to go off this year and you can sit back and enjoy the show. However, if you don’t have JR Smith on your team, I wouldn’t recommend trading for him now unless the guy who owns him in your league is an idiot. At this point, you’ll probably have to overpay way too much for Smith.

The big loser in the trade is my man, Anthony Carter. With Billups joining the team, his run as the team’s starting PG is over (//wipes tears//). Carter will likely be the first guard off the bench, but he’ll be hard pressed to maintain his 30+ minutes a game average. I’m not dropping Carter yet (I’m holding out hope he can still get 25-28 minutes off the bench), but I’m certainly not giving him a long leash if he’s relegated to bench duty.

The Rest

I’d hesitate to call anyone else a winner or loser from this trade. The Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell duo is mentioned as two guys who could see an increase in playing time. Sure, they’ll see an increase. Of like 3 minutes a game. For example, in the Pistons game last night, Johnson started and got 23 minutes, Maxiell also got 23 minutes, Walter Herrman got 19, and don’t forget about Kwame Brown who saw 17 minutes. Isn’t that Detroit’s deal anyway, spread the minutes around? None of these guys is going to average 30 minutes a game and very few players have decent fantasy value if they don’t see at least 30 minutes on the court (trust me, or I will send you a 20,000 word email explaining my thoughts on the subject). If Johnson or Maxiell are already on your team, keep these guys around to see what they’ll do, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to get them.

Can Billups improve? Maybe a little playing in Denver’s offense, but he was a 2nd/3rd round pick in most drafts, which means he’ll just be performing up to that level. You might want to target the guy if you’re especially ramped up about Billups and/or you can get his owner to give him away at a decent value. At least it’s a low risk trade with some possible upside if Chauncey starts to run wild in Denver.

Is Allen Iverson hurt by playing that “Detroit” style of basketball. I guess we’ll see, but I’m not overly worried. He adjusted his game when he went to Denver and I think he’ll do the same now. It could mean his stat categories get switched around a little, but it should all add up to similar fantasy value.

Carmelo Anthony’s scoring could see a small bump, although I don’t think it’ll be enough to alter his fantasy value drastically.

Rodney Stuckey? No way, not this year. However, next year he’ll be the guy that everyone talks about all summer and then someone in your draft will go temporarily insane and take him in the 3rd round. So, that’ll be fun to watch.

Antonio McDyess? Is he still planning on retiring? If not, can we sign a petition to get him to?

More fantasy implications of the trade:

The Pulse
Sarge on Dropping Dimes (or if you prefer, Sarge on Sports Illustrated)
Empty the Bench
2nd Round Reach
Points in the Paint

As many of you already know, the GMTR Readers League draft happened last week. Nels commented on his team a while ago as did many others in the league, and it’s right about time I did the same. My comments are a little late, but they are worth the wait if you are curious to see how a real fantasy champion* drafts (it’s also about time seeing that the season has actually started). Here is my team with a description of what generally was going through my head the time as best I can remember:

1. (5) Shawn Marion (SF,PF)

My first semi-mistake of the draft! In round 1! And a reason why it is important to pay attention to position eligibility when you’re drafting. It was no surprise that the big 4 went in order, leaving me with the consolation prize at the fifth pick of Marion, Elton Brand, Dwayne Wade, or Dirk. I picked Marion because he has the potential to be the best of the 4 and I like how he brings everything to the table (though the same could be said for Dirk). However, I forgot that Brand qualifies at C in Yahoo leagues. Stupid, just stupid. LittleFlyingWarrior! happily snatched up Brand at 6.

2. (20) Rashard Lewis (SF,PF)

Marcus Camby was on the board and I thought about him in this spot, but I think he’s going to be in for a tough year and play in like 40 games. Instead, I went with Lewis, another player who I don’t like all that much, but should complement Marion nicely and play in more games than Camby. There is nothing like getting 3 threes a game from your PF and 11 boards from your SF. It all evens out in the end, I guess.

3. (29) Marcus Camby (C)

Ok, it was obvious at this point that no one in the league wanted to touch Camby with a 10-foot pole, myself included. But him falling to 29 was ridiculous, he had fallen so far that I literally was forced to draft him by the fantasy gods. The fact that the league starts 2 centers made it an even easier call.

…what, he’s already hurt?

4. (44) Antawn Jamison (SF,PF)

At this point, my draft is quickly turning into Patrick’s big bag o’ value picks, as I went with my fourth big man in four picks. But I couldn’t pass up Jamison at 44, especially when he finished 18, 23, and 24 on the GMTR player rater over the past 3 years. Provided everyone stays healthy, I don’t think rebounds are going to be a problem for this team.

5. (53) Mo Williams (PG)

Straight up position pick here. 2nd Round Reach snagged Devin Harris at pick 50 and In Baclao We Trust selected Andre Miller at 52, meaning that Williams was the last tier 4 PG remaining. I’m not particularly jazzed about Williams, but you’ve got to separate your emotions from your team if your goal is to win.

Yes! My team finally has some assists.

6. (68) Jermaine O’Neal (PF,C)

The start of round six coincided with a run of players I would have loved to have: Josh Howard, Corey Maggette, Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry. With those guys all gone, I went for O’Neal - a guy I’ve been targeting in a bunch of leagues. I think there is a 50% chance he returns to his old form, a 50% chance he plays at a reduced level like last year, and a 50% chance he misses a bunch of games. I’ll take those chances.

7. (77) Andrei Kirilenko (SF,PF)

Even when he’s on, AK is extremely frustrating to have on your team, as I’ve experienced quite a few times. I don’t know why I picked him here, I must have blacked out during this pick.

8. (92) John Salmons (SG,SF)

I like when I can make upside picks like Salmons without having to reach for it – as 92 is later than I’ve seen him go in other drafts. At this point in the draft I needed guys who I could throw in at the guard position while all but conceded the assists category. If only he still qualified at PG, I could make the biggest big ball team in the history of fantasy basketball.

9. (101) Gilbert Arenas (PG)

Alpha_Terrance gambled on Manu Ginobili in the 6th round. Monta Ellis ended up going in the 10th. I think the 9th was a great spot to roll the dice with Arenas. Who should I have grabbed instead at this pick? Nick Collison?

…what, Camby is already hurt? Ok, maybe I should have.

10. (116) Shane Battier SF

Lets be honest here. Things are not looking great for Shane Battier. He lost his starting gig to Ron Artest and has missed the last four weeks with an inflamed left foot. He’ll be coming off the bench when he gets healthy which will be at some undetermined time in the future. However, despite not being able to score, he did finish 62 on the player rater last season thanks to the rest of his game - 5 boards/1 steal/1 block/1.7 threes. He’s not going to average 36 minutes a game this season, but in the 10th round I’ll take what he has to offer at 28-30 minutes.

11. (125) Raymond Felton (PG,SG)

Best PG available at this spot in the draft. He’ll average 14 and 7 and allows me to plug another PG during good matchup weeks.

12. (140) Jason Maxiell (PF,C)

Has since been dropped. Looks like Amir Johnson is going to be the man in Detroit. I could have made a better pick here, like the previously mentioned Amir Johnson who went 2 picks later or Matt Barnes who went at the end of the 12th (much to Nels’ chagrin).

13. (149) Ramon Sessions (PG,SG)

Back in the day, Fantasy Basketblog had a great theory about bench spots, especially for leagues with limited spots like the readers league. It went something like this: Always keep at least one bench spot available for quick waiver wire moves. While it’s great to have a deep team, if your bench is filled with good/undroppable players, then you are either going to miss out on some hot waiver wire action, or you be in the bad position of having to drop a good player to make a waiver wire move.

With that being said, Ramon Sessions is currently my “open” spot. If he can wrestle the starting job away from Luke Ridnour or Ridnour gets hurt early in the season, great - he’s a keeper - if not, he’ll be easily droppable when a better player becomes available on the wire.

In Summary

Overall, I’m pretty damn satisfied with this draft. I made some risky picks (Camby anyone?) but honestly, all my drafts are like that. I’m like the John McCain of fantasy drafting, In fact, I think that AK pick happened when I suspended my draft to help with the economic crisis.

I’m definitely going to need another center for when Camby and/or O’Neal miss time. It probably would have been a good idea to pick up one of those instead of wasting a pick on Jason Maxiell.

In the spirit of Nels’ team breakdown, here’s a visual breakdown of my team:
Regular text are solid picks
Bold are picks I’m very happy about
Strikethrough are picks I’m upset with
Italics are picks I’m just sort of kind of OK with

1. (5) Shawn Marion
2. (20) Rashard Lewis
3. (29) Marcus Camby
4. (44) Antawn Jamison
5. (53) Mo Williams
6. (68) Jermaine O’Neal
7. (77) Andrei Kirilenko
8. (92) John Salmons
9. (101) Gilbert Arenas
10. (116) Shane Battier
11. (125) Raymond Felton
12. (140) Jason Maxiell
13. (149) Ramon Sessions

*Not just hyperbole – I won last year’s readers league

Well, he’s gone done it again. The Washington Post reports that Gilbert Arenas had surgery today to “clean out his left knee,” making it the third surgery on his left knee in the past 18 months. The procedure is considered minor – and after taking 3 days off to rest - he can begin rehab. The surgery will likely keep Arenas out until December, and knowing Agent Zero, I’d be willing to bet that he ends up rushing back before he’s ready in December and re-injures his ankle before the New Year.

Fortunately (for those of you not involved in a mock draft), Arenas’ operation comes early enough that we can adjust our cheat sheets accordingly. Other than Agent Zero himself, the injury really only affects one – or possibly two – guy(s): Antonio Daniels and maaaaaaybe Dee Brown. Daniels is likely to be the Wizards starting PG out of camp, and the man can dish some assists when given the opportunity (6.4 per 40 minutes last season). He finished 152 on the GMTR player rater in a mostly Gilbert-less season last year, so don’t consider him more than a one month rent-a-player if you take a chance on Arenas in your draft.

Not-the-former-slam-dunk-champ Dee Brown was on the Jazz in 2006 (and in Turkey last year), where he played a total of 450 minutes in his rookie year. However, unless Daniels gets hurt, there’s reason to worry about Brown.

The fantasy value of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison isn’t really affected. Both are going to go high in drafts anyway, now you can draft them with a little more confidence. Their stats last year without Arenas weren’t all that different from when he was around, with the small exception of Jamison’s rebounding numbers. But I’m not sure we want to credit Arenas with that.

So that leaves us with the question about what to do with Arenas. I think the answer depends on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist at heart.

The Glass Half Full Plan

I think it is safe to assume that when Gilbert Arenas is healthy, he has the talent of a first round guy at a scarce fantasy position. He finished 5th on the rater in 2006/07 and 9th in 2005/06. Of course, the problem lately has been his health. But if we hope for the best and Arenas returns by December, that means he’s only missing 8 games.

One of the GMTR fantasy basketball commandments is to draft for value whenever possible*. Everyone is likely to be freaked out by this latest development, which means that an opportunistic fantasy owner will likely be able to get Arenas at a steep, steep discount on draft day, much steeper than a guy missing 8 games would usually dictate.

The Sure Your Glass is Half Full, But I Didn’t Know You Liked to Drink Warm Piss Plan

Arenas’ timetable puts him back on the court in “December” – which is NBA code for he’ll start practicing in December, then you won’t hear a word about him until January, then he’ll be scheduled to return by the end of January, only to return to the court in February, get hurt by March and schedule another knee operation for the summer. If that sounds like a guy you want to waste a second or third round pick on, then Kwame Brown has a couple timeshares he wants you to look at. And even if Arenas does come back and has a mostly healthy season, there will be plenty of guys available in those rounds who will put up similar numbers to him and are much safer picks.

As for me, I’d be a little hesitant to draft Arenas in general and I wouldn’t touch him before the third round. But if he slips far enough – say I’m staring at him at the end of the fourth – he’s a talented enough player that I wouldn’t be able to pass that up. And if he somehow misses the majority of the year, I’d be confident knowing that Antonio Daniels can give me approximately 12.3% of what Arenas would have been able to.

* Alright, I’m just making that up right now. But you have to admit it sounds good.

Among the many good reasons to play fantasy sports (and there are many), two that would rank highly are “having fun” and “for the competition.”

Joining a fantasy basketball league because you want to have a good time is great. I have no problem if that’s your primary reason for playing. And you don’t need my advice to help you have fun (ok, one piece of advice: Step 1: Add the Miami Heat Dancers, Step 2: Instant Fun).

However, if you’re primary goal is to play to win, then one of the most common mistakes that someone can make is letting their emotions fog up the decision making process. It happens in one of two ways. The first usually occurs when someone first begins playing fantasy basketball. Let’s call it homerism. You know the guys on your hometown team the best, so you’re more likely to draft them and overvalue them compared to the players you don’t know as well (the rest of the league, for example). Suddenly, Paul Pierce is the second best player in the NBA behind KG, and your sleeper list includes Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby, Leon Powe, and Antoine Walker.

I’m sure most everyone reading doesn’t have to worry about homerism much anymore. Play fantasy basketball for any length of time and you’ll start to develop a different kind of bias: favoritism. Don’t lie, it happens to us all. We all have guys that for whatever reason – they helped us win a league, we took a chance on them and they delivered, they fit our playing style – we like to have on our teams. I always end up with Mike Miller on just about every team I’ve ever had for some reason.

There isn’t anything inherently wrong with favoritism, as long as you don’t overrate your boys and can draft them in the right round. Although, I have seen a few people with the problem of drafting their favorite players a little too high. It’s cool if you think Deron Williams is as good or better than Chris Paul and want him on your team, just don’t draft him in the first round if you’re goal is to win your league.

But the flip side or favoritism – players we hate – I think is where people get into the most trouble. It’s safe to say that a lot of people do not want someone like Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady or Ron Artest on their team. But these guys do have fantasy value and often times they become good buys in a draft because no one else wants them.

I don’t think anyone goes out of their way to create a “guys I despise and am not going to draft” list before a draft. It’s more of a subconscious decision when we’re on the clock with our next pick. Suddenly, when making the draft decision between Vince Carter and Joe Johnson, we tip the scales towards Johnson and make up some reason why when Carter is much more likely to outperform him this season.

Again, this tip is all about winning at all costs and the best way to get started in that direction is to draft for value. Draft the players everyone hates (including you) if they fall because no one wants them. So, maybe Artest screwed your team back in 2004. Forget about it. If he can help your team, draft him and live with the hurt.

Creating a pre-draft ranked list is also important here, because it will help you stay on track and help you see more clearly on the Carter vs. Johnson type decisions. Pre-draft lists and cheat sheets also give you more time to think objectively about a player and weigh his pros and cons. It is less fun playing this way, no doubt, but it will help you win.