Give Me The Rock » Injuries

Day 44 of 124: Win More With Bayless

Erik — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:26:26 +0000

Injury of the Night: Chauncey Billups (1.52) hurt his achilles. At this point we’re not sure if it’s torn or not. We’ll know more after he undergoes an MRI. Bottom line is that outlook is currently not very optimistic. For now we can cross our fingers and hope it’s just strained. However, the prudent move in fantasy (for Billups owners especially) is to go and grab Randy Foye, who is the likely beneficiary of any minutes left by Billups in the wake of any missed time on his part. Foye was reasonably effective during his time as a starter this season, averaging 10 PPG, 2.0 3PPG, 4.3 APG, and 1.8 SPG. For now, the expectation is Billups may miss anywhere from a few weeks to possibly the season. Both Foye and Mo Williams will get boosts in value and production during this time. For now, we all wish Chauncey the best and are pulling for his speedy recovery.

It’s sad to see solid vets go down to such injuries. Speaking of solid vets, Line of the Night: Tim Duncan (2.80) took a sip from Fountain of Youth and took out a line from one of his days during his prime. Still remember those days? Let him refresh your memory to the tune of 19 points and 17 rebounds, while two steals and five blocked shots. Duncan’s performance proved too much for the Memphis Grizzlies to handle as the Spurs defeated them 89 to 84.

Honorable Mentions:

Chris Paul (2.76) led the LA Clippers to victory over the Orlando Magic with his 29 points (3 threes, 8-8 from the line), seven rebounds, eight dimes, and two steals. CP3 has been superb lately and should continue to deliver consistently from here on out.

DeMarcus Cousins (2.39) was a board shy of achieving a 20-20 performance with 28 points, 19 rebounds, and three rejections as he easily made short work of the New Orleans Hornets’ thin frontcourt.

As a Serge Ibaka (2.14) owner in at least two leagues this season, I was beaming with joy to see him log yet another (and hopefully more often) 30+ minute game for the OKC Thunder. Mr. Brooks, please give Serge more minutes. Pretty please? Free Ibakaaaaa! Ee-Ba-Ka! Ee-Ba-Ka! Ee-Ba-Ka! Come on people join in! THIS was the kind of line I was projecting Serge to grow into this season and exactly why I picked him in the third round of a couple of drafts. Hey if 12 points (5-8 from the field), 13 rebounds, two steals, and four blocks isn’t third-round-value material, I don’t know what is.

Marc Gasol (2.12) had yet another spectacular fantasy line with 22 points (6-6 from the line), nine boards, two steals, two blocks. I doubt Marc will retain this pace when Zach Randolph returns to action (March-ish). He’s sharing the paint duties with “Mr. non-factor,” Marresse Speights. Go figure. With Z-Bo in the paint, its going to be a whole different story, so savor this run while it lasts folks.

What would a night of Tim Duncan playing like a youngster be without a PG getting his own serving of youth sauce? Steve Nash (2.10) was like a finely aged wine, vintage 2006-2007. Ah, a fine year for Steve Nash indeed. Those were the days when 24 points (4 threes, 9-12 from the field) and 11 assists were more common place.

If LaMarcus Aldridge (1.88) doesn’t make the all-star team, I’m going to boycott watching the NBA! Fine, maybe I can’t do that, I’d be really, really disappointed. Outraged even! How can anyone not credit him with a spot after dropping 39 points (11-11 from the line) on the Thunder, no less, and even pushing Kevin Durant to the limit? How? If Aldridge gets snubbed again it would be a true travesty of epic proportions. What say you, readers? Aldridge for All-Star in 2012, “Yay or Nay?”

***

I own/owned Chauncey Billups in a couple of leagues. When news broke that his injury “didn’t look good”, I quickly grabbed either Randy Foye or this guy, ourWaiver Wire Line of the Night: Jerryd Bayless (2.15) (25% owned). We saw his under utilized potential way back in when he was with the Portland Trail Blazers. We knew coming into this season that he would be pushing Jose Calderon for at least a time-split at the point for Toronto. As a natural scorer, it appears that JB found his true fantasy calling playing alongside Calderon. He’s now one of the Raptors’ go-to guys for offense while Andrea Bargnani is still hurt. Bayless exploded for 30 points (6 threes, 6-6 from the line) and two steals. While obviously don’t expect this to BE his average moving forward. We do project more consistent and fantasy-valuable from this point onwards. Points, Threes, FT%, and Steals – that’s the key to how you’re going to “win more, with Bayless”

Pick Up Lines: C.J. Watson (1.94) was always a solid player. We knew he just needed minutes in order for him to truly shine in fantasy basketball. The dilemma is that it’s hard for anyone to get a ton of playing time when you’re backing up a Derrick Rose. Rose barely played more than 10 minutes as he was plagued with back spasms. He’s currently listed as day-to-day and likely just needs some rest and rehab for his back. Meanwhile Watson took care of business with a sweet double-double performance, logging 14 points, and 11 assists, with seven rebounds and two steals (6% owned)

Trevor Booker (1.81) outperformed Javale McGee last night with 19 points, three steals, three blocks. I wasn’t too impressed with Booker the first time around he filled in for Andray Blatche. Nights like this are slowly allowing Trevor’s potential to grow on me. If he keeps this up, we doubt he will remain 15% owned for very long.

Chase Budinger (1.50) had a good night as Chandler Parsons didn’t. It’s difficult to recommend grabbing him off your FA pool right now as it seems that Kevin McHale seems to be applying the “play whoever has the hot hand rule” when it comes to the timeshare between Chase, Chandler and Courtney (Lee). This happened to be Budinger’s night. He chipped in 16 points with four treys, and five rebounds (35% owned).

Linas Kleiza (1.41) joined Jerryd Bayless’ scoring extravaganza with his own superb performance off the bench. Kleiza poured on the fantasy goodness with 30 points (4 threes, 11-16 from the field) (10% owned). Games like that make his occasional “knee soreness” scares and DNPs worth the risk.

Biggest Loser:

It’s mildly mind-boggling to see Al Harrington (-0.93) who actually double-doubled, as our biggest loser for the evening. Apparently his 12 points and 15 rebounds were not enough to offset his zero assists and four turnovers, that were accompanied with horrible shooting from both the field (5-16) and from the line (2-6) .

Derrick Rose (-0.87) is an understandable disappointment as he had to leave the game due to back spasms. So I’m sure his owners in the rotisserie format will just have to suck it up and end up using the four points, zero rebounds, zero assists D-Rose locked into his fantasy roster slot.

Kevin Martin (-0.86) had an off night, to put it mildly, and was an appalling fraction of his normal self as he delivered eight points and one assist for the night.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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GMTR Podcast: Delayed

Patrick — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:28:58 +0000

…because I’m day-to-day with flu like systems.

Yes, even I couldn’t survive the grind of the condensed season. Erik and I had picked a great topic for the week (trading), prepped for it, and then I started to come down with the flu. So instead of me sleepwalking through an episode, we decided to push it back a few days until I was feeling better. So as long as everything goes to plan, there be a new podcast later this week.

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Day 37 of 124: Where Blake Griffin Tears a Hole in the Space-Time Continuum

Patrick — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 14:05:00 +0000

Line of the Night: Derrick Rose (2.67 WARP). I got to watch some of the Bulls/Wizards game last night. Unfortunately, what I watched was the fourth quarter (when the Wizards started to clamp down on Rose and forced Carlos Boozer to actually do something on the court) so I missed most of Rose’s season high 35 points in the game. Rose was also 14-15 from the line (yay for that FT% category), adding 8 assists, a couple steals and 3 blocks. Rose now has 3 straight 30 point games – so I guess that toe is feeling ok.

Honorable Mentions: Add one part Chris Paul (2.65) and one part ego-destroying rim destruction by Blake Griffin (1.07) and you’ve got the recipe for the how to stop the Thunder’s four game winning streak. Paul had 26 points (on 12-16 from the field), adding 14 assists, while Griffin did this to Kendrick Perkins:

Griffin finished with 22 and 7, but doubt anyone is talking about his stat line today. For the Thunder, Kevin Durant (2.49) scored 36 points, with 13 rebounds and 3 blocks, while Russell Westbrook (1.67) dropped 31 and added 5 steals. Kendrick Perkins finished with the need for a lifetime of therapy.

One reason I hate owning Michael Beasley (2.39) is because of the occasional 30+ point games he puts up, which teases you just enough to keep him around through all the bad times. Last night was one of those nights for the Beas who helped spark a huge third quarter run for the Wolves and finished the game 34 points on 10-14 from the floor and 12-12 from the line in a win over the Rockets. If you’ve never had the pleasure of owning Beasley before, you will get these 30 point games from time to time spread out over the year. It is not the start of something special.

The Wolves – who scored 120 points on the night – were far from a one man show. Kevin Love (2.23) chipped in 29 points (on 10-15 from the field), with a measly 7 rebounds; while Ricky Rubio (2.12) nearly triple-doubled with 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 11 assists.

The Rockets’ best line actually came from Kevin Martin (1.46), who was back in the lineup after missing two games. Martin hit 4-6 from three and finished with 29 points in the game. This meant that Courtney Lee was pushed back to the bench (and didn’t do much in 22 minutes), while Chase Budinger managed to still score 13 points in 21 minutes. Both take a hit in their fantasy value with Martin back. And just a note to all Kyle Lowry (0.51) owners – he continues to slide down the GMTR player rater thanks to recent games like this one last night – 11 points and 3 assists. You may want to quickly sell high on him if you still can.

Big men of the world unite! Paul Millsap (1.73) continues to play like a first round fantasy draft pick with 19 points and 15 rebounds in a win over the Blazers. Al Jefferson missed the game with an ankle injury – and the injury sounds pretty bad despite Jefferson’s insistence that he’s going to be back on the court soon – so keep an eye on that situation Jefferson owners.

Ryan Anderson (0.58) may be known more for his three point prowess than his boarding, but thanks to a truly horrific shooting game between the Magic and Sixers (more on that below) he grabbed 20 boards on the night. The downside is that he was 0-4 from three.

And Joakim Noah (1.43) – who was in a funk at the start of the season – nearly had a triple-double against the Wizards with 14 points, 13 boards and 7 assists. With 5 double-doubles in a row now, I think it’s safe to say that Noah is back.

The Suns got destroyed by the Mavs 122-99, but Marcin Gortat (1.85) had the best fantasy line in the game with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks against one of the more invisible 7-footers in the league, Brendan Haywood. And with all the talk about Rodrigue Beaubois (0.77) – who finished with 8 points and 7 assists in the start – the Mavs’ best line actually came from…

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Delonte West (2.60). West may have lost his starting job to Beaubois, but with Kidd out he got 28 minutes off the Dallas’ bench and scored 25 points on 9-12 shooting, adding 5 threes and 6 assists. Whether he is starting or coming off the bench, West will get minutes with Kidd out of the lineup and makes an ok add in deeper leagues, but his scoring in this game is a total aberration. He’s much more likely to be around the 10-12 point mark in most games. I’d guess that West’s big fantasy contribution will most likely be as spoil to any breakout potential that Beaubois has currently.

Pick Up Lines: Yesterday’s waiver wire guy, Vince Carter (2.41), chipped in another 21 points and was 5-7 from three in 29 minutes. I echo Erik’s comments from yesterday – I can’t say that I’m running out to grab Carter in any leagues – but as long as his shot is falling like it has been recently, he should get a small bump in minutes and value while Kidd is out.

Earl Watson (2.05) – our deep league special from two podcasts ago – filled up the box score with 6 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 steals and 2 blocks in 25 minutes for the Jazz. He’s still coming off the bench behind Devin Harris, so he only really makes sense in deep leagues at the moment or maybe as a handcuff if you happen to still be a Harris owner (again, probably in a deep league).

With Andray Blatche out of the Wizards’ lineup for a month or so (more on that below) Trevor Booker (2.03) got extra run off the bench against the Bulls (Jan Vesely started at PF and did absolutely nothing). Meanwhile, Brooker and had his best game of the season – 14 points (7-9 from the field), 9 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks. His line as a starter earlier in the year when Blatche was out – 6.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 0.6 blocks – doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, but if you’re desperate for a big or are a Blatche owner, you may want to take a chance on Booker.

Mike Dunleavy (1.68) wants some love, dammit. Lately, we’ve been dismissing Dunleavy on GMTR (as well as the entire Bucks SG through PF positions), but he continues to put up nice scoring numbers off the bench for Milwaukee. And against the Pistons, Dunleavy scored 20 points and hit 2 threes in 26 minutes. It’s his fourth double-digit scoring game out of his last 5 games and he’s finally wore me down enough that I’ll say he is worth a look if you need a scorer as long as he’s getting a consistent 25+ minutes off the bench.

If you love Ryan Anderson but can’t afford his price tag, check out Matt Bonner (1.40), PF/C for the Spurs who is basically a 6-foot 10-inch three-point specialist. Bonner scored 15 points on 5-9 from three against the Grizzlies and has now hit 15 threes in the Spurs last 4 games.

Speaking of three point specialists, Kyle Korver (1.20) got the start, played 44 minutes and hit 5 threes of his own on the way to 17 points and 5 rebounds for the Bulls. The absence of both Luol Deng and Richard Hamilton helped Korver get that burn. He makes a good short-term play while those two guys are out, although both Deng and Hamilton are day-to-day and will probably be back sometime this week.

And with Thabo Sefolosha out with a right foot injury, Daequan Cook (0.90) saw 32 minutes off the bench for the Thunder and had a pretty empty 12 points. But he’s currently available in 99% of leagues, so if you happen to play in a 16+ team league and need some scoring for the week, he could be worth a play while Sefolosha is out.

Injury of the Night: The Wizards announced yesterday that Andray Blatche is expected to miss the next 3-5 weeks with a strained calf muscle. According to interim head coach Randy Wittman:

“He’s probably looking at, after the doctors looked at an MRI, maybe 3-5 weeks with a strain,” Wittman said. “He tweaked it pretty good in Charlotte, and obviously there’s a lot of bleeding in there, which leads to the inflammation in the calf. We’ve got to get that out of there first, and then we’ll have a better idea what we’re looking at.”

As mentioned above, Jan Vesely (-0.45) got the start in Blatche’s place last night, but only played 15 minutes. Trevor Booker is the guy to look at picking up, especially if you’re a Blatche owner. I’ve already dropped Blatche in the one daily changes league I had him in.

Possible Injury Rumor of the Night: So in an article about Rudy Gay, Yahoo Sports’ Marc Spears just casually threw out that Coach Lionel Hollins doesn’t think that Zach Randolph will be back on the court this season. What? How about a little elaboration please? Spears seems to be making a habit out of burying these gossipy tidbits in articles about other stuff (I noticed he did a similar thing earlier this year, although I forget about what at the moment). If you’ve held on to Z-Bo for this long, wait for confirmation from some other source before dropping Randolph.

[UPDATE: Thanks to a little detective work by Nels (check out the comments), it looks like Spears misquoted Hollins about Z-Bo in his article. Everything is still on track for Z-Bo.]

Biggest Loser: The Magic appear to be doing everything in their power to actually drive Dwight Howard away from the team. In their latest 74-69 loss to the Sixers, Hedo Turkoglu (-1.32) finished with 3 points and 3 rebounds while shooting 1-9 from the field. Hedo has shot 12-48 over his last six games and appears to have already run out of steam on the season. Don’t be surprised if he pulls a Dirk or Melo sometime soon and takes some time off to get right.

And has Brandon Knight (-1.16) already hit the rookie wall? It’s a little early to proclaim that after two bad games, but Knight didn’t score on the night, finishing with 1 rebound, 2 assists and 4 turnovers in 24 minutes.

***

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GMTR Podcast #27: Early Season Surprises and Disappointments

Patrick — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 14:46:30 +0000

In what is becoming a weekly segment on the podcast, Erik and Patrick discuss the week’s latest injuries, including Andrew Bogut’s dim outlook, Andrea Bargnani, Carmelo Anthony and Baron Davis, the crazy tough or possibly just crazy Luol Deng, and some bad news for Rajon Rondo owners. We also discuss Erik’s series of posts where he listed the top players by position over the first month of the season and highlight some of the bigger fantasy surprises and disappointments so far this year.

Note: There are some small sound quality issues on Erik’s end during a few parts of the podcast as his internet connection was giving him a little trouble. It happens very sporadically and all it does is make his silky smooth voice a little tougher to understand at certain parts.

Click to play or Download here (Right-click and Save As)
Or rock the GMTR podcast feed for iTunes.

Podcast Links:

Update on Rajon Rondo’s status
Baron Davis may miss 1-2 more weeks
First Month Report Card: Top Point Guards in Fantasy Basketball
First Month Report Card: Top Shooting Guards in Fantasy Basketball
First Month Report Card: Top Small Forwards in Fantasy Basketball
First Month Report Card: Top Power Forwards in Fantasy Basketball
First Month Report Card: Top Centers in Fantasy Basketball

Spoiler Alert Ahead!

***

If you can’t listen to the podcast, here are our waiver wire recommendations.

Courtney Lee
Jerryd Bayless
C.J. Miles
Rodrigue Beaubois

Deep League Specials:

Kirk Hinrich
Ed Davis

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Day 32 of 124: Where Tyrus Thomas Beckons You with his Sweet Siren Call

Patrick — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:42:07 +0000

Line of the Night: Anyone who listens to the podcast knows that I went all in on Stephen Curry (3.58 WARP) this year in my personal leagues. Well, I couldn’t be happier this morning thanks to a season-high 32 points from Curry, who shot 12-19 from the field and added 6 threes, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals in a 101-93 win over the Blazers. Does it make the two weeks he was stashed on my bench all forgotten? No. But it is nice to see him playing like the Curry of old in his third back from that ankle sprain.

And now I can almost guarantee he sprains his ankle in the Warriors’ next game.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Love (3.17), the number one fantasy PF over the first month of the season, continues to shine with his own specific brand of basketball – 31 points, 4 threes, 10 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks in a win over the Mavs. Ricky Rubio (1.07) added 17 points, 12 assists, 4 steals (and 7 turnovers…) in the win. He’s given the team a 1-2 punch that Wolves’ fans will be able to enjoy for at least the next three years after the team signed Love to an unusual contract extension.

The Thunder beat the Hornets in spite of Russell Westbrook’s worst efforts (more on that below) thanks to Kevin Durant (2.36) who scored a very efficient 25 points, adding 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks. James Harden (1.18) managed to score 18 points by only taking 5 shots, mostly by going 9-10 from the line.

Still Wade-less (but getting close), the Miami Heat are getting mad contributions from Chris Bosh (2.21) – 27 points (on 12-15 from the field) – and LeBron James (1.86) – 32 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists. Even Mario Chalmers (1.34) had another good game with 16 points, going 3-5 from three. The Pistons’ big contribution came from… well, we’ll get to that.

Danilo Gallinari (2.21) is currently ranked number 7 on our player rater for the year thanks to games like this – 23 points on 8-12 shooting from the field, with 5 assists and 3 blocks against the Kings. Andre Miller (1.48) continues to be a nice surprise off the Nuggets bench. He had 15 points and 10 assists last night. DeMarcus Cousins (0.71) led Sacramento with 17 and 15. He is now averaging 11 rebounds a game this year (and 4.6 on the offensive glass) no doubt “helped” by the fact that the Kings are shooting less than 40% from the field as a team.

On a night where Kyle Lowry (0.13) almost had a triple double with 8-8-10 and yet shot 2-16 from the floor, Kevin Martin (1.80) was a much more palatable 5-12 from three on his way to 29 points for the Rockets, while Samuel Dalembert (0,74) added 18 boards.

And Deron Williams’ (1.48) owners have to be happy not only that he had 34 points and 11 assists in a win over the Sixers, but that he actually shot 50% from the field doing it. Kris Humphries (0.76) added 13 points and 19 boards in the game, while MarShon Brooks sat out again for the team with a sore Achilles tendon.

Finally, I don’t think there was a baby hook without Roy Hibbert’s (1.75) name on it last night against the Bulls on his way to 20 points (on 9-14 shooting), adding 8 rebounds and 4 blocks in a win over the Bulls. If you missed the game, Brian Scalabrine was trusted with the biggest shot of the game for the Bulls, which doesn’t even happen in Brian Scalabrine’s own dreams.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Oh, Tyrus Thomas (2.77)! The Greek Siren of fantasy basketball. He lures you in with his enchanting potential and then destroys you once you actually pick him up. Well, Thomas is calling for you again – against the Wizards he blocked what I can only assume is a career high 9 shots, adding 13 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals in 33 minutes on the court. If you were starting Thomas last night despite all the horrible games leading up to this one, congratulations! If he is currently available in your league, Thomas is starting for a Bobcats team without much else, is going to get plenty of run the rest of the season, does have tons of upside, and is blocking a lot of shots right now… just don’t ask me to come save you when he shipwrecks your boat next week.

Pick Up Lines: What the hell was going on last night? With Tayshaun Prince missing last night’s Pistons’ game with a personal matter, Austin Daye (2.08) got 30 minutes of run and scored a career high 28 points, hitting 4 threes and grabbing 6 rebounds (Daye had hit only 1 three all year prior to this game). Not to rain on the parade today, but with Prince likely back for the Pistons next game on Friday, leave Daye on waivers for now unless you happen to play in a really deep league. Check out his game log from last season, Daye has had games like this in the past, only to come right back down to earth in his next game.

Linas Kleiza (1.74) saw a season high 33 minutes for the Raptors thanks to a double-OT game and scored a season-high 25 points, hitting 4 threes and grabbing 5 boards. Double-OT games aside, Kleiza isn’t seeing consistent enough minutes to warrant a pick-up, but I would watch him to see how his minutes shake out in that ever changing Toronto rotation.

Ronnie Brewer (1.53) was supposed to be a sleeper LAST season after the Bulls signed him to be their starting SG. However, with the Luol Deng injury, Brewer got the starting nod and scored 20 points, adding 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals against Danny Granger and the Pacers. Brewer makes a nice pickup while Deng is out as long as you’re not expecting anymore 20/10 double-doubles. But according to Adrian Wojnarowski, Deng is apparently going to play through his injury (torn ligaments in his left wrist… ouch) and could be back on the court by next week, making Brewer a potential short-term play only.

Chandler Parsons (1.61), who was in a bit of a funk recently, bounced back with a nice 16 point, 7 rebound, 5 assist, 2 steal, 2 block game against the Bucks. He has sneaky high fantasy value as long as he’s filling the box score like that.

Not to be outdone by Tyrus Thomas, Darko Milicic (1.48) blocked 7 shots of his own against the Mavs, adding 8 points and 7 rebounds. Do you know what I love about Darko? Absolutely nothing.

With Marcus Thornton day-to-day with a thigh bruise that just won’t quit, Jimmer Fredette (1.42) got the start and hit 5 threes on his way to 19 points in 36 minutes. Jimmer is already owned in 37% of Yahoo leagues, which is crazy high considering the little he’s been doing this year, but if he’s available he makes a good spot start as long as Thornton is out. Backup PG Isaiah Thomas (0.85) – 16 points and 6 assists – also makes a decent play in deeper leagues.

With Luke Ridnour out with a sore left knee, Wayne Ellington (1.07) got the start at SG, played 38 minutes and scored 16 points while blocking a couple shots. Ellington is a very low end fantasy option even getting big minutes and could only be worth a pickup in deep leagues if Ridnour were to miss time.

Tiago Splitter (0.93) – with 16 and 8 – continues to put up solid lines off the Spurs’ bench in limited minutes. The Spurs’ second unit seems to be working well together lately, but I’m still hesitant to believe that Splitter can continue to put up double-double type lines getting only 20 minutes a game.

Al Jefferson was a late scratch from the Jazz game with a swollen right ankle, so Derrick Favors (0.69) got the starting nod and exploded for 16 and 12 in 42 minutes. Favors has shown he can be a fantasy beast when getting the minutes, but ironically, he’s stuck in the same position Paul Millsap was a few years ago behind two very good starters. Jefferson is day-to-day with the injury, but it doesn’t sound serious, so I wouldn’t go all in on Favors.

On last week’s podcast, Erik and I threw out that the Augustin injury might set a series of events in motion that would catapult Boris Diaw back into the starting lineup. Much more anti-climatically, journeyman Matt Carroll (0.37) got the start for the Bobcats and scored 17 points on 7-10 shooting. He makes a very, very low end spot starter while Augustin is out. And hey, I actually drafted him in my 30-team league.

With Andrew Bogut leaving last night’s game with a sprained ankle, Drew Gooden (0.89) took over and played 28 minutes, scoring 11 points with 3 steals (and grabbed an incredibly weak 2 boards). Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times (no more credible source than the Racine Times in my book) tweeted that Bogut is expected to miss at least the next few games with the injury, likely giving Gooden the starting nod over that span. Ride the double-doubles for now.

Non-Pick Up Lines: I’d avoid picking up anyone else on the Bucks other than Gooden, including Mike Dunleavy (1.20) who hit 3 threes on his way to 18 points in 28 minutes off the bench and Ersan Ilyasova (0,21) who grabbed an insane 19 boards in 28 minutes off the bench for the Bucks. Scott Skiles went 13 deep in his rotation last night – giving all his starters other than Brandon Jennings less than 20 minutes of run. To quote my father-in-law, the Bucks don’t know whether they’re coming or going right now.

Danny Green (1.10) continues to do just enough off the Spurs bench to ruin any value that Kawhi Leonard might have in the starting role with Manu is out. He did have 10-5-5 last night, but it was his first fantasy worth game in over a week.

GUSTAVO! We have another Gustavo Ayon (1.15) sighting. Ayon put up 16 points in 17 minutes off the Hornets bench, shooting 8-10 from the field and adding 3 steals. While I’d love to see Ayon get more time, he’s third on the team’s depth chart right now and is not going to be fantasy viable averaging less than 10 minutes a game.

Biggest Loser (aka, opportunity does not equal success): Two players with the opportunity to get more run this week thanks to injuries completely fell on their faces last night. Lamar Odom (-1.56), who is starting in place of the injured Dirk Nowitzki, shot 2-14 from the floor (in only 17 minutes!) and finished with 5 points against the Wolves. Get well soon Dirk!

Meanwhile, Kemba Walker (-0.75) was able to take the reigns of the Charlotte offense thanks to the D.J. Augustin injury, but made the least of the opportunity by shooting 4-19 from the field in a 92-75 loss to the Wizards. The Wizards! He did have some decent peripheral stats though, finishing with 8 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists.

As efficient as Durant and Harden were for the Thunder, Russell Westbrook (-0.94) nearly pissed it all away with a 5-to-7 assist to turnover ratio and 4-14 shooting performance against the Hornets. Got to hand it to Westbrook, he doesn’t half-ass anything; when he flames out, he flames out hard.

Word on the street is that teams have figured out that Byron Mullens (-0.77) is a one-dimensional mid-range jump shooter who Paul Silas described as soft as the hair on a baby’s ass (that last part may not be true). What is true is that teams are starting to shut him down and he’s losing out on minutes to shot blocking savant Bismack Biyombo (not soft!). Mullens played only 18 minutes last night, scoring 5 points on 1-6 shooting. It was a brief, but fun ride for Mullens. Now go ahead and drop him until he learns how to do something other than take jump shots.

***

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Day 29 of 124: Washington Can’t Handle The Truth

Erik — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:09:20 +0000

“The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”

- Winston Churchill

No Rajon Rondo (wrist), no Ray Allen (sprained ankle), No problem! Paul “The Truth” Pierce (2.84) was there to explode for our Line of the Night. He did do it against the lowly Washington Wizards, but hey, the man virtually did it alone (sorry Mr. Garnett, you and some other guys helped a bit too). That’s why the dude’s got a championship ring. He steps up when he’s needed the most and has finally given his owners a huge sigh of relief that he’s finally entered arrived onto the fantasy scene. He was two boards shy of a trip-dub with 34 points (10-15 from the field) – talk about accuracy, wow!, 8 rebounds, 10 assists, and 3 steals. What a way to end the week!

Since the Celtics are Patrick’s team, in Patrick-blogging fashion, here’s a video recap of that Celtics-Wizards matchup.

Honorable Mentions: John Wall (1.91) managed a productive night in a losing effort for the Wizards. Yup, the kid did well. But somehow, someone, somewhere in Wizards’ management has to shake things up. Or else it won’t be too long until Wall will be in a prime position to join the many elite players who have “demanded to be traded”. For now, Wall has been the lone bright spot for the Wiz with his 27 points (9-9 from the line), 10 rebounds, and 7 dishes. He was three dimes shy of a 3 x 2. Nice!

LeBron James (1.79) led the Miami in a losing effort against the Milwaukee Bucks. Yes, the MILWAUKEE BUCKS! And that was with S-Jax coming off the bench. Nonetheless, I’m sure most non-Heat-fan, James owners didn’t really care about Miami’s latest notch in the “L” column, surely enjoyed his 28 points , and 13 rebounds. LBJ went 12-13 from the line which was a nice bonus since he’s not a really a freethrow shooting maven. He added 5 assists, but with Dwyane Wade still out, he didn’t have many viable options to pass to, so we understand.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Twilight Zone, Pau Gasol (1.76) decided to show us all that he can pass the ball as good as Marc can. He went into Euro-finesse mode, played some PF-PG hybrid, winding up with a rather rare line (for power forwards that is) with 8 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists, and 3 rejections! It’s not what I drafted him for, but it put a smile on my face nonetheless.

DeAndre Jordan (1.71) appears to be slowly getting the hang of being the L.A. Clippers’ starting center. He’s been inconsistent at best prior to the last couple of games. Many drafters were quite high on him coming into the season, and Jordan appears to molding himself up to those projected expectations. While we don’t foresee him to do 16 points and 16 rebounds with 2 blocks on a nightly basis (just yet), seeing occasional impressive line like these are good for starters.

It didn’t happen as soon as I may have wanted it, but it’s here, now. Brandon Jennings (1.48) looks like he’s finally blossoming into a remarkable, high-tier point guard. He’s been on fire lately and it’s quite possible that he’s grown, matured and improved to the point that he can lead Milwaukee passed elite teams in the NBA (like Miami) with 23 points (12-13 from the line), 6 boards, 6 dimes, and 2 steals. In the arena of Jennings’ improvement, the battle is going to be all about him remaining consistent. Hopefully this will be the season that he’s up to the task.
***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Randy Foye (1.96) (4% owned) made the most of yet another CP3-missed game. He and Mo-Will had solid nights versus the Raptors. Foye’s value will plummet once again when Chris Paul returns. So he’s probably good for another spot start or two (tops) this week. He hammered Toronto with a stat sheet-filling line of 15 points (3 threes, 5-8 from the field), and 4 assists, while getting two steals and three blocks.

Pick Up Lines: Leandro Barbosa (1.80) (21% owned) is someone I mentioned in my latest post on Sports Illustrated. He’s so far been the Raptors’ most consistent scorer off the bench so far this season. So if your fantasy team needs a boost in scoring, Barbosa might just be the pick-up for you! He finished the night with 19 points (3 threes), and 3 steals.

Mo Williams (1.32) (48% owned) once again proved that he’s probably worth starting on other NBA rosters. *cough*Lakers*cough* He’s been so hot lately, the Clippers have opted to turn off the heater in the team bus. Sadly, we’re probably not going to see him deliver 26 points (3 threes, 7-7 from the line) again when Chris Paul (who’s expected to be eased back into the rotation THIS week) returns.

Bismack Biyombo (1.26) (4% owned) had 11 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 blocks in ONLY 18 minutes! If you’re aggressive and in a standard league, go ahead and stash him now and watch him ripen as the season progresses. If you’re in a deep league then… “Grab! Grab NOW! Hurry!”

Biggest Loser: I know that Nels in particular was quite high on Amir Johnson (-0.97). I wonder how painful Johnson’s one-point-one-rebound night was? I’m sure it must have left a damn awful taste on their fantasy palates to say the least. He should actually perform better when Andrea Bargnani returns to action.

Mario Chalmers (-0.96) had a nasty night with 12 points and two assists. No it wasn’t quite worth his six turnovers, especially considering he did go 4-14 from the field. He should bounce back though. So just chalk this one up to a bad night. He was limping at some point though, so keep your ears to the ground regarding his status.

Injury of the Night: D.J. Augustin (-0.64) has a “slight crack” between two bones in his right toe, and is expected to miss at least three games. Rookie Kemba Walker will now get an opportunity to show the NBA Universe what he can really do.

***

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Day 28 of 124: We Can Build a Better Gasol

Patrick — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 13:15:44 +0000

Line of the Night: Thanks to the Zach Randolph injury, Marc Gasol (3.62 WARP) is having the best season of his career in 2012 (and outplaying his brother). Gasol’s latest line included 20 points (on 8-11 from the field), with 11 rebounds, 5 assists and 6 blocks in a 30-point blowout win over the Kings. Part of the reason for his amazing play is that Gasol is currently averaging a career high 38 minutes (compared to 32 last season). Ride the wave for now, but think about flipping Gasol at his high point right before Randolph comes back, if you can.

Honorable Mentions: No Dwyane Wade? No problem. LeBron James (3.11) led the Miami Heat to a win over the Sixers with box score filling 28 points, 9 boards, 5 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks. His new partner in crime, Chris Bosh (2.71), scored 30 points of his own and grabbed 7 rebounds with 2 blocks. On a night where Spencer Hawes sat for his third straight game and Andre Iguodala (-0.68) was quiet, Louis Williams (1.22) had the best fantasy game for the Sixers with 22 points, going 4-6 from three.

It may have taken 2 overtimes to get there, but Danilo Gallinari (2.22) outdueled the man he was traded for with 37 points – half of which came from his 18-20 free throw shooting – adding 11 rebounds. Carmelo Anthony (-0.20) was only 10-30 from the field (and 1-7 from three) in this game with 6 TOs, but he did finish with 25 points and 10 boards. Iman Shumpert (1.31) continues to make the case that he’s the team’s only choice at SG when Baron Davis returns with an 18 point and 7 assist performance. Predictability, Knicks’ fans already want to to completely blow up this team.

Ricky Rubio (2.01) continues to bring happiness into everyone’s lives. His latest against the Jazz included 17 points, 11 assists and 4 steals in 39 minutes of run (so much for needing to bring the kid along slowly). Rubio is now averaging 2.4 steals a game to go along with 8.3 assists. For the Jazz, Paul Millsap (1.63) scored 26 points, adding 9 rebounds and 4 assists. So much for Derrick Favors being the guy who was going to bury Millsap.

The Hornets and Mavs combined to shoot 39% on the night, so it’s no surprise that Emeka Okafor (0.89) had a huge 16 point, 17 rebound game against the Mavs. Shawn Marion (0.97) also grabbed a season-high 12 rebounds in this game.

Welcome back Rodney Stuckey (1.68). If comments on GTMR are any indication, Stuckey has been one of the most dropped players in leagues recently. And with good reason – after missing a number of games with injury, he came back only to lose his starting job to Brandon Knight. But Stuckey was inserted back into the Pistons’ starting lineup against the Blazers (Ben Gordon sat with a shoulder injury) and he finished with 28 points, 4 threes and 5 assists. Stuckey was dealing with the lingering effects of a groin injury upon his return, so if he was dropped in your league recently he’s definitely worth an add (even when Gordon returns).

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: O.J. Mayo (1.56) sides under our generous 50% ownership bar for waiver wire players (he’s 41% owned in Yahoo leagues). He scored 22 points and hit 6 threes in 27 minutes in that blowout against the Kings. One rule of waiver wire pickups is never to trust a performance that came in a game that got out of hand early and Mayo is no exception to that rule. While his minutes have been creeping up recently, he’s still not seeing enough time to warrant a pickup unless you play in a 14+ team league. And in that case, he’s already owned.

Other blowout lines from that game included Marreese Speights (1.25), who finished with 12 points and 15 rebounds for the Griz, Jimmer Fredette (1.42), who got 33 minutes of run for the Kings and scored 20 points with 6 assists, and Donte Greene (1.30), who also got 33 minutes off the bench to score 19 points, adding 7 rebounds. I know the Kings are horrible, but even they only get completely destroyed every 4th or 5th game, leaving Fredette and Greene with minimal to no fantasy value on most nights.

Pick Up Lines: With Tim Duncan sitting out yesterday with old age, Tiago Splitter (1.42) got the second most run of the season (32 minutes) and had a huge 25 point (on 11-13 shooting), 10 rebound and 4 assist game against Houston. With Duncan expected back in the lineup for the Spurs’ next game, expect Splitter to go back to his 8 point, 6 rebound ways.

However, if Duncan were to miss any additional time, both Splitter and Matt Bonner (0.89) become worth a look. Bonner actually got the start at PF in Duncan’s place and was 4-11 from three against Houston. He’s the type of guy to add if you crush hard on the Ryan Anderson types.

Similarly, Timofey Mozgov (1.38) rocked a double-OT to score 16 points, adding 7 rebounds and 3 blocks in 30 minutes. And the only way I’d recommend him is if the Nuggets would promise they’d play nothing but double-OT games the rest of the season.

With Jason Kidd and Jason Terry unable to buy a basket against the Hornets and Vince Carter out with a sprained left foot, Delonte West (1.37) scored an efficient 16 points, adding 5 rebounds and 6 assists while starting at SG. West’s minutes have been all over the place even as a starter with Carter out, so I’d want to see him repeat his performance at least once before picking him up.

In case you missed it (I did) Richard Hamilton (0.19) back and starting for the Bulls. He just dropped 20 on the Bobcats and is worth look a look in deepish leagues if you need points. And the Bulls’ PG situation is just getting ridiculous. With Rose out and backup to the backup John Lucas injured, the team signed veteran Mike James (0.66) recently. You know, the 36 year old Mike James who didn’t play in the league last season? Well, James got 16 minutes off the bench and dished out 10 assists. He’s not worth a pickup, I just thought it was one of the most unexpected lines we’ll see all season.

And with Joakim Noah a late scratch from the Bulls’ game with an ankle sprain, Omer Asik (0.23) did something Noah hasn’t been able to do all season, and that’s grab 15 rebounds for the Bulls. Noah I’d guess is day-to-day with the injury, but if you are really hurting for big men, it can’t hurt to grab Asik just in case. As Derrick Rose is demonstrating, day-to-day this year really means I’m going to be out two weeks.

Deep League Special: Patrick Patterson (0.57) has struggled a bit working his way back from ankle surgery, but he’s become the Rockets’ primary big off the bench in recent games. I’d like to see him gain a little more consistency before picking him up, but he’s worth a stash if you’re in a huge league that has no big men on waivers. Courtney Lee (0.37) is also worth a look now that he’s back from a calf injury and coming off the bench for the Rockets. And with Devin Harris imploding, now is the time to stash Earl Watson (0.20) in hopes that he becomes the Jazz starting PG. Watson is already playing more minutes than Harris, and he had 10 points and 7 assists in their game yesterday.

Great Feats in Per Minute Production: Hawks’ PG Jannero Pargo (1.28) scored 14 points and dished 6 assists in 15 minutes on the court in a blowout win over the Cavs. Nice D Cleveland.

Injury of the Night: Dirk Nowitzki – who sat out last night’s Mavs game – is going to miss at least the next three games to work on strengthening his sore right knee. According to Coach Rick Carlisle, Nowitzki needs “an uninterrupted eight days of work to resolve some physical issues and conditioning issues.”

According to Dirk, “I couldn’t go by anybody off the dribble and that’s part of my game. Right now I’m basically a pop-up shooter every time I caught it, and if I didn’t have (the shot), I had to swing it because I just couldn’t make a move, couldn’t go by anybody.”

Lamar Odom was inserted into Dirk’s starting spot on Saturday night and responded with a season high 16 shots to finish with 16 points and 4 boards. It was (sadly) one of Odom’s better games of the season. While the Odom we knew on the Lakers had his soul stolen by the Kardashians, Dirk owners and anyone in need of a short-term low-end fill in at PF may want to pick up Odom to plug into their lineups for the next week.

Dwyane Wade owners have to be a bit worried. Wade has yet to talk to the media about his latest injuries and the team is not giving any timetable for when we’ll see him on the court again. Plus, the Heat are 6-0 this season without Wade on the court, so it’s not like they are the Knicks in desperation mode waiting for Baron Davis to save them. This means that it’s likely Wade misses at least a few more games – and possibly a lot more time. Those of you in weekly leagues are going to want to sit Wade this week unless more detailed information comes out today. And if you have someone in your league willing to take Wade off your hands, you may want to think about making that trade.

Derrick Rose owners can breathe a little easier than Wade owners. Rose, who missed the Bulls last four games with a toe injury, was a game time scratch before each of the Bulls last two games. According to coach Tom Thibodeau, “He’s day-to-day. Our doctors have said that basically it’s a sprain, and it’s a pain-tolerance thing. So once the swelling goes down and he can tolerate the pain, he can play.”

Biggest Loser: D.J. Augustin (-1.64) was manhandled by the Bulls’ defenders all game in their matchup against Chicago. He finished with 3 points on 1-6 shooting, with 3 assists and 4 turnovers in only 26 minutes. Kemba Walker (-0.43) wasn’t much better, scoring 4 points on 1-5 shooting. Fortunately, the Bobcats head off to play the Nets in their next game.

And what happens when you shoot 5-21 from the floor with 4 turnovers? If you’re Kevin Love (-1.42), it means a near biggest loser performance even if you also score 15 points and add 8 rebounds in the same game. Love has now shot a combined 17-57 over the Wolves last three games. We know you like your 30/30 games, but pressing much Kevin?

***

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Day 25 of 124: One Painful Season

Patrick — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:32:40 +0000

Line of the Night: Monta Ellis (2.72) scored 30 points in a loss to the Nets, adding 5 assists and a category-winning 6 steals in 37 minutes on the court. If you were presented with a decision between drafting Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry before the start of the season, who would have thought that Ellis would have been the correct answer?

Honorable Mentions: Here is something you won’t hear often – the New Jersey Nets were the best team for fantasy purposes last night. Deron Williams (2.21) nearly triple-doubled with 24 points, 8 rebounds and 10 assists. Kris Humphries (2.33) added 18 points, 15 rebounds and 4 blocked shots. And MarShon Brooks (1.62) scored a career-high 22 points and added 8 boards and 6 assists in the game. Brooks has now scored in double-digits in the Nets last 7 games and is an obvious must own in all leagues. I am so glad I dropped him in one of the GMTR Readers’ leagues a couple weeks ago…

// sarcasm //

Joe Johnson (2.57) continues to perform like the old (and by old I mean young) Joe Johnson since the Al Horford injury. Last night’s line against the Blazers included 24 points, 4 threes, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and a couple steals. There are no red flags in his recent lines that would suggest he’s a sell high candidate. He’s simply taking more shots since Horford went down. LaMarcus Aldridge (1.39) fantasy-led the Blazers with 20 and 11 in the game.

***

Andre Miller (2.51) had by far his best game of the season with an overtime-assisted 28 points, 8 rebounds and 10 assists in 39 minutes on the court for the Nuggets. Miller also got a little extra run because Rudy Fernandez missed the game with injury. We have seen Miller explode a few times already this season only to settle back down in the Nuggets’ next game.

DeAndre Jordan (2.43) had 19 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocked shots in a win over the Mavs. He’s now back to winning the battle of the blocks against JaVale McGee at 3.1 a game to McGee’s 3.0.

And in the battle of point guards who were off to slow starts but are now heating up, Russell Westbrook’s (1.76) 36 points and 7 assists was slightly more impressive than John Wall’s (1.31) 25 points, 7 boards and 8 assists. That is now 3 straight good-to-great games from Wall, who looks to be turning a corner on the season. OKC lost the game, but Kevin Durant (2.19) out dueled everyone in terms of fantasy lines with 33 points, 8 boards, 3 steals and 2 blocks.

Steve Nash (2.31) scored a season-high 26 points against the Knicks on 9-12 shooting, adding 5 rebounds and 11 assists in 38 minutes. And Amare Stoudemire (0.11) had his best game in a week with 23 points and 7 rebounds in the loss. Baron Davis can’t come soon enough for Amare.

And, of course, there is the beast Dwight Howard (2.26). In a night where there were some ridiculous rebounding numbers put up (including 19 by DeMarcus Cousins and 17 each by Love, Griffin and Chandler), Howard’s 25 rebounds were the most ridiculous of all. He also scored 24 points and blocked 3 shots in an overtime loss to the Spurs. Howard is now averaging 15.6 rebounds a game this season. Take that Kevin Love!

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: As long as we’re partying like it’s 2006, Tayshaun Prince (2.00) is swinging by that party with a 30-pack. Prince scored a season-high 29 points and hit 3 threes in a loss to the Wolves. That’s three straight 20+ scoring games for Prince, who seems to have broken out of his early season funk. Prince has never been an elite scorer – so I doubt he’ll keep this up – but is still worth a look in shallow leagues (he’s already 27% owned) as long as he’s rolling like this.

Pick Up Lines: Thanks to the Chris Paul injury, Mo Williams (1.89) returned from his own injury to play 35 minutes and score 26 points on 11-15 shooting. I have two thoughts on this. First, he got lucky that his shot was falling so well in this game, and second, he’ll continue to get some big run off the bench as long as Paul is out (see more on that below) so consider him a short-term add in most daily leagues.

It’s been a while since Anthony Tolliver (1.66) grace GMTR with his presence. But Tolliver came off the Wolves’ bench to go 3-5 from three and finished with 11 points, 5 rebounds and 2 steals. Meanwhile, Derrick Williams saw a measly 15 minutes off the bench and didn’t do much in the game. While we like Tolliver’s game as an incredibly poor man’s version of Ryan Anderson, he’s not seeing consistent enough minutes to warrant picking up.

Gary Forbes (1.37) got a season high 19 minutes and scored 18 points for the Raptors in a blowout loss to the Celtics 18 points. It was a blowout, so don’t read too much into it. On the other hand, fantasy-favorite James Johnson (-0.95) was given the start over Rasual Butler in this game. Unfortunately, he also played like Rasual Butler by shooting 1-7 from the floor and not doing much of anything else. Still, if you are a James Johnson junkie, I’d add him now as long as he keeps the starting job.

Speaking of new starters, Markieff Morris (-0.33) got the start for the Suns over Channing Frye. Morris lasted all of 5 minutes before leaving the game with a stomach virus, but he’s still worth a look in most leagues provided he keeps the starting job.

Trevor Ariza (1.16) is back after missing 8 games for the Hornets, scoring 18 points and adding 5 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals. That line is the ceiling of what you’ll get from Ariza, who can just as easily go 2-10 from the floor on any given night. If you can live with his horrible percentages, Ariza just might be hanging out on your wire after being dropped by an impatient owner.

Quick Hits: Mickael Pietrus (1.10) isn’t getting a ton of minutes for the Celtics, but 11 of the 14 shots he’s made so far this year have been threes and his role is slowly growing on a Celtics team that could use a little energy. Ok, a lot of energy. Last night’s 12 points and 4 threes is a line that plays in deep leagues.

Francisco Garcia’s (1.08) minutes have also been creeping up for the Kings. Last night’s 16 points, 5 boards, 2 steals and a block is a good representation of what you can expect from him at his best.

As much as we all love Gustavo Ayon (GUSTAVO!), the reality is that Jason Smith (0.76) is the new starting PF for the Hornets. He had 14 and 6 in 29 minutes on the court and is available in nearly all leagues provided your ok with his low upside.

And with Marcus Camby out for Portland, old man Kurt Thomas (0.55) has entered the Blazers’ starting lineup. He had 8 points, 9 rebounds and a block and makes an ok short-term play while Camby is out if you are really hurting for big men.

Injuries of the Night: Nicolas Batum left last night game against the Hawks after being poked in the eye by Tracy McGrady during the second quarter. According to Blazers Edge, x-rays came back negative for an orbital fracture and that the injury “isn’t serious”. Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com reported that Batum said he will play in Portland’s next game on Friday.

Rajon Rondo also left the Celtics game after falling on his wrist on a hard foul by Linas Kleiza when he was driving to the basket. The good news is that Rondo stayed in the game briefly to take his foul shots and is day-to-day with a wrist injury that could have been a lot worse.

In other injury updates, Derrick Rose’s injury is now being described as tuff toe. He’s described the pain as a 6 or 7 out of 10 and is questionable for the Bulls’ game on Friday. If he can’t go C.J. Watson becomes a great short-term play.

And Dwyane Wade owners have to be troubled by the fact that he’s dealing with both a sore left foot and a calf strain which kept him out of Tuesday’s game against the Spurs. He’s been day-to-day for what seems like the entire year and is officially questionable for tonight’s Heat game. It’s tough for find any more updates on Wade’s injury than that, but it’s easy to find a few dozen stories about his $230,000 birthday present. If Wade doesn’t play, look to see if Mike Miller can have a repeat performance of his game on Tuesday.

Chris Paul has missed the Clippers’ last 3 games with a strained left hamstring. According to Vinny Del Negro, Paul is currently day-to-day with no timetable for return. Randy Foye is starting in his absence, but has shot 29% from the floor in three starts. Mo Williams makes a much better pickup in Paul’s absence.

Biggest Loser: I feel like I’m picking on DeMar DeRozan (-1.43) at this point. It’s just that he’s owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues at the moment and his 11 points on 4-16 from the field with 5 turnovers was the single worst fantasy line out of 224 players last night. You would have been better off playing Jimmer Fredette (-1.17) and getting his 0-4 shooting in 6 minutes than DeRozan.

Bust Town; Population: Jared Dudley (-1.01). Dudley was mercifully removed from the Suns starting lineup last night in place of Ronnie Price. He played a total of 17 minutes and didn’t score, finishing with 1 board and 1 assist. Time to drop Dudley if you’ve been holding on to him in hopes that his shooting would improve.

***

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What Does Zaza Pachulia Bring to the Table?

Patrick — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 11:46:01 +0000

Yesterday’s big injury news came with reports that Al Horford was expected to miss the next three-to-four months with a torn pectoral muscle in his left shoulder. It was an injury that happened in the first quarter of Wednesday game against the Pacers.

It’s a huge blow to Horford’s fantasy owners. Even a best case scenario puts him back on the court at the very end of the regular season, so unless you’re in a keeper league, Horford can be dropped. Hawks’ backup center Zaza Pachulia now steps into the starting rotation for the Hawks. Zaza hasn’t seen starter’s minutes on a consistent basis since George W. Bush was in the White House, so what can we realistically expect from him this season?

Well, we currently have three pieces of evidence. Pachulia has now played two games of 30+ minutes at center for the Hawks (his first start and the game Horford got hurt in). He followed up an 11 point, 7 rebound game in the first game with a double-double last night. Against the Bobcats, he finished with 10 points and 10 boards. He also had 4 assists and a block. Note, however, that the game was against the Bobcats.

Two games is a small sample size. And unfortunately, going back two years I found a total of only 6 games in which Zaza started and played at least 20 minutes (Al Horford has been a healthy guy historically). In those 6 games, Pachulia averaged 7.8 points, 7.7 and 0.3 blocks a game.

So without much data to go with, I’ll turn to the GMTR projection system, which is the thing we used to generate our 2011-12 stat projections before the start of the season. The system uses a combination of player comps, past performance, and estimated minutes to forecast future performance. Projecting out Pachulia at 30 minutes a game for 2011-12, we come up with:

Pts: 7.8
Reb: 7.6
Ast: 1.5
Stl: 0.7
Blk: 0.6
FG%: 47%
FT%: 75%

So – interestingly enough – our projections almost exactly lineup with what he’s done as a starter the past couple of seasons. Throw that line into a basic fantasy basketball rating system and Pachulia comes out around 150-160 on the list thanks mostly to his above average rebounding. That means Pachulia is barely worth owning in a normal 12-team league as a bench player, but should be owned in all 14+ team leagues. Think of him like a very poor man’s version of Anderson Varejao.

There is the possibility that the Hawks try and find a new center to replace Pachulia in the starting lineup or at least split time with him. But the names in free agency are not pretty – Joel Pryzbilla and Erick Dampier are names being thrown out – so consider Pachulia the Hawks’ starter for the immediate future even though coach Larry Drew has yet to commit to him long term.

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Day 18 of 124: Where John Lucas Does his Best Derrick Rose Impersonation

Patrick — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:34:25 +0000

Line of the Night: Kevin Durant (2.86). On a night where Old Man Kobe dropped 40 again, it was actually Durant’s 29 points on 11-17 shooting, with 10 rebounds, 3 threes and 4 blocks that was the best of the night for fantasy owners. Just an amazing performance from Durant considering this was the Thunder’s fifth game in six days. And fifth win in six days.

Honorable Mentions: Chris Paul (2.61) scored 27 points, adding 6 rebounds, 11 assists and 3 steals as the Clippers beat the Heat in OT. DeAndre Jordan (1.41) decided that no one was going to invade his airspace as he blocked 6 shots and grabbed 11 boards in the game. Jordan is now averaging an insane 3.4 blocks a game this season.

LeBron James (-0.32) did have 23 points, 13 boards and 7 assists in the game, but his 37% shooting from the floor and 53% from the line directly led to the Heat loss. Mario Chalmers (1.39) continues to play like he’s a good PG – he had 18 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists in the game and has quickly made Norris Cole (-1.27) an afterthought. And good news for Dwyane Wade (0.68) owners – he was back in the lineup last night and finished with 17 points on… 6-17 shooting. The good news is that he’s back, not the shooting.

***

As mentioned above, Kobe Bryant (2.32) dropped 40 points for the second night in a row, adding 8 rebounds and 4 assists as the Lakers beat Utah in OT. He wants to prove he’s still got a little gas in the tank apparently. Al Jefferson couldn’t get his shot to fall in this game (he was 5-17 from the floor), so it was actually Paul Millsap (1.70) who led the Jazz with 29 points and 9 boards.

Really, there were a ton of good fantasy performances last night this could go on all day – Anthony Morrow (2.04) hit 5 threes on his way 23 points in a game where Denver and New Jersey combined to score 238 points. Morrow is officially warmed-up it seems, although he’s one of the only healthy wings on the Nets at the moment. Danilo Gallinari (2.03) scored 22 points on 7-11 shooting in the game.

Roy Hibbert (1.86) scored 12 points with 11 rebounds and 4 blocks against a Hawks team that lost Al Horford 6 minutes in to a left shoulder strain. If Horford can’t go by their next game, Zaza Pachulia is your new starting center Hawks fans! Lockout shortened NBA basketball, baby!

Tyreke Evans (1.85) scored 29 points and locked up the FT% category for his owners by going 14-14 from the line in a win over Toronto. Meanwhile DeMarcus Cousins (1.21) had 21 and 19 in the game and didn’t kill you in the FT% category by going 9-11 from the line. Jose Calderon (1.73) continues to impress. He had 13 points and 10 assists in the game.

Finally, the Blazers lost to the Magic 107-104, but the won the fantasy battle thanks to LaMarcus Aldridge (1.89), who had 23 points, 8 rebounds and 2 steals and Jamal Crawford (1.74) who came off the bench for near season high 30 minutes to score 24 points with 5 assists. Crawford owners, do yourself a favor and don’t look at his game log this season. It will depress.

Let’s move onto the good stuff…

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Jordan Farmar (2.38). I thought Deron Williams might have sat out last night for the Nets. No, Farmar just managed to score a game-high 26 points on 6-8 from three in less than 23 minutes off the bench in a crazy paced 123-115 game against the Nuggets. The Nets did trail big in this game (surprised?), giving Farmar more run than normal. Unless D-Will were to get hurt, it’s hard to imagine Farmar can maintain much of any fantasy value, even with the rest of the team doing their best impersonation of a MASH unit.

Pick Up Lines: In that same Nuggets/Nets game, the temptress known as Rudy Fernandez (2.28) scored 15 points, adding 5 rebounds, 8 assists, and 4 steals. Unlike Farmar, Fernandez is seeing a consistent 27-28 minutes a game and he’s shooting over 50% from the floor over his last 4 games. Grab him and ride out the hot streak if you’re looking for a guard.

Isaiah Thomas (1.62) – the extra “a” is so people don’t accuse him of running the Knicks into the ground – scored 20 points and added 6 assists off the bench for the Kings. The 5 foot 8 inch Thomas has gotten extra run the past two games because Marcus Thornton is day-to-day with a thigh injury. Jimmer Fredette (-0.39) is actually starting in place of Thornton, but was 3-10 the floor and didn’t do much else on the court. I’m guessing the fact that Thomas was guarded by Jose Calderon and Anthony Carter might have had something to do with this performance. Plus Thornton is expected back soon, so leave Thomas on waivers.

One PG who did sit out last night was Derrick Rose, who was wearing a walking boot yesterday after injuring his big toe on Tuesday. No Rose, no problem. The Bulls’ third string PG John Lucas (1.25) stepped up and nearly triple-doubled with 25 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists in 46 minutes on the count. Lucas clearly doesn’t lack in confidence – he jacked up a team high 28 shots in the game and was 1-7 from three. Any fantasy value that Lucas has is tied to Rose and a lesser extent C.J. Watson, both of whom are expected back soon if not by the Bulls next game. Still, Rose owners might want to protect themselves just in case and grab Lucas as an insurance policy.

Stop reading this and immediately grab Chandler Parsons (1.14) if he still happens to be available in your league (and he’s only owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues at the moment). Parsons was only 4-10 from the floor against the Spurs for 8 points, but he filled up the boxscore in other ways with 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals. As I mentioned in the comments of yesterday’s post, the scoring is going to be hit or miss for Parsons (get it), but he’s the type of player who is going to contribute in most of the other categories, including threes, steals and boards.

Quick Hits: Leandro Barbosa (1.03) saw 29 minutes off the bench for Toronto and finished with 24 points on 11-18 shooting. I’m not a huge fan of Barbosa as a mostly empty points guy, but his minutes are creeping up on a Raptors’ team that could clearly use some scoring. He’s worth a look if you need some points.

Corey Brewer (1.18) scored 19 points in only 16 minutes on the court for Denver by going 7-8 from the field and 3-3 from three. That’s an impressive display of per-minute scoring that won’t happen again anytime soon.

Omer Asik (0.79) had 14 rebounds for the Bulls, no doubt assisted by the Wizards’ inability to shoot straight. He’s getting 20+ minutes a game for the Bulls and is worth a look in deep leagues, but mostly he’s freaking out Noah owners who are seeing a lot of Noah on the Bulls’ bench in the fourth quarter of games.

Trevor Booker (0.26) saw 31 minutes in a start for the Wizards and finished with 8 points, 10 boards and a block. Booker isn’t going to light it up, but he can contribute to fantasy teams just based on the sheer number of minutes he’s getting as long as Andray Blatche remains out.

Sound the Shaking Things Up Alarm: One of the early coaching moves this season is to rearrange your underperforming starting lineup. First it was the Wizards, then possibly the Wolves, now it’s Gregg Popovich’s turn. Not satisfied with the defense of the Spurs this season Pop pushed Gary Neal to the bench and started the rookie Kawhi Leonard (0.22) at SG. It worked, because the Spurs’ won and Leonard finished with 11 points, 8 boards and a couple blocked shots in 38 minutes on the court. According to Pop, “He’s playing defense. That’s why he’s starting.” Leonard is worth an add in all leagues if he can stay in the starting lineup while Manu is out. Gary Neal is now droppable.

Biggest Loser: One of the Wizards many problems is that Nick Young (-1.12) is taking over 13 shots a game for the team. The Nick Young who is shooting 38% from the floor this season and has shot 43% for his career. Young was 2-11 from the floor against the Bulls and finished with 5 points, 3 rebounds and 0 assists for a Wizards team that could only muster 64 points on 31% shooting. 31%! John Wall (-0.53) was also 4-13 in that game, but at least he had 8 assists.

If you decided to start Carlos Boozer (-0.70) last night because he had a favorable matchup against the Wizards, well, I’m sorry to say you chose wrong. With John Lucas sucking up shot attempts like a Hoover vacuum, Boozer was only 2-7 from the floor and finished with 4 points and 6 rebounds.

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