Give Me The Rock

Instead of trying to keep up with the clusterf**k of free agent signings and trades this off season, it’s much easier to let other people do the heavy lifting and then link to their work while making derogatory comments in this post about how they lack the ability to make intelligent, coherent thoughts and they’re loser hacks because of it.

Nah, I wouldn’t do that to the fantasy basketball blogging community. They’re all good people. Even the ones I don’t know. You have to be to make a conscious decision to give up your time for no pay to basically write about basketball statistics for a made up fantasy game when there are other… ahem… slightly more arousing topics available to the would-be-blogger.

So, the community has done what I could not and has stayed on top of every* trade and free agent move this summer. And, believe it or not, they’ve had some smart things to say.

I already reviewed Brand pulling a Carlos Boozer and heading to the Sixers, but Maxmillien from Sport Chit Chat chimes in on Brand and also gives a thorough review of the Toronto/Indiana trade and Corey Maggette’s move to the Warriors.

Speaking of Corey Maggette and the Warriors, it’s a great signing… for Corey Maggette’s bank account. It’s not bad for his fantasy prospects either, although I’m not sure what the Warriors were thinking with the movie. “Hey, we need to be more like the 2007 Clippers” is not something you usually hear from smart basketball teams.

Stephen at Hoops Fantasy hits us up with the good news and bad news we can expect from Maggette joining Golden State. I’d personally lean more towards the good news for fantasy purposes. Nellie Ball makes everyone better!**

Brian McKitish of ESPN reviews all the free agent signings so far in some good detail. He also makes a valid point that I neglected to mention in my post about Brand (although it was brought up in the comments by Hawthorne Wingo). Chris Kaman comes out as a big winner in the Brand signing. Not that he’s going to get any better than he was last year; it’s that the trade allows him to maintain that same level of creepy goodness.

McKitish also loves Mickael Pietrus on the Magic. McKitish loves him to the point where I was worried that he was doing something inappropriate to his body while writing about Pietrus. From the article:

Pietrus is the perfect complement to a Magic team that, first, needed a shooting guard, and second, needed a defensive presence on the perimeter. Last season, he saw meaningful minutes in only one month (March), and he responded by averaging 12.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.1 3-pointers in 31.3 minutes per game.

Granted, Pietrus could be a breakout player if he slides into Orlando’s starting SG spot. McKitish is calling for Pietrus to see 35 minutes on the high end, which seems quite optimistic for a team that currently has 5 shooting guards on its roster. Pietrus isn’t quite as exciting at 25-27 minutes a game, although he still could be solid late-round sleeper material. I love you Mickael, just not that way.

The problem with sleepers is that once everyone starts calling them a sleeper, they’re likely overrated. If everything works out just right, Chris Duhon could have some legitimate fantasy value on the Knicks. “Everything” would include the Knicks finding a way to get rid of Starbury, Mike D’Antoni shunning Nate Robinson as a PG altogether, and Duhon playing up to his maximum capabilities.

Stephen Kersey of Hoops Fantasy thinks Duhon could become a 10 point, 8 assist type of player. Sure, it’s possible, but he could also remain a 6 point, 4 assist player. I think either outcome is about equally likely.

Screaming Sports discusses a whole bunch of moves and has this to say about the Bucks/Nets trade:

Look for Jefferson’s fantasy value to at least remain the same, if not go up with this trade. Jefferson will be receiving passes from Michael Redd and Mo Williams, both of whom will set him up nicely for easy baskets.

I’m not sure what’s so great about Michael Redd ‘s passes compared to Vince Carter’s, but ok, I’ll go with it.

Fantasy Basketball Daily discusses the current fantasy winners and losers of the off season. Beno Udrih? Always a winner.

Finally, via Pat’s Sixers Blog, Rotoworld sadly reports that Jamaal Tinsley’s magical mystery tour with the Indiana Pacers has come to an end. Store this in the “padding the word count with redundant words that mean the same thing as each other” file:

Jamaal Tinsley’s contract will likely be bought out by the Pacers, meaning there’s almost no chance he plays another game for the team.

* And when I say everything, I mean everything, including Brent Barry signing with the Rockets.

** Nellie ball guarantee does not apply to Austin Croshere or Chris Webber.

The rumored trade between the Pacers and Raptors involving Jermaine O’Neal for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and Toronto’s No. 17 pick is officially on. Well, kind of. Because of a league memorandum on trades, it can’t officially happen until July 9th, so we’ll all just pretend nothing has happened for the next couple weeks. These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…

From a fantasy point of view, there is all kinds of goodness spewing out of this trade.

Big Winner

Jose Calderon: He was a beast for the Raptors last year, averaging over 8 assists in only 30 minutes a game. Thanks to injuries to TJ Ford, Calderon started 56 games. Although by the end of the season the Raptors had reinserted Ford into their starting lineup because his ego had trouble coming off the bench. Now with Ford gone, the starting gig is all Calderon’s. Imagine what the guy will do with 5+ minutes a game next year. I think he’ll easily average over 10 assists a game and be the fifth best PG in the league behind Paul, Nash, Arenas, and Billups.

Winners

Jermaine O’Neal: It’s difficult to see how a trade can improve someone’s health, but as John Hollinger reports, “he’s reportedly spending his summer in Las Vegas, working out with noted trainer Joe Abunassar.”

I have no idea who that is or what that means. Regardless, the move will probably help O’Neal’s motivation; to say he was stagnating in Indiana for the past few years is an understatement. O’Neal will slide into the center spot for the Raps, replacing the 7-foot granite stone named Rasho Nesterovic. O’Neal should see the ball enough to maintain his 19-20ish PPG and he’ll bounce back to pre 07/08 rebounding level of 9 a game. Kelly Dwyer writes:

Even at 60 games a year, O’Neal is a needed defender and finisher on the break or in Toronto’s preferred slow-down set. He can run a screen and roll and the two bookends of Jermaine and Chris Bosh will be a tough cover on either end.

As Dwyer hints at, I believe O’Neal’s appearance will also help…

Chris Bosh: Normally, when a team trades for a very good player, the teams other good players don’t stand to benefit from it stats-wise. And I don’t believe that Bosh will. With O’Neal in the frontcourt, Bosh could see his rebounding numbers slide down even further than they were last year. However, I happen to agree with Hollinger’s assessment:

It also eases the wear and tear on Chris Bosh, who has suffered from having to play in the middle for much the past two seasons. Now Bosh is free to play where he belongs, at his natural power forward spot. And Andrea Bargnani is free to go back where he belongs: the bench.

I love the major Bargnani slam. Now, Bosh’s stats aren’t going to benefit significantly from O’Neal’s appearance (slightly more efficient offensive negates less defense from Bosh?), but hopefully the wear and tear and his ability to stay on the court will. Of course, he’s also playing in the Olympics this summer, so maybe all bets should be off.

TJ Ford: Ford vs. Calderon was a fight that TJ was eventually going to lose. With the trade, Ford moves to a team that is in desperate need of a PG (unless you think Jamaal Tinsley) is the answer. There are still a lot of questions here, like Ford’s health, what will the Pacers do with Tinsley (a trade, if they find any takers) and what they are going to do with their 11th and 17th picks (rumors say they are still interested in point guard D.J. Augustin). But for now, Ford will get a chance to run the show in Indiana instead of dueling it out with Calderon in Toronto.

Possible Winners

Troy Murphy? Nah, forget it.

Losers

Jamaal Tinsley: Tinsley is a worthless piece of shit nauseating frustrating fantasy player who has skills (8.4 assists) if you’re cool with getting 40 games out of him. The Pacers are looking to shoot trade the guy, provided they can find an idiot a GM who actually wants him. Trade or no trade, the Tinsley era is over in Indiana.

Big Loser

Andrea Bargnani: For the reasons mentioned above. He’ll struggle to even play 20 minutes a game next season.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski, LeBron now has a supporting cast. Yeah! What? Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Z, and Delonte West suddenly count as a “supporting cast”? I’m sorry, what?

If you’re still reading this instead of picking up Joakim Noah, do that now. Someone in the GMTR Readers’ League actually drafted Joakim. Wow. I was writing him an email to congratulate him until I realized he’d drafted Eddy Curry with the pick right before that one. In an interesting coinkydink, he also has Drew Gooden and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. He is still the Illest Gauskas.

UPDATE: Also, check to see if Boobie (aka Daniel) Gibson is available. Probably want to pick him up too, since there’s no one else to play PG in the land of Cleve. In my haste to post, I didn’t realize that the Boobster had a HIGH ankle sprain. Aka not good. So… follow along below…

Cavs

Big Z probably needs some rest. Ben Wallace will give him that. I would expect Ilguaskas’ numbers to dip slightly. Wallace’s numbers can’t really get any lower… so good luck with that.

Joe Smith and Drew Gooden are pretty much the exact same player at this point. Seriously. Look at their stats. It’s sort of crazy. So, on the Cavs side, Smith will take over Gooden’s role, and probably have the same value. On the Bulls side, Gooden will fill in for Smith (arguably the Bulls best player at this point), and also keep his value. At least until Deng and Gordon start playing real minutes.

UPDATE: I already told you to pick up Daniel Gibson. What else is there really? With Gibson out, I guess Delonte West will be the PG in Cleveland… and that leaves Wally at SG. Really, this helps LeBron how? And do you really want to pick up Wally Szczerbiak or Delonte West? Maybe and maybier. If you need to pick one, go with Wally, at least he can do something. He’ll get you points and threes from the SF position (which is awesome if you’re rollin with a Mid Ball team). Delonte seems to just squander whatever court time he gets.

UPDATED:
PG: Delonte West, Daniel Gibson (INJ), Eric Snow, Damon Jones
SG: Wally Szczerbiak, Devin Brown
SF: LeBron James
PF: Joe Smith, Anderson Varejao (starter?)
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace

Bulls

Pick up Joakim Noah. Did I mention that?

Unfortunately, if Larry Hughes actually plays well, this could mean the end of the Thabo Era. With Deng and Gordon both back, the addition of Larry Hughes means that pretty much every spot from PG to PF has at least 2 players looking for PT. Joakim and Aaron Gray will evidently be holding down the Center spot, but I think they can split the PT pretty well (aka Joakim will get most of it, Gray will get the rest).

Here’s the Bulls:
PG: Hinirch, Duhon (we’re back to normal here)
SG: Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha, Larry Hughes
SF: Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Andres Nocioni
PF: Drew Gooden, Tyrus Thomas, Andres Nocioni
C: Joakim Noah, Drew Gooden

Seattle

They made another deal, so let’s look at the new dept chart…

PG: Earl Watson, Luke Ridnour
SG: Kevin Durant, Brent Barry, Ira Newble
SF: Jeff Green, Damien Wilkins, Adrian Griffin
PF: Chris Wilcox, Nick Collison (soon), Donyell Marshall
C: Johan Petro, Francisco Elson

If you have any of the starters or Nick Collison, you’re good to go. If not, um, yeah, why? I don’t see Newble nor Griffin nor Marshall finding themselves all of sudden in Seattle.

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In other news, Yahoo has revamped their sports pages again to make them EVEN EASIER to navigate. It’s somewhat ridiculous. No wonder Microsoft wants to buy them. They have actual usability people on their teams.

It’s a god damn arms race in the Western Conference all right, and I’m going to sing it out loud. It started with Pau Gasol going to the Lakers for Kwame “Dust Through a Fan” Brown, Javaris Critenton, and the lesser Gasol; then picked up steam when Shaq filled up his car with $20,000 worth of gas and drove to Phoenix to replace Shawn “I Immediately Regret This Decision” Marion; and really came to a head when the Kidd to Dallas trade finally got the Keith Van Horn Mid-Ball stamp of approval (I’ve seen him called semi-retired in a couple of articles, kind of like how I’m being semi-productive at work right now).

The funniest thing about all these trades, besides Keith Van Horn getting 4 meellion dollars for answering his phone and pretending to come out of retirement, was how little impact they’ve had on the world of fantasy. Nels has been logging some serious overtime breaking down these trades, including Gasol to the Lakers, going link style for the Shaq trade, and the first edition of the Kidd trade. Don’t get me wrong, these trades certainly had some minor winners (Boris Diaw, Shawn Marion, Devin Harris and the entire Grizzles team come to mind) and minor losers (Marcus Williams, Bynum, and Udonis Haslem if he ever comes back), but for most of the guys actually involved in the trades, the biggest change is going to be in their jerseys (as Nels so sweetly demonstrated with Jason Kidd).

That being said, Dallas and New Jersey finally finished reworking their deal that sends Kidd and Malik Allen to Dallas for Devin Harris, Trenton Hassell, Maurice Ager, DeSagana Diop, two first-round picks, cash considerations, and the man, the myth, the legend, the Mid-Ball god, Keith Van Horn. Fantasy wise, everything pretty much stays the same as in the previous incarnation of the trade. Kidd will be about as good as he was on the Nets and he’ll give a slight bump in value to the rest of the Mavs through some sort of ‘floor general’ osmosis. Some people are calling for Erick Dampier’s name now that Diop is gone, but that idea is on par with hanging weights from your penis in the hope of making it longer: after enough Schlitz Gay, the idea almost sounds feasible.

For the Nets, it’s all about Devin Harris and some draft picks. Harris will keep his value as the third leg in the Nets new big three, if you can even call them that anymore. How about calling them Scarecrow, the Tin man, and the Lion? I know who can play the Tin man.

And I’d be remiss not to mention the anti-arms race trade: The Kings sending Mike Bibby to the Hawks for Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Shelden Williams, and Lorenzen Wright, or as Tom Ziller called it, a player named ‘Cap Space’.

Bibby stood to benefit fantasy-wise from the trade, but in his first game with the Hawks he already injured his ankle. I’m not sure how serious his injury is, just call it another black mark in what can be called a lost season for Bibby.

As for the Kings? Well, they get cap space. They also take a shot at up-until-now-Atlanta-bust Shelden Williams. In Williams favor is the fact that the Kings have been playing Mikki Moore - he of 8 points and 6 rebounds per game - at power forward all season. If Williams is ever going to win a starting job, Mikki Moore is the guy to go against. If you’re desperate for a big man (and I mean on your fantasy team) it could be worth your while to keep an eye on the Williams situation.

But the most exciting news coming out of the Kings trade is that Bibby’s departure opens up a starting job for Beno Udrih. Beno! Man, I love this guy already for reasons I can’t explain (ok, it’s primarily his name). According to NBA Roto – Fantasy Basketball, Beno has averaged 14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists in his starts this season, which in a quick scan of the player rater, puts him on par this season with… Mike Bibby (13.5/3.7/5.0). Oh, sweet irony that’s funny. Looks like the Kings aren’t going to miss Bibby that much after all.

The Exodus from The East continues… CBS Sportsline has a recap of the trade that is sending Kidd to the Mavs for Devin Harris. They also have some fantasy analysis, from which I plan to borrow liberally…

Don’t expect Kidd’s Fantasy value to change significantly in Dallas. He is still worth starting as a No. 1 guard, and his points and rebounds should remain the same. There is a chance his assist total could decline because of Dallas’ offense — Harris was the team’s leader in assists at 5.3 per game — but adding Kidd will likely alter what the Mavericks do, so have no fear.

You can also expect Nowitzki, Howard and Terry to improve playing alongside Kidd, and Erick Dampier will probably see more minutes with Diop gone.

Yes, Kidd will still be good as your PG. Passing to Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry is at least as good as passing to Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson. Probably better. The rebounds might be harder to come by though, since Erick Dampier, Dirk, and Howard actually like to rebound. The 11 points should stay the same since Devin Harris was averaging 14 before his injury. It’s possible that Kidd could pick up those extra 3 points, but I would rate it as not likely, since Dirk, Howard, and JET are all high volume scorers on the team, and Kidd will probably be focused on running the offense.

With Malik Allen coming over to replace Diop, I don’t really agree with CBS’ assessment that Dampier will get more minutes. Allen was averaging 15 in NJ, while Diop had 17 in Dallas. If Dampier does get those extra 2 minutes, it’s not going to dramatically change his fantasy value.

For Dallas, nothing is really going to change. Dirk and JET are down in FG% this season, so maybe Kidd will be able to help them get back those 3 percentage points. No reason to try to trade for them now, though, and I don’t see any potential Free Agent Mavericks (maverick Mavericks?) gaining enough value to be worth picking up.

In New Jersey, Harris will have a lot to live up to as the Nets start rebuilding. He isn’t going to start averaging a triple-double, but he is capable of being a quality point guard.

Harris, who has missed the past eight games with an ankle injury, is averaging a career-high 14.4 points. He should do well paired with Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, and consider Harris a No. 3 Fantasy guard going forward.

Don’t worry about Carter or Jefferson losing Fantasy value. They will continue to score, and their assist total could also rise.

The rest of the players involved in the trade have minimal Fantasy value. Allen will be a bench player in Dallas, as will George and Ager in New Jersey. Diop also joins a crowded frontcourt with the Nets with Josh Boone, Sean Williams, Nenad Krstic and Stromile Swift.

Hopefully Harris will be back from his injury soon (he’s on my GMTR Readers League team), because I’m predicting an increase in value for him on the Nets. Again, though, I wouldn’t go trading for him because he is still injured, and it could be that Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson decide to hog the ball for the Nets. But Harris is a quality player, and Nenad Krstic and Josh Boone are not as good offensively as Dirk Nowitzki, which will allow Harris the opportunity to up his already-career-high scoring.

CBS is right that Diop is headed into a crowded frontcourt, and I’d say Boone, Williams, and Krstic are all better players, which means if you’ve got Diop, it’s probably time to drop. You can wait a couple games, but if he’s not getting the minutes, they’re not going to come.

A lot of Carter and Jefferson’s value will depend on how well Harris can run the backcourt. He’s more of a scoring PG with his career high in assists coming this year at only 5.3 per game. It will be interesting to see if he is a good enough passer to up that number; even if he does, there’s no way he’s going to reach Jason Kidd levels, though. With the 5 rebound drop going from Kidd to Harris, there is some room for Jefferson, Krstic, and Boone to up their totals a bit. Boone is ranked 182 by Yahoo over the past month, but jumps to 54 if you look at only the last week. He’s probably been picked up if your league is competitive, but in shallower leagues, he might still be available.

Krstic’s minutes are supposed to go up after the All-Star break (according to Nets coach Lawrence Frank via Stats.com), so if he’s available, now might be a good time to take a flier on him. He’s been playing only 15-17 minutes a game since returning from injury, and has been fairly productive in that time. He did only play 26 games last season, though, so the injury bug looks like it might be a recurring character in The Story of Nenad.

If New Jersey can hang on in the playoff race (they’re currently in 7th) all of the Nets should be good because they’ll be playing hard to stay in the fight. If the loss of Kidd sends them down as a team, then I can easily see Vince Carter getting “injured” later in the season.

And finally, since people always like to put players in their new uniforms via Photoshop, I did that for ya:

Who ever thought the Big Diesel would be trading for the gas-sipping Japanese import?

Yeah, worst intro line ever. But guess what? It gets worse. Why? Because I’m just throwing a whole bunch of links out here. Honestly, I was working on another sort-of-almost-basketball-and-writing-related project last night and didn’t open my feed reader until after writing this morning’s post. And since Pau Gasol’s LA premiere was still the Number One headline on NBA.com, I didn’t even know until the whole Shaq Matrix trade until, well, a little while ago.

So here we go:

Fantasy Sports Experience

Fantasy Basketblog

FanHouse

Hoops Fantasy, who appear to have deleted their CSS file…

CBS Sportsline

Gamespot, oh wait…

The Association probably has my favorite. No fantasy implications, but full of awesomeness. That counts for a lot on my scorecard.

According to SLAM Online and BlogABull, and soon to be a few thousand million other sources:

The Grizz have traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton and two future first-round draft picks.

Talk about sell low. Jeez. Is that really all it took to get Gasol? The commentors over at Blog-A-Bull (hardest blog name to type) are having a cow (pun intended) about this trade. I’m with them. I like the Red Bull (Andres Nocioni) and his crazy high voice, but I would give him up along with 2 draft picks in a second.

Anyway, this is a fantasy blog, and the Bulls are in the crapper right now anyway.

Impact on the Lakers

Kobe’s jump to the number 2 spot on NBA.com’s ratings will probably be short lived. Gasol will immediately take some of the scoring load off of Kobe, and he’ll go back to playing more like he did before Andrew Bynum got hurt. Which is to say, probably still Top 10, but not #2.

Speaking of Bynum, his fantasy value takes a huge hit. But since he’s out till probably mid-March, it may not matter all that much. Gasol could be injured himself by then, so if you’re waiting with Bynum on your bench, don’t go drop him right now for any old chump off the wire.

I can see both Kobe and Derek Fisher getting more open looks from deep with Gasol in there now. So, if you need a few more threes, D-Fish is probably not a bad guy to pick up. Luke Walton is also an outside thread, but probably topped out last season with his 0.8 threes/game. Lamar Odom might be able to pick his outside shot up off the bench now, and get it back closer to the 1 three/game he had last season.

Hopefully (for me) Gasol will be able to bring his game back to its Top 20 style form. One (that one being me) would think with the best scorer in the league on his team, it would actually be pretty easy to just sit under the basket and get half of his 20 ppg off the boards. The other half of that 20 would come when he decides to score instead of passing to one of the guys mentioned above for a three point attempt.

And finally, since Kwame Brown is gone, I’m afraid that Ronny Turiaf will continue to be the only backup PF and C that the Lakers have.

Impact on the Grizzlies

Free Darko?

Seriously, the Grizz are throwing in the Rebuild flag with this trade. I don’t think Kwame’s 5.7 and 5.7 is going to win him any more playing time in Memphis than it did in LA. Maybe there won’t be so many people booing him?

Hopefully (for my wife) Darko is let loose to block 5 shots a game while scoring and rebounding in the double digits. I know it’s possible.

Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Juan Carlos Navarro, and pretty much anyone else who actually plays in games for the Grizzlies gets a boost in value with this trade. Rudy Gay will probably benefit the most since he’s now THE MAN in Memphis.

I mean, I seriously can’t imagine that Memphis is going to give Kwame Brown 30+ minutes a game. This trade was obviously for the picks, and their just taking one in the pooper and hoping they can get someone of Gasol’s value out of the draft.