Give Me The Rock » Atlanta Hawks

Day 80 of 124: Fueled By Overtime

Nels — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 13:04:35 +0000

Anything that endures over time sacrifices its ability to make an impression. – Robert Musil, Author

If you’re looking for the Bucks-Warriors Trade, that’s here. Meanwhile… games were played… Some of them even went into overtime…

Line of the Night: Josh Smith (3.35) captured his first Line of the Night thanks to an overtime game in Denver. Smith had 33 points (5-5 from the line), 13 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 blocks, but couldn’t pull out the win.

(The Associated Press)

Honorable Mentions: Speaking of not pulling out the win: Dwyane Wade (2.58) and Co. couldn’t get it done in overtime against the Magic despite Wade’s 28 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Too bad cause when Dwight Howard shoots 6-18 from the line, you really need to be able to Capitalize (see what I did there?).

I really thought Andrew Bynum (2.44) was going to have the LotN with the Lakers going to double-OT to beat the Grizzlies. Bynum had 37 points (15-18 from the field, 7-8 from the line) with 16 rebounds, but only 1 steal and 1 block to his 4 turnovers.

Ty Lawson (2.33) played 35 minutes against Jeff Teague, who must have been a little fa-teagued, going only 2-8 from the floor (he was not the biggest loser, though). Lawson, on the other hand, had 21 points (4 threes, 8-11 from the field), 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals in his best game since the very first game of the year.

Kevin Durant (2.13) and the Thunder could not take advantage of a Rockets team that was without Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin. While Durant had 28 points (4 threes), 12 rebounds, and 4 assists, the rest of the Thunder played a little beneath themselves allowing Houston the 1 point win. It wasn’t all Goran Dragic, though, despite what we might have led your to believe. More on that in a sec… but first…

I have to throw in Kobe Bryant (1.62) who added another 34 points (11-12 from the line) to his career total (still 2300 points behind Wilt Chamberlin). Bryant also had 9 rebounds and 5 assists (remember, this was double overtime).

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Courtney Lee (2.27) played 40 minutes filling in for the injured Kevin Martin. Martin said he’s been playing through the shoulder injury until it got aggravated on Sunday. Lee stepped up with 21 points (4 threes, 8-12 from the field) and 3 steals (7% owned). Looks like it’s probably the good old day-to-day for Kevin Martin, but it’s definitely worth picking up Lee in daily leagues since both Martin and Kyle Lowry are out. If Martin doesn’t play in the Rockets next game, I’d give Lee the green light in weekly leagues too.

Pick Up Lines: Speaking of Rockets stepping up: The Chandler Parsons Project (1.95) is back! While he’s only #124 on the season, Parsons is up to 62 on the Player Rater over the last two weeks. Last night he went for 21 points (3 threes), 7 rebounds, and 6 assists (13% owned). Also keep in mind that despite the close score, this was not one of the three overtime games last night.

Zach Randolph owners can continue to be upset by lines from Marreese Speights (1.87) that look like: 25 points (12-20 from the field), 7 rebounds, 5 assists (19% owned), but don’t kid yourself: when was the last time Zach Randolph passed the ball, let alone get 5 assists? Kidding aside, this is probably Speights’s last run at fantasy value, so don’t bother picking him up if you haven’t been riding his roller coaster of fantasy love already.

Brandon Rush (1.59) came off the bench for the Monta-Ellis-Stephen-Curry-less Warriors to score 17 points (5 threes, 6-10 from the field) with 8 rebounds (17% owned). Filling in for the injured Curry was Nate Robinson (1.38) who had 17 points (7-11 from the field) and 2 steals (7% owned). I wouldn’t count on Rush (or starting SG Klay Thompson) to continue that kind of output once Stephen Jackson comes in to basically do what Dorell Wright was supposed to have been doing all season. Klay Thompson (0.30) has been playing well, though, and even with Jackson stepping in at Power Forward, will probably continue to do pretty well now that he’s the starting SG for the Warriors. He was only 6-19 in his first start, and probably won’t get that many shots ever again, but he also had 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 1 blocked shot in 42 minutes for the Warriors. They won by 26 points, but the blowout wasn’t really on until the 4th quarter, so it does kind of seem like he might be on track for a big bump in minutes.

Kirk Hinrich (1.56) is up to 29 minutes per game over his last 5 after last night’s 41 minutes (fueled by overtime), 22 points (3 threes, 7-8 from the field), and 4 assists (4% owned). If he gets one more game with 30+ minutes, I’ll call him a must add in almost all leagues.

Rodrigue Beaubois (1.49) edged out Dirk’s (1.29) 27 points (2 threes, 10-14 from the field, 5-6 from the line) with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals (16% owned). Roddy is still a bit up-and-down for me, but he is definitely a positive fantasy asset.

Finally, time to pick up Jerryd Bayless (1.31) again. No, I’m not kidding. Bayless has has three straight games now with numbers that I would like to see on my fantasy team, including last night’s 20 points, 4 threes, 7 assist, and 4 rebounds. I will caution, though, only drop someone if you are okay with seeing Bayless drop back to 11 points and 3 assists immediately after seeing this recommendation. He’s that kind of guy, but he’s also played 30+ minutes for the Raptors before… and he did this with Bargnani back in the lineup.

Biggest Loser: It’s not his first time in this spot… and it might not be his last… Please welcome: Raymond Felton (-0.96) and his 5 points (2-8 from the field), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 turnovers to The Biggest Loser! Thanks for coming, Raymond. I’m sure we’ll see you next time on Line of the Night, cause that’s just the way you play.

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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What Does Zaza Pachulia Bring to the Table?

Patrick — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 11:46:01 +0000

Yesterday’s big injury news came with reports that Al Horford was expected to miss the next three-to-four months with a torn pectoral muscle in his left shoulder. It was an injury that happened in the first quarter of Wednesday game against the Pacers.

It’s a huge blow to Horford’s fantasy owners. Even a best case scenario puts him back on the court at the very end of the regular season, so unless you’re in a keeper league, Horford can be dropped. Hawks’ backup center Zaza Pachulia now steps into the starting rotation for the Hawks. Zaza hasn’t seen starter’s minutes on a consistent basis since George W. Bush was in the White House, so what can we realistically expect from him this season?

Well, we currently have three pieces of evidence. Pachulia has now played two games of 30+ minutes at center for the Hawks (his first start and the game Horford got hurt in). He followed up an 11 point, 7 rebound game in the first game with a double-double last night. Against the Bobcats, he finished with 10 points and 10 boards. He also had 4 assists and a block. Note, however, that the game was against the Bobcats.

Two games is a small sample size. And unfortunately, going back two years I found a total of only 6 games in which Zaza started and played at least 20 minutes (Al Horford has been a healthy guy historically). In those 6 games, Pachulia averaged 7.8 points, 7.7 and 0.3 blocks a game.

So without much data to go with, I’ll turn to the GMTR projection system, which is the thing we used to generate our 2011-12 stat projections before the start of the season. The system uses a combination of player comps, past performance, and estimated minutes to forecast future performance. Projecting out Pachulia at 30 minutes a game for 2011-12, we come up with:

Pts: 7.8
Reb: 7.6
Ast: 1.5
Stl: 0.7
Blk: 0.6
FG%: 47%
FT%: 75%

So – interestingly enough – our projections almost exactly lineup with what he’s done as a starter the past couple of seasons. Throw that line into a basic fantasy basketball rating system and Pachulia comes out around 150-160 on the list thanks mostly to his above average rebounding. That means Pachulia is barely worth owning in a normal 12-team league as a bench player, but should be owned in all 14+ team leagues. Think of him like a very poor man’s version of Anderson Varejao.

There is the possibility that the Hawks try and find a new center to replace Pachulia in the starting lineup or at least split time with him. But the names in free agency are not pretty – Joel Pryzbilla and Erick Dampier are names being thrown out – so consider Pachulia the Hawks’ starter for the immediate future even though coach Larry Drew has yet to commit to him long term.

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Day 14 of 124: Where Josh Smith Has a Game

Patrick — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 12:33:52 +0000

Line of the Night: Josh Smith (3.93 WARP) dominated Carlos Boozer the Bulls on his way to 25 points (on 11-17 shooting), with 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, and 6 blocks. That stat stuffing line not only dominated the fantasy competition last night, but I believe we officially have a new best fantasy line of the year. Smith’s line was helped by the fact that he also hit a three, was 2-2 from the line and only had 1 turnover. So there wasn’t anything that he didn’t do well against the Bulls. It’s was a +9 category contribution for Smith.

And after a slow start to the season, Smith is now averaging 14.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks over the Hawks last 4 games. In my professional opinion… he’s good to go.

Honorable Mentions: Jeff Teague (2.00) scored 12 points, adding 8 assists and 5 steals in the game. He’s been every bit as good as we projected going into the year and kudos if you drafted him as a sleeper this season. Al Horford (1.74) also chipped in 14 points (on 7-8 shooting), with 7 rebounds, and a couple blocks in 24 minutes. Overall, 4 of the top 10 fantasy performance’s last night came from Hawks. And here we thought the Bulls were supposed to have the league’s best defense.

I don’t want to give away the ending of this post, but the Bulls were brutal in this game from a fantasy perspective, which becomes obvious when Kyle Korver (1.05) is your best performer. Korver scored 13 points for the Bulls, adding 3 threes and 5 assists in 35 minutes.

***

Danilo Gallinari (2.27) scored a career high 31 points on 10-16 shooting, adding 5 rebounds and 3 threes as the Nuggets lost a wild 121-117 game to the Spurs. Ty Lawson (1.28) added a 20 and 10 in the game. The Spurs were lead by the 24 year old Danny Green (2.74), who scored a career high 24 points on 9-13 shooting, with 7 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks. More on Green below. Richard Jefferson (1.58) – now 66% owned in Yahoo leagues – scored 19 points and was 5-8 from three in the game.

With Dwyane Wade sitting out his third straight game with a bruised left foot, LeBron James (1.83) came out of the gates like a bull in Pamplona , scoring 22 points in the first quarter, eventually finishing with 32 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists in 37 minutes. Everyone’s new favorite point guard, Mario Chalmers (0.71) followed up his combo line of the night with 7 points, 7 assists and 2 steals, which was pretty damn good considering he only got 18 minutes of run in the game. For comparison, Norris Cole (0.47) got 31 minutes off the bench but put up a similar 9 points, 6 assists and 3 steals. Chalmers/Cole is really the definition of a time share where long-term it’s going to be tough for either guy to win.

Wade owners have to be a little bit worried as the day-to-day injury creep sets in. Wade was originally expected to play in the game against the Nets, but was ruled out shortly before game time. He did participate in the team’s shoot around on Saturday morning, so there is a good chance he returns for the Heat’s next game on Wednesday for those of you who have to make the call today in weekly changes leagues.

In his second game back for the Nets, Kris Humphries (1.13) tied his career high with 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in nearly 40 minutes on the court.

But where is Lamar?

Roy Hibbert (1.74) led the Pacers past the Bobcats by a score of 99-77 (yet another blowout on the season) with 20 points on 10-16 shooting, adding 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. Charlotte’s best line came from D.J. Augustin (0.97), who finished with 20 points and 7 boards. Tyrus Thomas (-0.45) got his first start at small forward (with Diaw at PF and DeSagana Diop at C) and scored 10 points with 7 boards in 32 minutes. Despite two mediocre performances since returning from injury, Thomas makes a decent pickup if you’re looking for a rebounds/blocks guy simply because he’s in line for big minutes.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: There was a lot of talk about Gary Neal and James Anderson after the Manu injury, but not so much about the third year Danny Green (2.74), who played all of 8 games last season. Green came off the bench for what I can only assume is a career high 33 minutes and put up the 24 points mentioned above. While he’s not likely to have a performance THIS good anytime soon, he has become the first player off the Spurs bench thanks to the Manu injury and is worth a look in most leagues as a guy who can hit the three and pick up some defensive stats for your team.

Pick Up Lines: Goran Dragic (1.93) got his second straight start for the injured Kyle Lowry and had another great game with 20 points and 8 assists. Dragic has shown in the past he can be a double-double machine when starting. Lowry is day-today however, and it sounds like he should be back for the Rockets’ next game on Wednesday, so leave Dragic on waivers for now.

Vladimir Radmanovic (1.76) is currently available in 100% of leagues! With the Hawks dominating their game against the Bulls and Tracy McGrady hurting, Radmanovic got some extra run (nearly 28 minutes) and scored 17 points by going 5-5 from three. Your fantasy team may need a lot of things, but the one thing I can say with certainty is that it doesn’t need more Vlad Rad.

Al-Farouq Aminu (1.60) got his third straight start in place of the injured Trevor Ariza and had his first good game over that span – scoring 15 points, with 12 rebounds and 4 steals in a huge 44 minutes of run. With Ariza expected back soon, Aminu is another guy to leave on waivers for now.

With Rodney Stuckey also out with a sore groin, Brandon Knight (1.54) got the start against the Knicks and scored 19 points, hitting 5 threes and grabbing 6 rebounds and 3 steals. Knight has been super streaky so far this season and is only worth playing in normal sized leagues while Stuckey is out.

Quick Hits: Drew Gooden (1.03) had an 18 and 13 against the Clippers and remains a must start while Bogut is out. Brandon Rush (1.29) scored 14 points and hit 4 threes in 28 minutes off the bench against the Jazz. He’s one of those guys who is constantly going to be on and off the wire this season. Nate Robinson (0.53) also got 27 minutes off the bench for Golden State, scoring 11 points and adding 5 assists. With Stephen Curry out at least the next week with a sprained ankle, Robinson is worth a look if you need a scorer.

Biggest Loser: So many choices. There is the entire Raptors team, who scored 62 points against the Sixers. It could probably also go to entire Bulls starting rotation. But in terms of individual player performance, Joakim Noah (-1.04) was the worst of the lot, scoring 1 point and adding 4 rebounds in 17 minutes for Chicago. Derrick Rose (0.42) only scored 8 points and had 5 turnovers to his 6 assists, while Luol Deng (-0.51) scored 8 points on 4-13 shooting.

Toney Douglas (-0.99) played a total of 6 minutes in the Knicks’ latest game and finished with 0 points and 1 rebound. He’s lost his starting job to Iman Shumpert and is droppable in all leagues as the Iman era has begun early in New York.

And Boris Diaw (-0.86) has cooled off after his hot start to the season, scoring 2 points on 1-8 shooting, with 2 rebounds and 2 assists before fouling out against the Pacers. A quick check of his game log indicates that those wild Diaw game-to game swings that we all love are back in full effect – his scoring over the last 4 games – 2 points, 10, 27, 0.

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Fantasy Basketball Team Preview: Atlanta Hawks

Nels — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 21:31:44 +0000

I’m not a big fan of the Hawks, but mostly because they’re almost certain to be Eastern Conference playoff rivals for the Bulls this year and probably for some time to come. So, while it may appear that I don’t have their best interest in mind, I still think they should amnesty the hell out of Joe Johnson. Al Horford and Josh Smith both ended last season in the Top 25 on the Player Rater, so I’m okay with giving them their money, but we all knew that Johnson was not going to earn out on what the Hawks gave him.

Depth Chart
Point Guard: Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich
Shooting Guard: Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson
Small Forward: Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Pape Sy
Power Forward: Josh Smith, Al Horford, Magnum Rolle
Center: Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Keith Benson

Guards

Everyone knows Jeff Teague needs to take over the PG position for Kirk Hinrich. Too bad for the Hawks, the only thing keeping Hinrich on the bench instead of playing Shooting Guard is his injured shoulder. Because of the contracts the Hawks have on the books for Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams, and Hinrich himself, they’re up to their beaks in salary, and there’s not much money left for the Hawks to spend on someone to replace Hinrich, let alone serve as any sort of upgrade. Perhaps that’s a little harsh for someone who was once a Top 50 fantasy player, but Hinrich’s best days are clearly behind him. They still need to sign a couple more guys to fill out the roster, but with what they have they’re not going to be any better than what you see above there on the Depth Chart. Hinrich is good enough for now, but good enough to win? Probably not. That said, do we care? No. We’re talking fantasy basketball here.

Back to Teague: he only played 13 minutes per game last season, but he did play 71 games, and that’s obviously enough to see him through this year’s shortened season. In the playoffs last year though, when he exploded against the Bulls, he played almost 40 minutes a game, shooting 51% from the field for close to 20 points to go with 4 assists and almost a steal a game. With Hinrich out until January, I would fully expect Teague to put up close to 20 with 4-5 assists and a steal.

Joe Johnson will probably start the season at SG until Hinrich gets back. Without much else in the way of Guards for a while, he’ll probably be playing 35-40 minutes per game and his numbers should match at least what he was doing last year. His points might be down again from the 18 he has last year (which was down from the 21 he’d been putting up the 3 years prior) due to Teague’s increased role on the team.

Forwards

With Johnson starting at Guard, Marvin Williams will once again have the keys to the starting role at Small Forward. That means he’ll be just good enough to make you want to draft him again this year (you know you think about it every year).

Then there’s Josh Smith at the other Forward position. Anyone think he’s going to stop doing what he’s been doing his whole career? Nope. The only thing that’s going to slow him down is if the CBA included a provision for adjustable basketball hoops. 15 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1+ steals, 1.5-2 blocks. That’s Top 25 right there. If he can get his FG% back to 50 and maintain his FT% (or maybe the longer off-season gave him an opportunity to work on his free throws shooting), he might end up as a first round caliber player. There’s a lot of good first round choices ahead of him this year, though, so make a realistic pick when it comes to Smith. While I’m generally risk averse, even if I wasn’t I wouldn’t count on Josh Smith’s upside potential over the solid potential of any first rounders this year.

Centers

Last year, I thought Horford was going to put up 20 and 10. Given what he actually put up, I’d say we’re looking at another 15 and 9 season this time around. Close to 1 steal and maybe more than 1 block. Over 50% from the field and close to 80% from the line.

Fantasy Draft Recommendations (Updated 12/3)

Al Horford – 2nd Round

Josh Smith – 3rd Round

Joe Johnson – 5th Round

Jeff Teague – I would put him as high as the 8th round. Right now, he’s going in the 13th round according to Yahoo’s ADP chart. I’m not sure whether than means everyone out there knows more or less than I do about the Hawks, but if you can snag him in the last round, you’ll have the steal of the draft.

Marvin Williams – Draftable in larger than standard size leagues

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Day 141 of 170: Where I Don’t Care What Happened, Because The Bulls Are In Second

Nels — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 13:34:26 +0000

I probably shouldn’t rub it too hard in Patrick’s face, but since the Celtics have been to Finals 3 times in the past 3 years, he can’t be feeling too bad that my Bulls have overtaken the Green Goblins at the top of the Eastern Conference. We we we so excited! Sure, Derrick Rose (1.06) was only the 9th best fantasy line of the night with 23 points (5-5 from the line), 7 assists, and 2 steals, but there were 7 other teams with players vying for momentary fantasy glory (which I’m sure was the foremost thing on all their minds). The Bulls are hotter than Rebecca Black right now. (If you haven’t seen that video before, please have a couple glasses of irony and at least one shot of snark before you begin)

“We we we so exited! We so excited!”

Line of the Night: Joe Johnson (2.60) led the Hawks against the Bucks with 36 points (6 threes, 13-19 from the field, 4-4 from the line) and 5 rebounds.

Honorable Mentions: The Hawks were flying strong (so punny!) last night. They already had the LotN, and Josh Smith (1.72) follows that up with 17 points (8-12 from the field), 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks. Definitely part of the reason they won by 25 points. Dirk Nowitzki (1.67) put up 28 points (9-14 from the field, 9-9 from the line) with 11 rebounds in a close one for the Mavs. Danny Granger (1.65) helped Indiana to a 2 point win with 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks making the Knicks look much threatening. Still, I’d rather get Indiana or Charlotte in the first round than NYC. Wesley Matthews (1.48) continued his fine fantasy play this season with 18 points (4 threes, 5-7 from the field, 4-4 from the line). Andrew Bogut (1.18) has his own double-double streak going now with 21 points, and 13 rebounds. Any guesses on whether the streak will reach two games? John Wall (1.14) reminded us that he can still play ball even if he’s on a crappy team with 17 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 steals. And because of his 5-14 shooting, JaVale McGee (1.12) could only get to #8 on the night despite a triple-double consisting of 11 points, 12 rebounds, and 12 BLOCKS. Yes, you read that right. Dude blocked 12 shots. I’d hate to be playing him in fantasy right now.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Despite the title of the post, I guess I have to care that Keith Bogans (1.59) had 17 points (5 threes), 5 rebounds, and 2 steals because I felt like Kyle Korver was playing well enough to limit Bogans who has been kind of like most of the girls on Ark Productions roster that aren’t Rebecca Black. Which is to say: not laughably bad (like Becs), but certainly not good.

Go Bulls! Even Keith Bogans!

Pick Up Lines: Toney Douglas (1.37) had 17 points (4 threes), 4 assists, and 2 steals and at 31% owned, he’s probably rostered in about every league where anyone is paying any attention.

Don’t be fooled Rodrigue Beaubois (1.06) and his 16 points (4 threes, 6-8 from the field), and 4 assists. You need consistency right now, and he is not going to give you what you need. Which is consistency.

Kurt Thomas (0.79) is still filling in ably for Carlos Boozer with a pretty nice line of 8 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks (4% owned). With the Bulls playing so well without Boozer, he probably won’t be rushed back to service, which makes Thomas a good pick for daily changes leagues if you need some extra rebounds and blocks.

Shawne Williams (0.67) had 10 points and 6 rebounds. He sits at 8% owned, and has clawed his way up to #74 on the Player Rater for the last month. And with his third good game in a row, I can now say that you would not be unwise to consider picking him up.

Finally, it’s hard not to want someone who is a cross between Michael Jordan and Jamal Crawford (at least in name) to succeed. Am I right? Anyway, Jordan Crawford (0.62) scored 27 points (3 threes) with 4 assists, and if nothing else, he seems like he could be a decent fantasy pick in the vein of “a good player on a bad team” next season.

Biggest Loser: Bucks losing by 25 points? I guess it was Brandon Jennings (-0.93) and his 4 points, 1 rebound, and 2 assists with the 1-8 from the field. You need 12 blocks to make up for that kind of performance B-Jen. Where did the 50 point games go?

Also… Bulls!

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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Day 22 of 170: Betting on Black and Red

Nels — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 14:26:29 +0000

Line of the Night: Josh Smith (2.11 on the player rater) threw a little block party in Indiana last night. Not only did he block 7 shots, but he shot 56% from the field, grabbed 8 rebounds, got 1 steal, and shot a very un-Smitty-like 6-7 from the line. While 7 blocks isn’t going to win the category by itself, it’s a pretty good start only 2 days in.

The Dean’s List: I have to mention my boy Derrick Rose (1.85) even though he was only #4 on the night. He added another 33 points to his season total, going 13-20 from the field, including 4 threes, adding 7 assists and 3 steals.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: So, it would start to seem that picking against Patrick and me might actually be a new fantasy strategy. Drew Gooden (1.99) took advantage of Carlos Delfino being out to show us how wrong we were to say he wasn’t worth a pick up in our podcast (that was a couple weeks ago, though, so he’s probably forgotten about it by now, right?). Technically, Gooden is ineligible due to his 73% shooting which led to 22 points, but he also grabbed 13 rebounds and had 1 block and 1 steal in 33 minutes. If he gets that kind of run while Delfino is out, he’s worth adding, especially in the brutality style leagues with daily changes and no max moves. Or maybe even daily changes with max moves. In weekly leagues, you can add him and see how it goes the rest of the week.

Pickup Lines: As opposed to Gooden (and again flying in the face of Patrick’s consistent Rudy Fernandez recommendation) Wesley Matthews (1.91) may be a good long-term add. He’s definitely a must add in any league where Brandon Roy is injured. I’ll give you that Matthews played 42 minutes last night, so his numbers are a bit inflated, but scale back a bit on his 30 points, 5 threes, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 1 block and that’s still probably the best line you’re going to find out there.

On Monday, Fantasy Basketball Breakdown asked why you haven’t picked up Landry Fields. From the picture, you wouldn’t think he’s anything special, cause, I mean, he’s beating Darko to the hoop. But last night, Landry (1.52) posed the question to fantasy owners with his 21 points, 17 rebounds, and 2 steals.

The Biggest Loser: Well, I’m going to nominate JR Smith (-0.76) who may have lost his job. After sitting through the Nuggets game on the 15th, Smith played just 1 minute last night. He was late for a shootaround the first time, but apparently Panamanian Gary Forbes is playing well enough to get 23 minutes off the bench for the Nuggets in place of Smith. Forbes has only had 2 decent games, and he’s an undrafted rookie, but if he continues to play 20 minutes a game, he’s likely going to keep taking those minutes from Smith. Keep an eye on the situation if you want to be a true hardcore fantasy manager. I’m guessing the 9 rebounds are uncharacteristic since they game against the Knicks, but he does seem to be a decent 3-point shooter.

On Tap: Since there are no undefeated teams, we’ve got the next best thing (or at least, about as close as you can get) with the Mavericks (7-2) in New Orleans (8-1). I was also surprised to see that the Spurs are 8-1. They’re hosting the Bulls, who are on their annual Circus Trip, playing the SEcond GAme of a BAck to BAck (affectionately referred to as a SEGABABA). Perhaps Tony Parker’s confusion over whether or not he’s getting divorced will be enough of a distraction for the Bulls to take #2 of their seven game trip. I think that’s about all anyone is expecting of them anyway.

The Golden Rule: New York at Sacramento should mean good times for the Kings. Which is good cause I need Beno and Francisco to put up some numbers. I haven’t checked Phoenix’s “pace” numbers, but they’re playing Miami, so there’s bound to be some good fantasy lines in there somewhere.

In The Bonus: 5 Most Added | Time to Drop Anthony Randolph?

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Fantasy Basketball Preview: Atlanta Hawks

Patrick — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 18:03:01 +0000

It’s always a good idea to let Kobe rub some of his magic on you before starting contract negotiations

A few sportswriters have written about the disease of more. It’s the concept that team success breeds individual greed. Players simply want what they perceive to be their fair share, whether that is more money, playing time, shots, etc. The result is that a successful team is nearly impossible to keep together over a long period of time, eventually being broken up or falling apart under its own weight.

Relative to their recent history, the Hawks have been successful the past few years. While their playoff runs have been no great shakes, you can see the disease of more starting to creep into the team. First came the crazy Joe Johnson max contract (which you can blame the Hawks more for than JJ). But more troubling is the recent Jamal Crawford I want a contract extension storm that’s brewing. According to Crawford:

“I waited 10 years to get here, helping my team to one of the best home records in the league, snagging home-court advantage and making the playoffs for the first time while helping the team to one of the best records in franchise history. It’s hard to be a part of all that and then feel like you are not a part of the future. But I’m a professional. And I need to make this clear, I want to be here, I want to be an Atlanta Hawk. If I’m not a part of the plan going forward, then that’s a conversation we need to have later.”

Right now Crawford is playing the good son and has showed up to camp fully invested in being on the team. But the NBA season is a long one, and “later” is probably going to come sooner than the Hawks would like.

Here is what the Hawks depth chart currently looks like:

Depth Chart

PG Mike Bibby, Jeff Teague
SG Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Jordan Crawford, Pape Sy
SF Marvin Williams, Maurice Evans, Richard Delk
PF Josh Smith, Josh Powell, Etan Thomas, Evan Brock
C Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Jason Collins, Ricardo Marsh

***

Last season, the Hawks had four players who finished in the top 100 of our 9-cat player rater: Josh Smith at 19, Al Horford at 20, Joe Johnson at 28, and Jamal Crawford at 65. That’s a lot of very, very good.

A disappointing playoff loss led the Hawks to fire their coach Mike Woodson and promote assistant Larry Drew. Drew is looking to change the Hawks offense to feature more movement and cuts and less isolation plays. This could mean more involvement from guys like Marvin Williams, although we’ll have to wait and see exactly how much effect it has on the scoring output of the team.

Are things still looking up for the Hawks? I think so.

Guards

Crazy $120 million contracts aside, Joe Johnson does many things well. He’s a very good offensive player, capable of scoring over 20 points a game. He can pass, rebound, hit the three with above average efficiency. He doesn’t turn the ball over. He soaks up minutes for the team while staying healthy. He’s one of the top 10 greatest Hawks of all time. On the other hand, JJ is a below average defender. He doesn’t block shots and is not overly aggressive on that end of the floor. He doesn’t draw contact on offense and get to the free throw line.

Johnson has the type of game that should be able to survive a loss of athleticism as he hits his 30’s and he definitely has a number of years of very good offensive performance left in him. You know exactly what you’re getting from JJ in a draft and he’s a solid foundation player for a team that needs his scoring.

One guy not near the top 100 fantasy players last year was Mike Bibby, who finished the season ranked at 142 by GMTR. Bibby has had a precipitous Wile E Coyote like fall over the past couple of years, going from 14 points and 6.5 assists a game in 2007-08 to only 9.1 points and 3.9 assists last year. In fact, Mike Bibby’s most similar fantasy player last season was Steve Blake. Bibby’s minutes are way down (only 27 a game) and he will have to fend off the motivated 22-year old Jeff Teague in camp (and Bibby is ok with that). I think it’s safe to say that Bibby is a clear stay away from candidate in fantasy leagues at this point in his career.

Bibby will probably not lose his starting job unless he’s horrifically bad to start the year or Jeff Teague finds “the Dog”. Bibby has that veteran presence that playoff teams like the Hawks love (it’s why Derek Fisher still has a job, right?), while Teague is still working on becoming more aggressive and confident on the court. Teague is definitely a PG to keep an eye on, although he is more likely to break out a year or two down the road, if at all.

Reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford is at camp and is saying mostly sticking to the company line. He could still be traded before the start of the season if the Hawks find the right deal, but for now expect him to return to his 6th man role for the team. Crawford is another very good offensive player who averaged 18 points and 2.1 threes in 31 minutes a game last season. He is the Hawks’ worst defender, but on a team with Josh Smith and Al Horford, its ok to have a guy or two like Crawford who might as well hang out on one side of the court all game.

Forwards

Last year, I got some shit for taking Josh Smith in the third round of a mock draft. This year, Smith is being pegged as a high second round pick. The difference between this year and last is that Smith was able to bounce back in a big way from an injured plagued 2008-09. And during the bounce back, the 24-year old Smith has become a slightly more refined version of his beastly self. He’s still blocking over 2 shots and grabbing over 8 boards a game, but he’s stopped taking threes (never a strong part of his game) and as a result, saw his field goal percentage climb over 50% for the first time in his career. If you’re looking for a guy who can fill up a stat sheet (minus threes) then Smith is as good a beast as there is outside the first round.

One word of warning about Smith: Up to this point in his career, he’s alternated healthy seasons with injury prone ones. If that trend holds true, he could be looking at 60-70 games played this year. That’s if you believe in that kind of voodoo.

Marvin Williams has burned me in more leagues than any other barely-relevant fantasy guy ever. For years, I kept drafting him assuming he was going to improve and every year he kept getting worse. Last year was his worst statistical output since his rookie season with averages of 10.1 points and 5.1 rebounds a game. There is some talk that Larry Drew’s new offense could allow Williams to become more involved again, but it’s time for me to sit this one out.

Center

Al Horford has quietly become one of the best fantasy centers in the league. We have him as our 3rd ranked center going into the year thanks in part to the big step forward he took last season on the offensive end of the court. He bumped up his scoring to 14 ppg last season, while shooting an insane 55% from the floor. Add to that 10 boards and over a block a game and you have a center who may not immediately pop out at you as one of the best, but is someone without a serious weakness to his game.

The Hawks’ plan to play Horford at PF more this season (with Smith at SF) would be a good one if they actually had a decent back-up center. In reality, Zaza Pachulia, Jason Collins, and Etan Thomas isn’t going to cut it and Horford still makes the most sense at the position.

The Bench

Last season, the two Hawks who got the most run off the bench behind Jamal Crawford were Maurice Evans (17 minutes a game) and Pachulia (14 minutes a game). That pretty much says everything you need to know about the Hawks bench behind Crawford for fantasy purposes. If Crawford were to be traded, rookie SG Jordan Crawford could fill in the Crawford shoes off the bench. He’s already demonstrated an ability to score in bunches while at Xaiver.

So, for the guys we want to draft… Here’s your official GMTR Guidance (for a 12 team league):

Josh Smith – 2nd
Al Horford – 3rd
Joe Johnson – 3rd
Jamal Crawford – 6th
Marvin Williams – 12+
Jeff Teague – Last round

Links

Fantasy Basketball Daily’s Atlanta Hawks Preview
Life is Just a Fantasy… Basketball Blog Previews the Hawks
Damn Lies and Statistics has a great plan to get Marvin Williams back on track
FantasyHype Looks at the Hawks

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Free Agency: Let the fireworks begin!

Erik — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 16:34:22 +0000

While not all of the Los Angeles Lakers’ championship confetti hasn’t had a chance to tumble down to earth yet, it seems the free agency frenzy has gotten my fantasy basketball juices percolating up a bit once again.

Big Names

So far none of the “big names” have committed to anything (anywhere) concrete yet. While James, Wade, and Bosh are still tiptoeing through the hoops to what may or may not be an “awesome threesome,” guys like Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce have re-signed (or at are about to) with their teams, pretty much as expected. As far as fantasy is concerned, we probably won’t see much variance in their stats from last season. Well Pierce might get a bump up if the Celts don’t re-sign Ray Allen, but that’s still speculation at this point. So far, things look good for Boston’s “Old, I meant to say Big, Three” to remain intact and go for one last run for Championship gold. Dirk will be, well, Dirk. Same old, same old. Just a little bit more on the “old,” of course. I was kind of hoping he try his luck with another team, and ignore his “loyalty bone” and stick it out with the only team he’s really ever known. Yes folks, expect a solid regular season from them (Dirk, at least) once again, and unless they make some moves to improve, Dirk will end up looking like THIS (in a basketball kind of metaphor) come the Playoffs:

No, I don’t think Joe Johnson is worth a max deal. Not based on real life. Not based on fantasy. Apparently, the Atlanta Hawks think otherwise. It’s their dime, so I suppose they can overpay players as much as they desire. It’s not like they saw that they had a rabbit’s whisker of a chance to join the “Royal Rumble” of teams seeking, the much more talented, LeBron James’ services. Assuming we do see JJ sign that lucrative deal from the Hawks, we can most likely rest assured that we’ll see his usual second to third round fantasy form once again this coming season. I’d say that works out for all parties concerned. God forbid, we (at GMTR) would have to speculate on what round to draft Jamal Crawford, in the event that Joe decides to play second fiddle to a legitimate superstar.

Amar’e Stoudemire‘s stock has already fallen, slightly, in my book; now that events appear to point to his departure from Phoenix. Why? Well, I’d leave that to those hardcore Shawn Marion fantasy fans to fill you in on those gory little details. The Knicks are supposedly offering him a big deal. I’m not too keen on that from an investment’s perspective though. I mean he’s got bad eyes AND battered knees. Yeah he’s explosive, but how effective will he, can he, be? It’s Channing Frye and his shiny new multi-year contract who’s going to be smiling all the way to the bank. Who would have thunk it, Frye getting inked to a five-year, $30 million deal. Just a season ago, he was all but forgotten. I guess his practice shots from beyond the arc during his stretch of time in the chiller has finally, and literally paid off.

Hakim Warrick may have been signed by the Suns as well, but he will not likely be too much of a threat to Frye’s boost in value. Robin Lopez and his projected improvement, might be more of a threat.

Big Bucks

Drew Gooden has been hit by lightning! Well more to the point, has surprisingly found the a four leaf clover in the form of a five-year, $32 million deal with the Milwaukee Bucks. I like this, in the sense that Luc Mbah a Moute just simply wasn’t cutting it. Gooden has been the duct tape that many teams have used to fortify their front courts in recent history (eight teams since 2002). I’m worried that he’ll end up being a slouch now that he’s got his guaranteed “ka-ching!” in the bag. I’m not holding my breath either that he’ll suddenly learn the finer art of DEFENSE. I kind of like oxygen flowing through my body, thus keeping me ALIVE. Gooden and well more due to the softness of the Bucks’ front court, will be there to bring in some PTS, REB, FG%, for the most part. It does help a bit that he’s generally friendly on the FT% category. He will, however, need to curtail himself from growing his Amish-styled beard. It’s nasty and just way too, uh, Amish. It’s just going to clash with Brandon Jennings’ diagonally inclined Kid ‘n Play doo, should he decide to bring it back in vogue.

John Salmons’ rejoining the team for 2010 is a good thing. Him sharing the floor with recently acquired Corey Maggette, not so much.

Before this ends up being too much like a Bucks team preview, I’ll leave you with those thoughts.

Some Griping and Whining

Sorry boys! Megan Fox is no longer a free agent. Sadly (for the world’s male population), she has signed a contract – you know, the marriage kind – that now prevents her from scoring for your team. She’s now a duo with long-time boyfriend Brian Austin Green. You know, the geeky kid from Beverly Hills 90210. No, not the new series. The OLD one.

Yes, I just inserted that to make sure you were still(?) paying attention.

On a more serious and basketball related note, the Nets’ sent Yi Jianlian to the Washington Wizards. While this has not been directly precipitated by the free agency buffet we have before us now, it was in an attempt to free up more cap space by the Nets. to accommodate some high priced signings, and thus can be mentioned in the same vein as the rest of this piece.

I’ve not been shy about my dislike (yes, I’m being nice with word choice this time) for Yi and his overrated, perceived future upside. And I am happy for the Nets for shedding his waste of roster space. It seems that once again, the Universe has conspired to tick me off…

Just when Anday Blatche, who I have been cult fan of (on and off) in fantasy got some beastly consistency going last 2009, the Wizards land Yi. Sigh. Fine, Blatche broke his foot and is out for about three months, but he needs an alleged “versatile seven footer” to play alongside with like a teen virgin wants an acne outbreak on prom night. Talk about stifling a potentially exciting future. Double sigh.

…and so we wait…

We’re going to have to wait for the marquee names to sign their “winning lottery tickets.”

We’re going to have to wait and see who the big winners and losers are. Yup, there will be losers; and yes it’s going to get ugly. There’s simply too much demand (i.e. suitor teams), then compared to the franchise-altering talent that’s out there. Some teams WILL probably be left out in the cold.

While the three of us are far better well-adjusted and far less geeky than these guys from Big Bang Theory – well at least Patrick and I aren’t on that level of geekhood, yet – we do have a lot of fantasy basketball data, info, and tips that we plan to, I guess, geek out for your discerning fantasy basketball palates in the near future.

We’ve got team previews, which we will begin dishing out shortly; wicked strategy articles; and even possibly some player rankings are coming your way – in trickles, as we don’t want to overload your senses just yet – but, don’t worry things will start to rev up as the free agency dust settles and as we get ever closer to the 2010-2011 fantasy basketball season. Stay tuned. The fireworks are just about to really begin…

P.S. Since I’m on the poetically brilliant “fireworks segue,” I’d like to greet all our readers from the USA a happy fourth of July!

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The Jeff Teague Takover

Nels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:05:38 +0000

or: The Assassination of Mike Bibby’s Career by the Rookie Jeff Teague

If you’ve got Mike Bibby on any of your teams, you’ve probably noticed the same thing I have: His numbers are falling.

Not like a bowling ball into a bathtub of pudding… more like Dollhouse’s Nielsen ratings…

36 minutes on November 13th has become 26 minutes on December 13th. And I’m not just pulling those as isolated incidents. I know this because the decline coincides with another player’s numbers increasing. If you hadn’t guessed already, that player is Jeff Teague. Again, it’s not like he’s shot up like he just took a fistful of Viagra. More like that crack in your ceiling that you didn’t really notice, but now seems like it might be worth trying to do something about.

Teague has gone from 4 minutes on November 13th to 24 minutes on December 13th. He seems pretty happy about it, too.

I’m not saying you should grab Teague right now, especially if you don’t already have Bibby on your team. But, if you have an expendable roster spot, and you have Bibby on your team… it might be worth considering.

After all, this is turning out to be another Year of the Rookie – especially once Blake Griffin is throwing down 20 and 10 every night.

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Day 34 of 170: Does Brooklyn Even Want The Nets?

Nels — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:14:22 +0000

“The beauty of the world, which is so soon to perish, has two edges, one of laughter, one of anguish, cutting the heart asunder.”
– Virginia Woolf

I am completely stunned. I mean, there was no way the Nets would be as good as last year, but at no time did I ever think they could lose 17 games in a row to tie the worst start ever.

Line of the Night: Josh Smith (1.24) had a very Josh Smithy-esque-ish line: 23 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals, and 5 blocks. He’s up to #10 on the Player Rater. I am very sorry for having him ranked so low prior to the start of the season. If he can play another 52 games this season, he will have earned more than an apology. He’ll have my trust.

Honorable Mentions: It was Kobe Bryant (1.23) who helped the Nets tie the record with his 30 points (5 threes), 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. Marc Gasol (1.14) had 26, 5, and 6, adding 3 steals and 3 blocks. Watch those assists – he could be a Small Ball center for next year.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Sergio Rodriguez (0.98) had 24 points in 24 minutes for Sacramento. He also had 5 assists and 2 steals, but that kind of performance is usually pretty hard to repeat. And that’s probably why he’s owned in only 1% of leagues.

The Biggest Loser: I really wanted to find one of the Nets who was responsible for their 17th loss, but then Joe Johnson (-0.56) had to play 43 minutes and shoot 29%. Johnson had 10 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists. What the hell was he doing out there for 43 minutes? Oh, right: Letting Josh Smith do everything.

All Eyez On Me: Do yourself a favor and watch Gossip Girl tonight.

The Golden Ticket: Golden State plays host to Indiana, so let’s see if an injured Danny Granger can still pull out golden fantasy lines with the help of Nellieball.

—–

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