Give Me The Rock » Golden State Warriors

Day 45 of 124: The Return of the Golden Ticket Question Mark

Nels — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:00:18 +0000

Line of the Night: There were 6 games last night, but 5 of the top 10 lines came from only 1 game. 50% versus 16% seems like it has to have some sort of statistical significance. The game that produced those 5 lines was the Golden State Warriors versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. Is the Golden Ticket back? Monta Ellis (3.15) seems to think so. He scored 48 points (3 threes, 18-29 from the field, 9-10 from the line), with 7 rebounds, and 2 steals to win the night. If you’re willing to put money on it, NBA Betting is the best place to find odds.

Honorable Mentions: James Harden (2.27) had the next best line with 19 of OKC’s 116 points (3 threes, 4-4 from the line). Harden also had 7 assists, and 4 steals. Kevin Durant (2.26) took advantage with 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists. Back on Monta’s side of the ball, David Lee (1.66) has a triple double for the dubs with 25 points (7-7 from the line), 11 rebounds, and 10 assists while Stephen Curry (1.51) scored 16 points (7-9 from the field), with 7 rebounds, 10 assists, and 2 steals. Seems like a lot of good passing from both teams. I suppose it helps that they all seemed to shooting the lights out.

Dwyane Wade (1.76) led the Heat over Cleveland with 26 points (8-8 from the line), 6 assists, and 3 steals.

The Pacers won a close one over Utah thanks to Roy Hibbert‘s (1.68) 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks, and Darren Collison‘s (1.66) 25 points (10-14 from the field, 4-4 from the line), and 5 assists.

And finally, Jared Dudley (1.47) tried to make up for lost stat lines with 19 points on 3 threes, and 7-9 from the field.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Nikola Pekovic (1.92) has been talked about a lot on GMTR, but he had yet to actually win the Waiver Wire Line of the Night. Well, last night’s 23 points (9-12 from the field, 5-5 from the line), 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks (32% owned) was more than enough to do it. In fact, it was the 4th best line overall (right after Kevin Durant, and before Dwyane Wade. Not bad company to keep). Still only owned in a third of leagues, but I’m sure he’s been picked up in all the competitive leagues out there.

Pick Up Lines: Ersan Ilyasova (1.59) came off the bench for the Bucks to play a season-high 33 minutes. He was part of a furious comeback that fell just short as the Bucks ralled from down 17 at half time to lost by only 3. Coincidentally, Ilyasova had 17 points (8-8 from the line) to go with 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks (22% owned). He’s been a pretty consistent source of Rebounds and Blocks since Bogut got injured, but his minutes have not been as consistent and his shooting has been horrible. He should probably be on a roster in 12-team and larger leagues, but his inconsistency will probably burn owners in daily leagues.

Mike Dunleavy (1.28) had 17 points with 4 threes going 5-7 from the field, but he’s only a consideration in deep leagues right now (8% owned). If you need a three-point specialist, though, put him on your watch list and see if his minutes stabilize around 25 and his threes at 2 per game. If that happens, then he’s probably worth owning in standard leagues.

Daequan Cook (1.23) has started the last 5 games for the Thunder, and with the aid of The New Golden Ticket, he scored 17 points (5 threes, 6-8 from the field) (3% owned). If you need Threes, Cook is worth a look (rhyming!) – he’s averaging almost 3 a game in the last 6 games. Thabo Sefolosha is supposed to be back “any day now” but I’ve heard that too much this season for it to mean a whole lot. If you have a daily changes league, I’d add Cook and ride him for the threes until Sefolosha is back.

C.J. Miles (0.80) had another pretty good game (12 points, 2 threes, 1 steal, 1 block) and is only owned in 43% of leagues. I’m not sure yet if that’s the cutoff for the percentage of leagues that are large enough and competitive enough to have someone like C.J. Miles on a team, but it’s starting to seem like it’s right around there.

J.J. Hickson (0.80) has 8 points and 11 rebounds with 1 steal and 1 block. Jason Thompson started at PF for the Kings, but Hickson played a minute and a half more since it looked like Sacramento’s Forwards were struggling a bit. DeMarcus Cousins was not struggling though. He only hit 3-13 from the field, but that’s about par for him. Boom, Roasted.

Biggest Loser: Luke Ridnour (-0.75) has fallen on hard times these past few games, and despite 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 assist he tops the list because he’s owned in 48% of leagues and only hit 4-12 shots from the field.

Tyrus Thomas (-0.64) continued to reward the 52% of owners who manage to somehow put up with his maddening inconsistency with 2 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists, and 1-6 shooting from the field. That comes after 8 points and 13 rebounds in the Bobcats last game (though he did shoot 3-14 in that one, so it wasn’t all roses and sunshine).

And last, but probably the true Biggest Loser because of his 92% ownership, the aforementioned DeMarcus Cousins (-0.64). Cousins had a double-double with 10 points and 11 rebounds, but did it the hard way, going 3-13 (23%) from the field and 4-6 from the line. He also had 1 steal and 2 turnovers.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Day 40 of 124: Sleeping Giants

Nels — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 14:37:19 +0000

and not just the players

Line of the Night: It took a little while for Stephen Curry (2.90) to get past the whole Fragile Ankle Syndrome (which could of course reoccur at any time), but he’s finally playing like a second round pick (or first round last night) with 29 points (10-14 from the field, 2 threes), 5 rebounds, 12 assists, and 3 steals. Curry’s teammate Monta Ellis (1.99) had 33 points (3 threes, 13-21 from the field), and 3 steals.

Honorable Mentions: Sleeping Giant #2: The Denver Nuggets. With Danilo Gallinari (1.99) leading the way, the whole season, but also last night with 21 points (5 threes, 7-10 from the field), 6 rebounds, and 4 assists, the Nuggets have the second best record in the West.

Tim Duncan (1.85) is definitely a giant, and from his play earlier this season, it sure seemed like he was sleeping, but last night her woke up to score 19 points (6-8 from the field, 7-7 from the line(!)), to go with 9 rebounds, and 2 steals.

Amare Stoudemire (1.68) scored 34 points, and grabbed 11 rebounds, but fell prey to Derrick Rose (1.66) who was just pretending to sleep against Philadelphia in order to give more false hope to the 76ers. Rose scored 32 points (2 threes) against the Knicks to go with 13 assists (2 turnovers).

Since he’s been called out a couple times in The Biggest Loser, I felt it only right to mention that Raymond Felton (1.41) had 15 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals last night (pun intended).

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Randy Foye (1.83) got some extra time because Chauncey Billups was struggling with his shot. Foye scored 17 points (7-11 from the field), with 3 steals (3% owned). He passes the 70% rule, but 63% shooting is still pretty hard to keep for any period of time. And so is 27 minutes a game when you’re on a team with Chris Paul, Billups, and Mo Williams.

Pick Up Lines: Having just picked him up before writing this sentence, I am going to declare Gordon Hayward (1.75) an official Good Pick Up. Hayward scored 21 points (8-8 from the line), with 4 assists, and 2 steals (22% owned) for his 4th good-for-a-free-agent game in a row. With all the injuries going around, you might need someone who can play SG or SF (perhaps to replace Gerald Henderson who strained his hamstring and will be out at least 2 weeks).

I have to admit, I did not know which team Jamaal Tinsley (1.22) was playing for. Turns out, it’s Gordon Hayward’s Utah Jazz (yes, that was intended to be some mix of ironic and sarcastic). Tinsley got the start as the Jazz finally decided that Devin Harris had injured his brain (though they claim it’s his hamstring). JT played 34 minutes even in a lopsided loss to Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis (I don’t think anyone else on the Warriors really needs to play when those two are healthy) and he ended up with 9 points, 6 rebounds, 13 assists, and 2 steals (1% owned). If you’re in a deep league or a competitive league (or heaven forbid, both) then you probably want to snap him up on the off-chance that he continues getting those kind of minutes even when Harris returns.

(Image: Dustin Curtis)

Swimming upstream once again is John Salmons (1.21) with 19 points (3 threes), and 8 rebounds (31% owned) (pun intended). I would err on the side of “he’s already owned in every league where he should be” (and probably more than that) on this one.

Kyle Korver (1.20) did that thing he does wherein he makes threes and then you think about picking him up. To get to 16 points (3 threes) he added 5-5 from the line (13% owned), and it probably doesn’t bear repeating, but Results Not Typical.

Besides Hayward and the riskier Tinsley, I’d say a couple guys worth taking a look at are: Dante Cunningham (1.03), who had 8 points, and 12 rebounds (1% owned), and Josh Howard (0.92), who I even picked up and dropped at one point so far this year. Howard had 19 points (7-10 from the field), and 4 assists (7% owned), so while he doesn’t actually qualify as a legit pick up due to the 70% rule, I still say take a look just because when he gets the time, he can put up numbers. If anything, at least click the little flag button (or whatever you do in your league to add someone to your watch list) and keep him on your radar. Cunningham is more inconsistent with a much lower upside, but for deep league managers who need some blocks and boards, he might still have value for another month or more until Zach Randolph returns.

Biggest Loser: Of course… I/We have been telling people to keep C.J. Miles, so it would stand to reason that he go and shit a brick on the court. C.J. Miles (-1.62) had 3 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, and was 1-6 from the field last night.

I think it’s time to call it quits on the DeJuan Blair Experiment (-0.89). Blair managed just 3 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 assist, going 1-6 from the field. He’s already a pretty bad FT shooter, so when he shoots like that from the field, you have to worry.

For anyone (because there was at least one person) thinking about picking up Trevor Ariza (-0.62), you have been warned: 5 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers, and 2-10 from the field. It better be a deep league.

***

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Day 34 of 124: Friday Night Basketball is like Monday Night Football

Nels — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 15:01:29 +0000

Because everyone played like they were on national TV last night. (Okay, not everyone, but look at the numbers below)

Line of the Night: I tried to tell people (probably a bit too gently) to hang on to Dorell Wright (3.18). Wright lit it up with 23 points (6 threes), 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Warriors have a back loaded schedule. Anyone who hung on to Wright will have 4 game weeks one after the other right when they count the most.

Honorable Mentions: Dwyane Wade (2.96) returned to help the Heat beat New York, scoring 28 points (6-6 from the line), with 4 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks in his first game back. Save it for the playoffs DWyane!

Paul Pierce (2.92) continued to carry the Celtics like it was 2005 (or 2006). Pierce scored 28 points (4 threes, 4-4 from the line), along with a near triple-double of 10 rebounds and 8 assists, adding 3 steals, and 2 blocks. Anything else you want from a stat line?

Joakim Noah (2.46) seems to have finally gotten his head screwed on straight, scoring 15 points (6-10 from the field), with 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 3 blocks. Granted, that came against a Bucks team who is now starting Drew Gooden (see below for Gooden’s monster offensive, but not defensive, line).

Russell Westbrook (2.39) probably won you the steals category last night with 7 of them, and also put up 28 points, 6 rebounds, and 11 assists (and somehow the Player Rater was okay with his 7 turnovers).

I know someone who is counting on Deron Williams (2.24) to carry his team now that Andrew Bogut is out at least 8 weeks with his fractured ankle. Deron didn’t disappoint with 27 points (5 threes), 10 assists, and 2 steals. Not going to make up for the blocks, but it’ll help with #winning the other cats.

Josh Smith (2.22) continued to take advantage of Al Horford’s absence with a near triple-double: 19 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 blocks.

I dropped Kyrie Irving (2.09) for Drew Gooden yesterday and Irving felt so disrespected that he put up 32 points (12-20 from the field), 6 rebounds, and 2 steals just to show me what I’ll be missing. I know, Kyrie. But I had to. I’m sorry. I’ll make it up by drafting you in every league I’m in next year.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: I know you want it to be Drew Gooden, but you’ll have to wait because Rodrigue Beaubois (3.06) score 22 points (3 threes, 9-15 from the field), with 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 blocks (11% owned). I’m not sure what’s more confusing: That the Give Me The Rock Fantasy Basketball Player Rater gave him the second highest score of the night despite the 2 turnovers and only 1-1 from the line, or that Rodrigue Beaubois got 4 blocks… Come on, how tall is that guy? He’s listed at 6′ 2″ which probably means he’s like 5′ 11″. The only guys on the Jazz with Blocked Attempts were Earl Watson (1), Devin Harris (2), and Al Jefferson (2), which means that at least one of Beaubois’s blocks was on Big Al. Ouch.

Pick Up Lines: Rudy Fernandez (2.35) returned from a strained achilles tendon to play 33 minutes and score 23 points (5 threes, 9-11 from the field), getting 3 steals as well (18% owned). If he gets back to averaging his 28 minutes game like earlier in the season, then he’ll be worth owning.

And now, the moment everyone who picked up Drew Gooden (2.04) has been waiting for: 23 points (10-10 from the line), 15 rebounds, and 6 assists (36% owned). If that ownership number doesn’t shoot up in the next couple of days, then we’ll have a very good idea of how many dead leagues there are out there. Probably more than 20,000 of them under the sea. Anyway… consider yourself lucky if you managed to snag Gooden, because while no one wants to start him and playing him for 33 minutes a game, he has shown that when he starts and plays 33 minutes a game, he can put up double-doubles like that consistently. He averaged 14 and 9 for Chicago in 2007-08, but I think he just missed out on Scott Skiles… Well, now Scotty gets to beam him up to fantasy superstardom! (Sorry, that was just stupid)

Bill Walker (1.76) came off the bench to light it up for he Knicks with his 21 points coming off of 7-10 three-pointers. He also had 7 rebounds (1% owned). Carmelo Anthony sat that one out, so I wouldn’t count on that kind of thing happening too often.

Someone you might want to consider picking up, though, is Klay Thompson (1.70), who had 14 points (6-8 from the field, 2 threes), and 3 blocks (3% owned). He’s getting 17 minutes per game and has shown flashes of some three-point shooting ability. He’s a GF in Yahoo leagues, so that might be worth something… Deep league owners should take a look, and he could have value in some smaller leagues (but probably still bigger than 12 teams) if he starts getting 20+ minutes per game. Also, he’s on Golden State, which as I mentioned has a very nice back end schedule.

Speaking of backend schedule…

Josh Smith hasn’t been the only one stepping up since Al Horford’s injury. Marvin Williams (1.55) has played 20+ minutes in the last 7 games and last night he connected on 5 threes for 22 points (6-9 from the field), to go with 8 rebounds (24% owned). He’s not really consistent in any categories, but he can contribute across several and if his playing time keeps going up, he’ll probably continue to get picked up in leagues of increasingly smaller size.

Biggest Loser: Dwight Howard (1.24) had 28 points and 16 rebounds, and his 10-17 free throw shooting was actually pretty decent for him, so obviously he was not the Biggest Loser. But when you know that he scored 42% of his teams points, then you might start thinking that one or more of his teammates is going to be gain the dubious distinction. You can see where this is going: Hedo Turkoglu (-1.10) had 3 points (1-7 from the field), 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 6 turnovers while Jameer Nelson (-0.88) scored only 2 points (1-4 from the field) with 0 rebounds, and 0 assists. The Hornets (4-15) beat the Magic by 26 points. Dwight Howard may not be asking for a trade anymore, but you know he’s not going to stick around with teammates like that.

In The Bonus: Erik debates Is Kyle Lowry better than Derrick Rose over at Pippen Ain’t Easy. I think he did that just to rile up Bulls fans over on a Bulls-centric blog. And he got in a bunch of links back to GMTR, so Bravo!

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Stephen Curry Owners Can Breathe A Sigh Of Relief

Nels — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 14:17:14 +0000

Because now you don’t have to worry all season about when he’s going to re-injure his ankle. It’s all ready happened. Just after listening to how Tom over at Damn Lies and Stats took Curry 7th overall in the vaunted Friends and Family League, I saw the news about Curry.

So, now that your team is injured… how about some insult for dessert?

According to the SF Chronicle:

Curry was trying to defend Jimmer Fredette’s crossover at the top of the key when his ankle gave way. He crawled toward the sidline at midcourt in agony and put little pressure on the troublesome ankle as teammates Charles Jenkins and Tommy Mitchell acted as his crutches to the locker room.

(Emphasis mine)

Holy shit. Sorry for the swearing, but Jimmer Fredette’s has yet to play a regular season game and he has already broken someone’s ankles! (Okay, just “sprained” they say, but still!)

Fantasy Impact
We had Curry at #9 on our most recent projections, but that was with him playing 35 minutes per game. In H2H leagues, his injury shouldn’t hurt quite as much since he’ll still be able to put up numbers in all the games he does end up playing. But if you haven’t already drafted and especially if you’re in a Roto league, move Curry down your rankings until we can ascertain the extent of the damage. If Curry does end up missing time, Monta Ellis will probably be the main benefactor. Might not hurt to move him up a draft board (though as a high second round pick, there’s not a lot of room to push him up). Ellis played a few extra minutes and saw a corresponding bump in his stats in December 2010 which was when Curry missed the bulk of his time last year.

In the mean time, don’t worry, Steph. You’re in good company.

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Day 137 of 170: Jordan Farmar Gets Lucky

Nels — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 15:25:16 +0000

You’ll have to get to the Waiver Wire Line of the Night to see what the post title is referring to… but in the mean time…

Line of the Night: Monta Ellis (3.49) scores his second LotN in 5 games (not bad when you consider LotN means he was the best fantasy player out of every one on a given night) and this time, the Warrios got the win (over the Magic no less). Ellis contributed 39 points (7 threes), 6 rebounds, 11 assists, and 4 steals. As opposed to the last time, Ellis had a lot of help this time as both Dorell Wright (2.05) with his 32 points (8 threes, 12-17 from the field), and 6 rebounds, and Stephen Curry (1.49), who had 22 points (4 threes), 12 assists, and 3 steals make the honorable mentions list.

Honorable Mentions: Other HMs include: Hedo Turkoglu (2.13) who was going against Ellis and the Warriors, and while it didn’t work out this time for his team, it never hurts fantasy owners to have guys playing the Warriors. Hedo had 24 points (4 threes, 9-15 from the field), 4 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks. Kevin Durant (2.12) added another 24 points (11-11 from the line) to his career total, along with 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals. Kevin Love‘s (1.81) is starting to look like that train in Unstoppable when it comes to double-doubles (And yes, that’s the second reference to Unstoppable so far this year – how many more can we get in over the next 33 days?). Love notched another with 24 points (9-12 from the field, 4-4 from the line) and 12 rebounds. James Harden (1.74) stepped up for the Thunder with 22 points (4 threes, 7-11 from the field, 4-4 from the line) and 3 steals. Jason Richardson (1.44) scored 30 points which is not necessarily a remarkable feat, but he did it with 7 threes, so fantasy-wise that’s some good stuff. It’s lucky Orlando made that trade with Phoenix because if they’d just gotten Gilbert Arenas and given away Rashard Lewis, it would have looked pretty bad on the management down there.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Congrats to Jordan Farmar (1.49) and congrats to Deron Williams. D-Will’s wife gave birth to their 4th child (at 26 can we call Deron a baby making machine?) and Farmar took advantage of Williams’s family time to score 24 points (5 threes), dish 7 assists, and grab 3 steals (7% owned). Also, good for the Nets and fantasy owners alike, this means that Williams has taken some time to let his wrist heal up a bit. At 5 games back of 8th place, I guess they still have a shot, and a healthy Deron will certainly help the cause. Needless to say, Farmer is probably not a great pick up.

Pick Up Lines: D.J. White (1.42) plays for the Bobcats (just to get that out of the way). Yesterday, he playd for 28 minutes and had 16 points (6-9 from the field, 4-4 from the line), 9 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. That line is blazing hot for a guy who’s 1% owned. White has averaged 21 minutes per game since going to Charlotte as part of one of those trade deadline deals. I am not confident enough in him to recommend that you actually pick him up with the fantasy playoffs so close, but if you need a PF whose last 4 out of 5 games have been pretty decent, like I said, he’s only 1% owned.

Francisco Garcia (1.11) may still be available in some leagues and he’s always been good for a few points and still, e.g, his line last night: 14 points (4-4 from the line), and 4 steals (28% owned). Side note: He’s ranked #28 on the GMTR Player Rater over the past month.

Omri Casspi (1.02) helped keep Sacramento in the game against the league-leading Spurs with his 16 points on 6-9 shooting. His 16% ownership is probably a bit low since he’s hanging around the 130′s over the past month, but at this point, he’s probably not consistent enough to move into any fantasy contender’s rotation.

Speaking of inconsistent: Gordon Hayward (0.89) played 27 minutes (probably mostly garbage time, due to the 21 point loss to the Timberwolves) and scored 18 points (5 threes, 6-8 from the field). Keep him in mind next year, but it’s too late for him this season.

Biggest Loser: Devin Harris (-1.30) is starting for the Utah Jazz because they traded their starting PG, but his game has been a bit off since arriving in Utah. I’m sure some of the reason for the 8 points, 0 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 turnovers was that he was just having an off night and he’s only played 8 games with his new team. And he had has some good games with the Jazz, but you can bet they’re hoping that Derrick Favors turns on the beast mode next year.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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Day 130 of 170: Ellis Is An Island

Nels — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:50:22 +0000

Line of the Night: When Monta Ellis (2.52) comes up with 41 points (4 threes, 11-12 from the line), 6 rebounds, and 4 assists you would think the Warriors stand a good chance of winning. And they probably do. But the only team winning last night was anyone who’s fantasy team has Ellis on it. Last night, on the Warriors, Ellis stood alone. (Actually David Lee had a pretty decent game, but just go with it for the sake of the post)

Honorable Mentions: Andre Iguodala (2.34) just keeps plugging along and throwing in some big stats every once in a while. Like the triple-double he posted last night: 22 points (6-6 from the line), 10 rebounds, 13 assists. Can’t argue with that one. Kevin Durant (2.05) scored 29 points (4 threes, 5-5 from the line), with 8 rebounds and 5 assists. Channing Frye (1.86) must have remembered that he wanted to get paid, so he made some shots and ended up with 20 points (5 threes), 9 rebounds, and 2 steals (sorry, I just can’t let that one go). Ray Allen (1.79) continued to be an efficient scorer with 27 points on 5 threes, and 9-13 from the field. Then there’s Elizabeth Vargas’s favorite player: Kevin Love (1.74) who had 21 points, 23 rebounds, and 2 blocks. And I’m not even going to explain that one. I’ll let you figure it out.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: It’s kind of scary to mention Matt Bonner (1.77) as part of a wrecking crew that destroyed the Miami Heat, but you can’t deny the fact that he had 18 points (6 threes, 6-7 from the field), and 5 rebounds. I’m thinking that’s very unlikely to happen again, but deep league owners might be interested in the fact that Bonner has played over 20 minutes in 8 of his last 10 games and is consistently making over 1 three per game. He may be the Red Rocket instead of the Blonde Bomber, but he can drop ‘em in there.

Pick Up Lines: After two absolutely horrendous games, Anthony Parker (1.34) came back with a halfway decent 13 points (3 threes, 5-8 from the field) and 7 assists. He has worked his way up to 17% ownership, so there’s definitely some sort of value there.

Damion James (0.97) is someone to put on your radar… Or at least add to the list of NBA players’ names that you know. Last night he had 15 points (5-5 from the line) and 7 rebounds, but I’d wait for another game or two to see if the run he’s having continues.

Brandon Bass (0.96) continues his fantasy-value-killing timeshare with Ryan Anderson. Last night, evidently SVG wanted Bass down low to combat Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer, and so B-Dub played 32 minutes and ended up with 16 points (6-9 from the field, 4-4 from the line) and 2 blocks. If you’re in a daily changes league, you could work some killer strategy by alternating Bass and Anderson depending on who the Magic are playing… but for everyone else, I’m not sure that either of them is worth owning since they could play 30 minutes one game and only 20 the next.

It’s nothing personal, but I hate Jarrett Jack (0.92). At least as a fantasy player. I’ve drafted him and been burned by him far too many times. That said, he has a nice 3 game run going with the Hornets right now including his lastest: 19 points (3 threes, 4-4 from the line) and 1 steal.

Biggest Loser: Anyone who owns David West (-0.81) I suppose. West is technically the Biggest Loser since he had a line of 0 points, 0 rebounds, and 0 assists, but considering he only played 4 minutes before spraining his ankle, it’s his owners who are going to be feeling the sting. (Pun!) While the sprain is still being called “severe” West says he’s going to play on Sunday. Not sure how effective a Shooter/Rebounder type guy is going to be on a bum ankle, though. Deron Williams can still pass the ball with a sore wrist, even if doesn’t score as much… I don’t think West has many other options. But, at least owners have a game on Sunday to decide if they want to start him next week.

So, the next biggest loser is Stephen Jackson (-0.81) who also makes a good cast study for the effectiveness of an injured player. His last two games, Jackson has put up nearly identical numbers which look something like 8 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 turnovers, and 3-10 from the field shooting. If you go three games back, though, he scored 35. Luckily Jackson owners, like West owners, get one more game before next week to assess how things are going.

Keep An Eye Out: While Troy Murphy (-0.65) was hanging around with the biggest losers last night with his 0 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 0-4 from the field, he is clearly still working his way back to game readiness as well as adjusting to a new team. Hard to say if he’ll be ready in time for fantasy owners to take advantage, or if he’ll only be useful for the Celtics in the real life playoffs.

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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GMTR Podcast #12: Stephen Curry and His Ankles

Patrick — Sun, 12 Dec 2010 22:02:13 +0000

Erik and Patrick discuss Stephen Curry’s injury, John Wall’s hall of fame induction speech, whether to drop or keep a few specific slumping players, throw out our weekly waiver wire recommendations, and mention the Kim Kardashian/Kris Humphries hookup simply for SEO reasons.

Right-click to download here or iTunes that shiz: http://givemetherock.com/feed/podcast/

Spoiler Alert:

If you don’t wanna listen to the podcast, here are the waiver wire players we recommended:

- Linas Kleiza
- Mario Chalmers
- Reggie Williams
- Daniel Gibson
- Pooh Jeter
- Mike Miller

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Fantasy Basketball Roundtable: On Stephen Curry

Nels — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 00:45:28 +0000

Welcome to Fantasy Basketball Roundtable #2 for the 2010-2011 season. Since I was able to recruit a few new Knights to this Round Table, I earned the honor of being The Questioner for this week’s Roundtable. If you look at the number of responses below you might not think that assembling all of them was really an honor. (We still have a ways to go to get up to the number of the real Knights of the Round Table)

I must have had a super awesome question to generate such well though-out, lengthy responses… And that question was:
What do you think of Stephen Curry going at an average of 7.9 in Yahoo drafts? That’s above Danny Granger, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Amar’e Stoudemire, and David Lee… What do you think of Curry’s prospects compared to those other potential first round picks?

Our very own Patrick:

Color me worried about Stephen Curry. Yes, the kid is the proud owner of one of the sweetest shots this side of Ray Allen and he had the best fantasy season from a rookie since… well, possibly ever. But a player isn’t guaranteed to improve simply because they are entering their second season in the league, especially when their rookie season featured the perfect storm of Don Nelson.

Now a sophomore slide isn’t guaranteed to happen to Curry, but it’s a possibly that everyone seems to be ignoring. And given reports out of Warriors camp, a slide from Curry may be inevitable as he adjusts to life as a more traditional point guard. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Curry is struggling to adjust to Coach Keith Smart’s new offensive system. And by new, I mean that he actually has an offensive system:

“The 14 turnovers in the last two games are part of a training-camp-long problem. Curry has 28 assists to 28 turnovers in the shortened playing time of five preseason games. That equates to 9.1 turnovers per 48 minutes. New coach Keith Smart is running more half-court sets, with a motion offense subbed for the pick-and-roll game. As Curry learns the new offense, he also is learning the tendencies of an overhauled roster. With less spacing on the floor and the necessity of precise timing to connect with cutting teammates, Curry has looked out of sorts at time.”

Curry will eventually learn the new offense and he is too good a player to let slide past the second round in most drafts, but am I drafting him in the mid-first round? Hell no. Instead, I’ll sit back and wait for the “Stephen Curry is off to a slow start” articles to start popping up in mid-November.

Erik referencing this podcast:

I pretty much stand pat on our view, when Patrick and I discussed Curry in GMTR’s podcast. Curry was the beneficiary of an extremely ideal situation back in 2009. The often times, six or seven man rotation, the Nellie-ball, the injuries to his teammates. What we saw last season is a sneak peak of his upper ranges as far as fantasy value goes. I predict that Steph will end the season as a Top 25 player, but not necessarily a Top 12 one. He’ll still be a rock-solid source of PTS, 3′s, some AST, some STL’s. He will take a step back, statistically, in 2010-11 but only slightly.

Ryan Lester of Lester’s Legends:

That seems a bit high for my tastes. If Don Nelson was returning I could maybe stomach taking him that high, but I can’t imagine Keith Smart will run an offense that is quite as high-tempo.

I expect his scoring to increase in his second season to around the 22 ppg mark to go along with 7 assists a night. He’ll get a decent rebound total for a PG, shoot at a solid clip from the field, knock down a bunch of treys, rarely miss from the line, and pick up a couple of steals per game. He will also turn the ball over a bit.

One of the reasons for the bloated stats at the end of the year was Golden State’s injury situation. It would hard for them to not be healthier this season, and the increased depth will keep him from putting up the April numbers that are worthy of a top seven pick.

Would I take him over Granger? Possibly because of health issues the past couple of seasons. However, I would rather get the likes of Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Amar’e Stoudemire to start my foundation. Maybe grab a Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, Steve Nash, Tyreke Evans, etc. on the way back. The big men that will be available if you take Curry that early won’t be nearly as talented.

Jason Hahn of Fantasy Basketball Blog:

You’ve got to figure that a major factor that’s built into that 7.9 number is the fact that a good number of casual fantasy basketball owners probably don’t know about coach Don Nelson’s departure or what that really means for Curry’s fantasy production. That said, 7.9 is a bit bullish for Curry, mostly because of the uncertainty that coach Keith Smart brings to that team. I don’t doubt that the Warriors will continue to be a prolific team, but will they repeat as the No. 2 scoring team in the league? Maybe not.

However, with so many offensive weapons now gone from Oakland and with Jeremy Lin currently the only backup point guard on that squad, it’s clear that Curry will have no problem matching or even exceeding the 36:12 he played last season and expanding his prominent role in that team’s offense. Also, don’t underestimate the impact of: 1) Monta Ellis’ apparent peace with his situation on the Warriors, 2) coach Smart’s goal of cutting down Ellis’ minutes this season and 3) the pressure taken off the backcourt with David Lee in the frontcourt.

All that said, I don’t have a problem taking Curry over Granger, Howard, Stoudemire and Lee. But I can’t justify taking him over Williams and Gasol. Curry at the end of the first round makes sense to me.

Henry Sherrell of Weakside Help:

I’ll say this right at the top, I’m a big believer in Stephen Curry. He is more than just a special talent. His squad will continue to play Nellie-ball (albeit at a slightly reduced rate), he will improve with increased experience, he has better teammates surrounding him (mainly David Lee in the middle who was a pick n’ roll monster at New York) and he does everything you could ask for and more.

I love his potential to build on all the right point guard categories (points, assists, 3ptm, FT%, steals). You just cannot just the type of numbers he put up last season anywhere else. I know it’s only 8 games with a depleted roster, but check out his April 2010 stats: 26 points, 8 assists, 6 boards, 3.1 3ptm, 47%-89%, 2.6 steals and even 0.4 blocks (3.1 turnovers). This isn’t just a very good collection of numbers… it ranked as the number 1 option for the entire league in that period (and for the final 4 weeks of the season) despite Durant averaging about 33/10. It’s just sick.

But more than any other reason, I think Curry’s prospects are so high because of the general unknown factor regarding nearly everyone else. After one of the most active off-seasons in recent memory for player movement and squad upheaval, it’s no wonder people are unsure of certain players. Granger has a new point guard and is already injured. Williams has lost his most potent offensive friend (Boozer) who was replaced by someone who commands the ball to be effective (Jefferson). Stoudemire and David Lee are both in new environments. Dwight Howard still can’t hit free throws (but a caveat here, in H2H leagues you should take him above Curry) and Pau Gasol has never been a fantasy favorite.

In any other season, Curry doesn’t deserve to go so high. But the combination of his almost unlimited potential, his recent production history at the end of last season and the shaky ground which many other top fantasy players find themselves in leads to a fairly high average draft position. I can safely say if I have any pick from 5 through to 12 and he is still on the board, I will be taking him over some of his more esteemed colleagues.

Adam from Razzball:

I’m in one league where we draft according to how hypnotizing a player’s eyes are, so in that league, Curry’s 7.9 ADP actually seems a tad low. In other, less homoerotic leagues, grabbing Curry anywhere between picks five and 14 seem rational. The top tier of picks should always go to the largest talent and the safest play. Save the upside for later. But this year, there’s a surprising dearth of safe top-tier picks and Curry’s upside is too compelling (… As are his eyes! Sorry. I’ll calm down). Yeah he’s being picked above guys like Granger and Amar’e, but one’s got a ton of health concerns heaped on him and the other plays for the Knicks! I’ve seen Curry picked over Kobe (knees?) and ‘Melo (effort?) and Pau (Bynum?) and Wade (LeBron?) and I can’t really blame the thought process behind any of them. I don’t think he’ll improve on his stats from last year, nor do I believe he’ll dip far below them. Whatever Curry loses from playing in an organized Warrior offense instead of the bonkers pop-a-shot program Don Nelson installed, he’ll make up in natural development and defensive and efficiency stats. Despite Curry only being a sophomore, he’s as good of a bet as anyone after Durant and LeBron. Honestly, the first tier hasn’t been this wide open since fantasy owners wrestled endlessly with having to choose between Nate Thurmond and Billy Cunningham with the fifth pick back in ‘69! Remember that!? Of course you do. Why wouldn’t you? I wouldn’t go for Curry until sometime after the 10th pick, but I understand why others would.

Allen from Fantasy Basketball Daily:

I’m probably going to be the most negative response on the entire roundtable, but I don’t think you can gamble with your first round draft pick in this situation. I like Stephen Curry, but I also like having an experienced and dependable option that I can plug in and know for certain what I’m getting. Let’s face it, Curry is a gamble, and there are several things that could blow up in your face here. Why gamble on Curry just to find out that he’s basically on the same level as Nash, Rose, Williams and Rondo? Those guys offer the same production without the downside risk of Curry. Play it safe.

So what could go wrong with Curry? First, the Warriors have a new head coach who will struggle this season to develop his own style. We have all read how he wants to improve the defense and improve the half-court offense. The Warriors ran at the fastest pace in the league last season and any reduction in that pace is definitely going to hurt Curry’s fantasy production. If the offense moves from transition oriented to more half-court oriented, then you could be looking at a large number of touches for David Lee, and I think those touches come at the expense of Curry and not Ellis. Ellis doesn’t care, he’s still going to get his, which leaves Curry as the only distributor. More distributing means less shooting.

Another factor that many people are overlooking is the fact that Curry played huge minutes last season because the Warriors simply ran out of players due to injury. I believe Curry even fouled out of one game but was allowed to keep playing because Golden State didn’t have anyone left on the bench. Lee is now an option, Biedrins seems healthy and even Dorell Wright has the ability to contribute heavily on offense, all of which will take opportunity away from Curry. It’s easy to pile up gaudy stats like Curry did last season when there aren’t any other offensive options available. Let’s face it, Curry got a lot of last season’s stats by default because the Warriors just had nothing else to offer. Much has changed in the offseason and I think drafters would be wise to figure that into their evaluation of Curry.

Curry is priced to perfection in the first round and I think there is more downside risk than upside reward in that draft position. There are many things that could go wrong here which could leave gambling fantasy owners looking up in the standings at wise owners who took the sure thing rather than the wild gamble. In my opinion, the gamble just isn’t worth it.

Jeff Andriesse from Damn Lies and Statistics:

I’m a fan of Curry’s. He kills it in three categories (threes, steals, FT%), is very solid in two others (points, assists) and will have a full season coming up of playing close to 40 minutes a game for the Warriors. Don Nelson leaving gives me a little pause, but I’m willing to pull the trigger on Curry ahead of all the players mentioned in the question. Now, there are some caveats. In a head-to-head league, I consider Howard the No. 4 overall pick and will take him over Curry, but not in a roto league. Granger’s numbers are better than Curry’s, but I’m reluctant to spend a first-round pick on someone who is hurt as often as Granger is. While it is true that Curry’s assists aren’t what they should be for a first-round point guard, he trumps Deron Williams in almost every other category. I also think Curry will average around 20 points per game this year, an improvement on last season’s numbers. All he has to do is get along well with Monta Ellis and the two of them can form one of the most explosive offensive backcourts in the league. Keith Smart might play a more structured style of ball, but that doesn’t mean the Warriors will be much better defensively. They will have to push the pace and give Curry and Ellis free reign most nights to attack and attack as they will play from behind often. All of this adds up to a middle of the first round type of selection, and 7th or 8th seems about right. Match Curry with an efficient shot-blocking big in the second round (Brook Lopez?) and you have nearly every category covered right away. Curry’s a solid building block if you miss out on one of the few elite superstars early in drafts.

Justin from Life is Just A Fantasy Basketball Blog:

Nellieball is dead, but Stephen Curry’s first-round fantasy value is very much alive. Steph is worth a middle first-round pick, and I would have even considered drafting him with the fourth pick had Don Nelson not been given a permanent Hawaiian vacation. Yahoo’s 7.9 rating feels right to me, and I won’t hesitate to grab him before Deron Williams, Pau Gasol, David Lee and Amar’e Stoudemire. No question I’d take him before the perpetually injured Danny Granger, even before Granger’s sprained his ankle. Curry or Dwight Howard is a tough call in head-to-head leagues, but I’d end up taking Curry because I don’t want to work around Howard’s well-noted weaknesses. Steph is going to be the least affected by the coaching change. I’m still expecting big, across-the-board numbers from Curry — unless he chokes on his mouth guard. Safety first, Steph.

Dennis Velasco from Fanway:

If Stephen Curry were any candy, he’d be like Reese’s Pieces when the movie E.T. came out. Despite being a less-than-awesome NBA team in regards to Ws, the Golden State Warriors are a pretty good source in the fantasy basketball sense. And, yes, I still believe that even though Don Nelson was given the boot like a “lady of the night” after one’s two minutes of pleasure, the team is still brimming with fantasy potential.

Basically, we’re like E.T. searching for plant life to study, following a trail of Reese’s Pieces to achieve our goal. Except the goal for us is winning a fantasy basketball league and Curry is an integral piece to getting it done. Oh, also we don’t have glowing hearts that shine through our chests, extendable giraffe-like necks, and fingers that light up. Although I wouldn’t mind having some Drew Barrymore… to be clear, adult Drew Barrymore!

Curry with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 7.9 in Yahoo! leagues isn’t surprising or too early. In fact, I bet that since this question has been asked to the Roundtable, his ADP has risen. Curry’s ability to snap nets, convert at the stripe, hit from deep, rip rocks, and drop dimes at a significant rate makes him an attractive player to draft.

There were many doubters that wondered if Curry and Monta Ellis could co-exist on the court at the same time and the answer was a resounding “you bet your ass.” The dynamic duo played 60+ games together and neither’s fantasy value suffered. In fact, Curry and Ellis had a sort of symbiotic relationship where defenders had to sweat Curry on the perimeter and Ellis taking it to the rack and chucking jumpers.

At the heart of it all, the reason Curry is getting mad love from fantasy basketball managers are his Post All-Star stats last season:

29 games; 39.2 MPG; 22.1 PPG; 5.5 RPG; 7.7 APG; 2.7 3PTM; 46.8 FG%; 90.6 FT%; 2.0 SPG

Can Curry sustain those numbers over a full season? Well, let’s look at the total season numbers for more context:

80 games; 36.2 MPG; 17.5 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 5.9 APG; 2.1 3PTM; 46.2 FG%; 88.5 FT%; 1.9 SPG

Other than discernible differences in points and assists, things are pretty much close. So, considering Curry’s youth (not only does he look like he’s twelve-years-old, but last season was only his rookie campaign), lack of depth at the point guard position, the synergy he has with Ellis, and seemingly “figuring it out” proven by his Post All-Star numbers, Curry could very well repeat those numbers. There’s still the ubiquitous upside with him.

In comparison to the aforementioned Danny Granger, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Amar’e Stoudemire, and David Lee, Curry is a better overall package. Granger has played 67 and 62 games, respectively, in the past two seasons, so durability is a question. Williams is only better in the assists category. Howard dominates three categories (FG%, rebounds, blocks), but is infamously known as a FT% terror and adds nothing more in categories in comparison to Curry. Gasol is a solid draft pick, but his numbers aren’t outstanding enough to consider in the top six picks, whereas Curry’s value from the point guard position is higher. Stoudemire’s overall numbers aren’t better than Gasol’s and therefore not better than Curry’s. Lee should continue to be a double-double machine, but will probably score less as Curry and Ellis will dominate the ball for the Warriors. Across the board, Curry contributes to a noticeable degree in every category other than in blocks, and doesn’t hurt you anywhere else.

So, if you’re drafting and picking in the middle of the first round of a standard-sized league, waddle slow, eat some candy, choose Curry, and phone home letting your peeps know your first pick.

William from Roto Professor:

I can absolutely see why Curry is being taken at this point in the draft, the potential is absolutely through the roof and it’s exciting to think about just what Curry could do. I’m getting sucked into the mania like everyone else, I have him ranked number 9 in my recent Top 200. That puts him in the first round for me and it puts him above all the big men mentioned above. The reason for this is that in my opinion all those big men are real close together and you should be able to land one of them on the turn, whereas if you miss out on Curry I think there is a bit more of a drop off to the next point guard.

That said, I do think there is a risk involved in drafting Curry, especially as your first pick. While he looked awfully good last year in his time as a starter, there are still question marks. He’s still relatively unproven, and he’s being asked to change his game somewhat dramatically this year. He’s no longer in a free to run offense like he was with Don Nelson. This year he’s going to be in a more halfcourt offense under Keith Smart and we are already seeing signs of an adjustment problem. So far this preseason he has 28 assists, and 28 turnovers. That’s not the kind of Assist to Turnover rate you want from your first round point guard. I think it’s only a matter of time before he corrects these mistakes and turns the corner, but it’s still a red flag.

He is also playing with nearly a whole new team, including David Lee and a healthy Andris Biedrins. The presence of those two should dramatically reduce the number of rebounds Curry gets from the 4.5 he averaged as a rookie. And while he should up the number of assists from last season’s 5.9 per game, don’t expect it to be a huge jump because Monta Ellis is still in town and he’s really like a second point guard on the court and he’ll spend plenty of time with the ball in his hands.

Those are a few question marks to go with Curry’s inexperience, and while I think the potential reward outweighs the risk as far as drafting Curry in the first round, I still wouldn’t take him above a sure thing like Deron Williams. He’s almost the safest guy in the first round because you know what you’re going to get and he hasn’t really had many issues with durability either. I also rank Granger higher, but if you want a point guard I can see taking Curry over him, especially considering the risks he presents as well concerning his health. But I just can’t pull the trigger on Steph over Curry for the number two point guard, at least not this year.

William’s co-author at Roto Professor, Daniel:

Stephen Curry is undoubtedly the biggest up-and-comer in the NBA when it comes to fantasy production. His numbers as a rookie were good for any point guard; they were great for a rookie. That said, let’s not go overboard on the guy. You don’t get extra points for drafting the hot up-and-comer. Fantasy basketball remains a science based on numbers. With the numbers in mind, owners should only be focused on how a player can help them for the coming season. That’s it. It doesn’t matter what team your players play on, how many games they win, or how old they are. Things change slightly if you’re in a keeper league, but not enough to adopt an entirely new draft strategy. Obviously, I don’t agree with the high average draft position Curry has seen thus far. Especially when you look at some of the guys who are being taken after him.

Deron Williams
No one can convince me that Stephen Curry should be averaging a higher draft position than Deron Williams. Curry will easily win the 3-pointers made category, but I think that’s the only place you see a clear advantage for him. Williams will have significantly more assists/game than Curry. The departure of Carlos Boozer will put pressure on Williams to score more points, which he is certainly capable of doing.

Danny Granger
Another unexplainable pick here. Curry has the advantage as far as assists go, but that’s about the only place I see him clearly winning out. Granger is the only top 10 player that could have more success in 3-pointers made than Curry. I’d be my house that Granger scores significantly more points, and he’s better physically equipped to help out on the boards than Curry.

Dwight Howard
Of those being passed up for Curry, Dwight Howard might be the hardest to compare to the Golden State guard. The differences in statistics are obvious due to their positions and styles of play. The issue here is quality at position. There are a number of guards on the rise in the NBA right now. Sure, Curry is among the cream of the crop, but he is not in the very top echelon for his position. It’s a completely different story for Howard. The lack of dominant centers has been covered ad nauseum. On top of that, Howard is easily the most valuable fantasy option at his position. Positional scarcity shouldn’t always be used to compare different players, but I think a first round pick should give you a clear advantage at a specific position.

Pau Gasol/Amar’e Stoudemire/David Lee
This is where things start to get a little muddled. One owner might apply the same logic as was just discussed in relation to Dwight Howard. The only difference is that none of these guys will put up quite as gaudy numbers as Howard. This would be where one would have to look at what kind of team you are trying to build. If you’re looking to be competitive in all categories Curry is the answer. On the other hand, if you want a dominant center you may not get the chance again.

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Fantasy Basketball Preview: Golden State Warriors

Nels — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 03:23:21 +0000

You probably already know, but Golden State set a record this summer. The Warriors were sold for $450 million dollars. And while the amount of the deal was in every headline, I think what’s more important to Warriors fans (and to fantasy owners) is that the new owners seem to actually care about the Warriors. Joe Lacob has been a season ticket holder and has already stated that he wants to make the Warriors into a winning team. I’m sure that Warriors fans feel like a grizzly bear who just discovered a tent full of bacon. Covered in honey.

Now, if the Clippers could just find someone like that to buy them the NBA would probably start giving away unicorns in addition to having players read to kids.

The Warriors haven’t turned themselves into contenders over night – or over two nights – like some teams did, but they hopefully made Bay Area hoops heads happy simply by getting David Lee. A lot of players on the fantasy basketball scene will name check David Lee like it’s going to get them into a club, but the reality is, he’s still one of the more anonymous players in the league. I bet Warriors fans are already tired of explaining to their casual basketball fan friends who this double-double machine is. Lucky for them, and Lee too, I suppose, baseball season will be over before the NBA seasons starts, and the Warriors look at least as promising as the 49ers. Let me show you why using a depth chart I made.

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Monta Ellis, Charlie Bell
SF: Reggie Williams, Dorell Wright, Devean George
PF: David Lee, Brandan Wright, Vladimir Radmanovic
C: Anthony Tolliver, Andris Biedrins, Dan Gadzuric, Chris Hunter

The question marks abound. Can Curry Monster and Monta play together and both be fantasy studs? Is David Lee too tall to be a Power Forward on this team? Will he actually play Center? Can Anthony Tolliver continue his basically unfathomable run of double-digit scoring?

If the same players were occupying equivalent spots on different teams, the chances that those questions can be answered in the affirmative drops dramatically. But this is the Golden Ticket we’re talking about. This is where every contract year player in the league should want to play. This is the land of Nellieball and 100 (!) possessions per game. (For comparison’s sake – the D’Antoni Knicks only had 94, while the formerly D’Antoni Suns had 95. That’s a lot of extra chances for buckets, rebounds, steals, and blocks)

All five of the Warriors starters will be what we in the industry call “fantasy relevant.” With Curry, Monta, and R-Dub tossing up threes and Lee and Tolliver manning the boards, there’s actually a good chance that they all end up close to where they were last year. How close? Let me tell you using these numbers of rounds that I stole from MMA Ring Girls.

There was a time when I said that Stephen Curry would be a first round pick. That was before another potential first rounder came to the promised land. In case I’m being too cryptic, Lee was #7 and Curry was #9 on the Player Rater last year. Still, Curry has talent and he has a fantasy-friendly system. Round 2.

David Lee could have been a first rounder on another team, and with the aforementioned system, he still could be, but solving the unknown in the equation with the constants we have now gives us nothing better than Round 2.

Curry and Lee’s slightly less productive counter (and spare) parts are not too far back. Let me say it again: 100 possessions per game.

Monta Ellis was #18 last year, playing 41 minutes a game. With those kind of minutes, you’re almost guaranteed to end up at the top of the rankings. If you don’t, you don’t deserve those kinds of minutes. I have him slipping a bit, but keep in mind Curry and Ellis played a lot of minutes together last year according to 82games.com, so even with Lee in there now, he should still be able to get his. Let’s say early Round 3, though I won’t be surprised if people are taking him at the end of the second.

Reggie Williams managed to be a Top 50 player last season by getting himself up (that’s what she said) to #49 on the Player Rater. He only played 24 games, but he showed that he can put the ball in the hole nearly one out of every two times, and that’s good enough to get an undrafted player 32 minutes (that’s not what she said). Since the Warriors traded away pretty much everyone else who could claim to be able to play the Small Forward position, R-Dub is the man now, dog. Let’s go with a nice late 4th rounder.

(And speaking of 4th round, I guess that no MMA events ever go past the 2nd round because there aren’t any pictures of Ring Girls holding numbers higher then 2)

The man I can only guess will be the starting C or PF for the Dubs, Anthony Tolliver, cracked the Top 100 last season by putting together an impressive two-month run to close out the season. Like any good Golden State Warrior, he was bombing from downtown (1.1 threes on the season), but also managed to grab as many as 21 boards in a game (and averaged 7.3). His FG% was only 43%, but his FT% was up at almost 77%. Threes and free throw percentage? Seems like a pretty awesome candidate for a Small Ball Center if I’ve ever seen one. (And I’ve actually seen more than I probably should have) In 8 games in April, he was up to 46.9% from the field. I’m only giving you these facts since I did not know them myself. (And I actually know more than I probably should) So, I’m going to say that even with an actual basketball player at the other big position, Tolliver improves enough to go from early 9th round to somewhere in the 7th.

And finally, Mr. Biedrins. Perhaps the only other player outside of the starting 5 who will play enough to matter. Plus, he’s tall. And you can’t teach height. And evidently you can’t teach guys with height to shoot free throws. Nevertheless, this semi-injury prone 7-footer was technically a “draftable” player last year and he can certainly sit under the hoop and absorb rebounds. Big Ballers can pick him up as a last round insurance policy.

In summary, the official GMTR Guidance:
Stephen Curry – 2nd round
David Lee – 2nd round
Monta Ellis – 3rd round
Reggie Williams – Late 4th round
Anthony Tolliver – 7th round
Andris Biedrins – Last round

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Day 166 of 170: Two Bad Teams, Two Good Lines

Nels — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 14:16:54 +0000

It has had to have happened before where two players tied for Line of the Night, but even so, it’s a fairly novel occurrence. Expect no less, though, when the Golden State Warriors are playing.

Line of the Night: Unfortunately for Stephen Curry (1.23), the Clippers were able to pull out the win thanks to Baron Davis‘ equally fantasy friendly performance. Davis had 21 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks, while shooting 8-11 from the floor and 5-6 from the line, and turnovering the ball 0 times. Yes, I just decided that instead of turning the ball over, players should now just turnover as a verb. Of course, turnovering the ball is not any more concise, but since you don’t actually have to have the ball in order to turnover, I think we can just shorten it to ‘turnovering’ thus saving 7 letters when typing and 2 syllables when speaking. I’m just trying to help you deal with the Age of The Information Overload.

Honorable Mentions: Stephen Curry, for his failure to secure the win for his team while competing against the team with the other player tied for LotN, gets demoted all the way to an Honorable Mention. Don’t worry, though, for you can rest assured I have him fairly highly rated when it comes to next season’s draft (the first round of which may soon be available in podcast form).* Because of lines like 29 points, 5 threes, 9 rebounds (from a Point Guard!), 4 assists, and 3 steals, Curry is a Point Guard of the Future, while Davis is a Point Guard of the Past.

Future 6th Man of the Year Jamal Crawford had 28 points with 5 threes, 2 steals, and a block; Dirk Nowitzki made sure to seal of the Southwest Division Title with 39 points and 7 rebounds; Jason Terry helped out with 25 points and 6 assists; and Jason Kidd got in on the action with another triple-double: 11 points, 10 rebounds, 13 assists.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: DJ Augustin got 40 minutes of burn because Raymond Felton sat due to flu-like symptoms, which to me kind of sounds like NBA-speak for “We’ve got the 7th seed all locked up and we’re playing a team with a 26-54 record.” Augustin has been playing a little better over the last few games, and if Felton is still feeling woozy on Monday when the Bobcats play New Jersey… he might see another 13 and 9…

The Biggest Loser: There are probably some owners who were helped by the perennially underrated Nene this season, and while he sites at #32 on the GMTR Player Rater, he picked a helluva time to crap out on anyone who might be still fighting for a place on the podium. The one-named man didn’t do much to help his team when they needed him (Carmelo Anthony was ejected last night, and the Nuggets ended up losing by 19). Nene was apparently just standing around for most of his 32 minutes managing to make 1 of 6 shots and 1 of 2 free throws for 3 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 turnovers. Of course, the irony is, they were playing to try to move into 2nd place in the West against the team they’d likely face if they did end up with the 2 seed, the San Antonio Spurs. Of course, much like the Nuggets, I’d much rather play the Spurs than the Thunder right now. As a fan, though, I’d much rather watch a Nuggets/Thunder first round matchup, so to Nene I say, Thank you!

All Eyez On Me: There is no game more important today than the Bulls @ Raptors. No, I don’t care that Orlando is playing Cleveland, and Portland is playing the Lakers. I’ll watch those games since they are on broadcast TV, but I’ll be making a special trip to a bar to watch the Bulls game on cable (or satellite, whatever they have at bars).

The Golden Ticket: The Stephen Curry Express rolls into dusty Oklahoma City today (even though they’re playing in Oakland). OKC is still trying to hang on the #6 spot and maybe even move up to #5 (where they’d play Utah in what could be the best first round match-up since the Bulls and Celtics last year and Dallas v. GSW before that). All that is to say that the Durantula will be taking full advantage of his Golden Ticket and hopefully not taking a Golden Shower. Admit it. You waited all season for someone to make that joke on here.

The B-side of the Fast Paced Teams cassette is Miami @ NYC. Can D-Wade add another LotN to his collection? If he can, he’ll take a 2 game lead for possession of 2nd place in the LotN contest that runs concurrent to the actual accumulation of fantasy basketball statistics. It’s an interesting battle, though, especially today, becauase, as mentioned Kevin Durant is also playing with the Golden State Advantage, and Stephen Curry is, as ever, a threat to add the Line to his collection. Both of those two need it to pull even with Wade. Who’s cuisine will reign (second to) supreme?

Make Up Tiny Dancers: I subtly avoided posting a tiny dancer on Friday because the Cavs had the LotN with Mo Williams, and LeBron has already pretty much exhausted the Cavalier Dancer options… So, here’s a quick make up from the Clippers Spirit Dance Team in honor of Baron Davis:

Asterisk: Yes, I said podcast form.
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