Give Me The Rock » Indiana Pacers

Day 41 of 124: Anthony Morose

Nels — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 16:11:24 +0000

Or: Where is John Ringo?

We had a little bit of a conversation going last night on Twitter about which three-point bomber would get the Line of the Night:. Well, despite Anthony Morrow‘s (2.97) 8 threes on 13-20 from the field and 8-8 from the line to end up with 42 points, his lack of peripheral stats means that Erik was right in calling Paul George (4.29) as the winner of the three-point fantasy basketball player rater shootout. George ended up with 30 points (7 threes, 11-19 from the field, 1-1 free throws), 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and the stat that gave him the highest WARP score we’ve seen so far this year: 5 steals. George is the only player to go over 4 on the WARP scale.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Durant (2.91) probably would have been first on any other night with his 36 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks, but that just looks downright ordinary compared to the two guys above… Joining Durant was teammate James Harden (2.15) who scored 24 points (4 threes, 8-13 from the field, 4-4 from the line), with 2 steals to help OKC beat Memphis in spite of Marc Gasol (1.94)’s best efforts. Gasol’s best efforts look something like: 24 points (9-12 from the field, 6-6 from the line), 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

Despite shooting 3-8 from the floor, Ricky Rubio (2.15) made the Player Rater blush with 10 points (2 threes), 10 assists, and beating out Paul George with his 6 steals.

Paul Pierce (1.85) continues to deliver for fantasy owners, putting up another 30 points (4 threes), 7 rebounds, and 5 assists. Behind Kevin Durant, he might be the best Small Ball SF out there.

Anderson Varejao (1.57) continued a run of strong games with 12 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 steals.

And Good On You to the 60% of people who held on to Brandon Knight (1.55) (despite our best efforts to convince everyone to drop him). Knight scored a season-high 26 points (3 threes), along with 7 assists and 3 rebounds. Apparently Yahoo had already thought he would be out of the league already and replaced him with a Piston logo…

Finally, Kevin Love (1.51) may not be able to get a double-double in every game this season (he’s had 2 games of single digit rebounds) but that doesn’t mean he’s going to stop putting them up: 20 points (10-10 from the line!), 10 rebounds, and 5 assists.

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: I’m going to have to keep driving this Apology Train until it runs off a cliff. We’ve been telling people for a while that Amir Johnson (2.02) was dunzo… so of course he comes back with 18 points (8-13 from the field), 13 rebounds, and 3 blocks (42% owned). Because that 42% ownership shows that a bunch of people already let him go, you now have the choice of whether or not to pick him back up. After the previous 9 games, I’m going to give him another chance to soar or flop. If you’re in a deeper or more competitive league, you probably don’t have that luxury, so I’m going to stick with what I said and say that it’s better to leave him be.

Pick Up Lines: Someone you should not agonize over is Nikola Pekovic (1.41). Somehow he’s only owned in 6% of leagues, but he’s already been picked up in all of mine… I knew it would happen if he showed any sign of repeating what he’d done the game before… but he did even better, going for 27 points (11-14 from the field), and 11 rebounds, so even though he violates the 70% shooting rule, he is a MUST ADD at this point, so stop reading and go get him already (or at least see if he’s still available – and you’re still reading this, what are you doing?)

Vince Carter (1.35) score 14 points on 6-10 from the field, with 5 assists, and 2 steals. He is 49% owned, and after his four most recent games, that number will probably edge over 50%… I have to admit, he’s starting to look a like a poor man’s vintage Vince Carter.

From once and former to current Raptors: Leandro Barbosa (1.19) might be back….? After missing a game, it seems like maybe he just needed to work his way back into thing before getting back to scoring 19 points, and adding the little bonus defense numbers with 3 steals, and 2 blocks (29% owned).

And speaking of Raptors who missed a game: Linas Kleiza (0.98) came back after missing one to score 15 points (3 threes, 6-8 from the field) (7% owned).
Patrick Patterson (0.80) 12 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks (2% owned)
Alonzo Gee (0.80) 20 points (3 threes), 5 rebounds (5% owned)

Biggest Loser: O.J. Mayo (-0.74) didn’t have all that bad of night with 13 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists if you’re in a points league where missed shots don’t count. His efficiency was terrible with 5-16 from the field and 3-7 from the line. Rajon Rondo (-0.64) didn’t fare much better, again, putting up a decent line for points league teams: 7 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, but he also turned it over 5 times while going 3-8 from the field and 1-4 from the line.

In The Bonus: FakeTeams does a midseason fantasy basketball mock draft.

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Day 98 of 170: Roy Hibbert is Rejuvenated

Patrick — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 13:37:59 +0000

Line of the Night: This is one of what will be many appearances for Blake Griffin (1.96) as the top fantasy player of the night. The Bucks were visiting the Clippers, so we got a taste of what happens when Ersan Ilyasova attempts to guard Griffin: 32 points on 13-20 shooting, with 11 rebounds, and 6 assists. The only weak part of Griffin’s fantasy game at the moment is that he’s shooting 62% from the line (and taking a lot of free throws).

Honorable Mentions: Mike Conley (1.95) scored 26 points adding 11 assists as the Grizzlies took care of business against Orlando. It’s his second double-double point/assist performance in a row as coach Lionel Hollins has told him to be more aggressive out on the court (Mike Conley is super coachable apparently). Dwight Howard (0.83) had a 25 and 14 for the Magic, but also turned the ball over 7 times.

On a night where Dwyane Wade (1.83) pulled a bunch of ridiculous highlight-type plays out of his ass, he also brought it home for fantasy owners with 34 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals. Rick Ross approves…

Jason Kidd (1.77) scored 11 points, with 9 rebounds, and 11 assists against the Wizards to almost triple-double yet again. His running mate Dirk Nowitzki (1.31) scored 24 points on 7-11 shooting. The Wizards’ best fantasy performance came from a surprise player, but more on that below.

Finally, like any good movie about high school, Carmelo Anthony (1.63) played the hot girl, dropping 37 points (with 9 boards) on the Nets just to give them a taste of what they’ll never have. But of course the Nets had the last laugh, as they beat the Nuggets 115-99. They were led by Anthony Morrow (1.37), with 18 points and 4 threes, and Travis Outlaw, who we’ll get to below.

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: The Wizards had a nice game from John Wall last night, but strictly fantasy speaking, Yi Jianlian (1.51), with his 14 points, 11 rebounds and 4 steals was their best performance. Yi is only owned his 4% of leagues at the moment because A) he’s averaging 17 minutes, 6.2 points and 3.6 rebounds a game so far this season and, B) last night was his first double-double of the season.

The Wizards front line pretty clearly consists of Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee with Trevor Booker coming off the bench (and Yi a distant 4th option), so leave him on waivers unless all three of those guys all tragically lose their arms in a wood chipping accident. His 28 minutes last night came because McGee is still working his way back from the flu.

Pick Up Lines: Travis Outlaw (1.22) had his once a month good performance last night. It came against Melo and the Nuggets. He scored 21 points and was 3-7 from three. He’s too inconsistent to worry about unless you’re in a deep league.

Randy Foye (0.82) continues to do what he do with Eric Gordon out of the lineup. And that’s take shots (he was 6-13 from the field) but also rack up some decent counting stats, like 20 points, 5 assists, 3 steals. As we said in the podcast, it’s now or never if you want grab Foye.

Who knew that the solution to Miami’s rebounding problem was actually Mike Miller (0.81)? Miller had his third double-digit rebounding game in the past two weeks and finished with 10 points and 11 rebounds against the Cavs. His three point shot also seems to be falling again (he’s 4 for 7 from three over Miami’s past 2 games) and he’s been getting minutes even with Wade and Bosh back in the lineup. Miller is a player who is primed for a strong finish to the season and you should try to hop on that bandwagon if you still can.

Frank Vogel Deserves a Valentine’s Day Card from Roy Hibbert Owners: We got our first look at the Frank Vogel coached Indiana Pacers and it’s great news for Roy Hibbert (0.60) owners. Grated the game was against the Toronto Raptors (losers of 11 straight going into the game), but Hibbert looked better and had more energy out there than that at anytime in the past month, finishing with 24 and 11 for his first double-double in nearly two weeks. Also encouraging was the fact that Hibbert played 30 minutes for the first time since Jan 7th. All-around great news from this game if you own Hibbert.

As far as the rest of the team goes, Paul George (0.83) is making a case for even more playing time with a 16 point, 2 block performance while playing less than 25 minutes. He’s only owned in 6% of leagues and makes a great pickup in deep leagues. Josh McRoberts started at PF and was meh, while Tyler Hansbrough had a much more impressive 14 and 6 in only 15 minutes on the court. According to people who know things, expect these two guys to split time evenly going forward, which ultimately makes neither of them worth owning.

Biggest Loser: I always judge the biggest loser by how much the lines make me cringe. Today – as far as I can see – is a pretty non-cringe day compared to some others. Zach Randolph (-0.61) had a pretty empty 10 points and 9 rebounds on 4-11 shooting. Not great, but it’s nothing that is going to kill your team for the week.

Andrea Bargnani (-0.48) finished with 12 points and 5 rebounds for the Raptors, while shooting 3-15 from the field.

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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GMTR Podcast #16: Jim O’Brien Needs a JOB (And the NBA All-Stars)

Patrick — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 16:56:43 +0000

Erik and Patrick discuss the firing of Jim O’Brien and what it means (if anything) for the Indiana Pacers fantasy-wise. We also talk about the NBA All-Star starters and what our fantasy All-Star team would look it (hint: it would not involve Yao Ming) and throw out our weekly waiver wire pickups.

Download here (Right-click and Save As)
Or grab the GMTR podcast feed for itunes.

Spoilers To Follow!

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If you can’t listen to the podcast, here are the Waiver Wire Pickups of the Week that we threw out:

Tracy McGrady
Manny Harris
Randy Foye
Chuck Hayes
Carlos Delfino
Ryan Gomes

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Day 95 of 170: Mike Dunleavy Deep Sixes It

Nels — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 16:50:23 +0000

Line of the Night: On a night with 12 games (2×6) and 24 (4×6) teams playing professional basketball games, Mike Dunleavy (2.92) topped all players by making 1×6 threes, and going 12-16 from the field en route to 30 (5×6) points. Dunleavy added 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 block while committing 0 turnovers and going 0-0 from the line to keep his efficiency in tip top shape.

Honorable Mentions: I was fortunate enough to bear witness to Dwight Howard (2.91) scoring 40 points on 14-20 from the field while still losing to the Bulls. Howard also gave his fantasy owners monster numbers in other categories with 15 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks. Andrei Kirilenko (2.56) outplayed Kevin Love as Utah beat Minnesota with 27 points (10-13 from the field), 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 5 steals. That’s not even vintage Kirilenko, that’s better than vintage Kirilenko. D.J. Augustin (2.55) also scored 27 points (4 threes, 9-10 from the line), but did the Point Guard thing with 12 assists, plus 4 steals. LeBron James (2.38) was a one-man team scoring 39 points (15-25 from the field), with 8 rebounds, 9 assists, and 2 blocks to lead a single star Miami team to a one-point victory over Detroit. Joe Johnson (2.15) rode the NY fast paced game to 34 points (6-6 from the line), 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals.Paul Millsap (2.15) brought back the early season Paul Millsap with 30 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 steals. DeMarcus Cousins (2.14) actually had a good shooting game (’bout time!) and ended up with 27 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks.

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Oh for cry pete! Ersan Ilyasova (2.58) was the highest rated player under 50% ownership because of his 25 points (9-10 from the field, 5-5 from the line), 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. If you want to continue writing him off as an inconsistent performer, then we’ll just call this one a fluke because of his 90% shooting from the field.

Pick Up Lines: Tracy McGrady (1.51) had found a groove in Detroit, putting together three nice games in a row, making him a legit pick-up now. Last night he put up 14 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists, and 4 blocks. Bringing back vintage McGrady!

C.J. Miles (1.41) continued to play like a hot pick up with 22 points (4 threes), 7 rebounds, and 2 steals. He’s getting to look like a legit fantasy player with his 32% ownership.

If you want to dig deep, let’s consider Austin Daye (1.13) and his 19 points (3 threes), and 9 rebounds, or Jodie Meeks (1.03) with 16 points (5 threes).

Biggest Loser: Just when Ron Artest (-0.98) seemed like someone worth owning, he goes for 4 points (1-4 from the field), 0 rebounds, 0 assists.

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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Fantasy Owners: Be Afraid of Jim O’Brien. Be Very Afraid

Patrick — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 18:35:57 +0000

Drastic changes to the rotation. Check. Playing guys out of position. Check. Mid-season adjustments to mix things up. Check. It has all the look of a coach desperately trying to keep his job. And Roy Hibbert owners are the ones feeling the pain.

Is this man ruining your life?

Indiana Pacers coach Jim O’Brien recently decided that the Pacers best chance of winning is to play small ball. This past Sunday against the Knicks, O’Brien went with a new starting lineup that featured Darren Collison, Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger and Jeff Foster. TJ Ford got the most run off the bench (25 minutes) while Roy Hibbert got less minutes (16) than James Posey (19).

The most worrying moment for Hibbert owners (and the move that send you into nuclear meltdown if you’re a Pacers fan) occurred when Foster fouled out of the game with three and a half minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Instead of bringing in Hibbert to guard Amar’e Stoudemire, O’Brien went with the 6-8 Posey at center. Posey was promptly scored on three times in three minutes by Stoudemire, but the damage was done. Not only did the Pacers lose the game, but O’Brien clearly demonstrated how little he trusts Hibbert right now.

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The question of whether the Pacers are better off as a small ball team is valid. The team has lost 11 of their past 16 games. Hibbert has been in a funk the past couple of weeks and the team is getting little production from the power forward trio of McRoberts, Hansbrough and Posey (sounds like the worst country music act of all time). But is the team better off with Danny Granger playing power forward?

Indy Cornrows has a good analysis of the Pacers’ power forward position (jump to the second half of the post) that looks at the offensive and defensive ratings for the five guys who have played the position this season (Foster, Granger, Hansbrough, McRoberts, and Posey). You can probably guess what the results show: the Pacers don’t really have any good options at the position.

Out of all the mediocre to bad options, McRoberts is probably the best of the bunch, with a +3 differential at the position. Technically, Granger has been ever so slightly better than McRoberts at PF, but Granger doesn’t particularly like playing power forward and sacrifices a lot on the court playing out of position. So by playing small, the Pacers get a less effective Granger to get more minutes for Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy and Paul George. It ends up being a little bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic; the Pacers are going down no matter what lineup they use because they don’t have the personnel. In that way, maybe the hate should be directed at Larry Bird rather than Jim O’Brien, who is simply making shit sandwiches in the most creative ways that he can think of.

The Pacers don’t play again until Friday, so we will have to wait and see if they continue to break out the small lineup. O’Brien’s recent comments suggest that he is committed to small ball for the long haul. If that’s true, Roy Hibbert’s fantasy value is about to come crashing down, while Rush, Dunleavy and even Paul George could see increased value. Although with George, 20 year old rookies don’t typically make the most consistent players for fantasy purposes, even when they are getting minutes.

The alternative scenario sees the Pacers’ small ball lineup crash and burn and O’Brien quickly has to return to a more traditional lineup. Hibbert owners have to decide which is the more likely scenario and move accordingly: either sell Hibbert now at a discount or hold him and hope he makes his way back into the rotation and can find his groove again. I personally think the latter will happen and Hibbert will be starting again, but it could be a long rough patch ahead for those of you counting on Hibbert in fantasy leagues.

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Day 24 of 170: You’re Either In, Or You’re Out

Nels — Fri, 19 Nov 2010 14:47:39 +0000

Line of the Night: Danny Granger (2.58) just kind of fill up the box score to get this one. It helped that the Pacers were playing the Clippers, so I guess if the Pacers are the league’s punching bag, that makes the Clippers the Pacers punching bag. Granger wasn’t “remarkable” per se in any category, but ended up with 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 threes, 2 steals, 2 blocks.

Honorable Mentions: Jameer Nelson (1.63) had 15 points and 12 assists, shooting 6-8 from the field as Orlando beat up on Phoenix. Arron Afflalo (1.61) is now up to 55% ownership, but seriously, if he’s still somehow available in one of your leagues grab him. Last night he went for 16 points (4 threes) and 11 rebounds.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Brandon Rush (2.02) had 14 points, 5 rebounds, 4 threes, 2 steals, and setting him apart: 5 blocks. Given that he’s a 6-6 GF I doubt he’s going to come up with that many blocks with anything resembling consistency, so I’d say wait and see. He did just start playing for the Pacers 9 days ago, and he started yesterday, so maybe he’s just working his way into the lineup.

Pickup Lines: Okay, I know it’s not the fault of anyone reading GMTR, but Wesley Matthews (1.13) still has only 35% ownership. Last night he had 20 points, 10 rebounds. 3 threes, and 2 blocks. Greg Oden’s surgery won’t have an impact on Matthews, but Brandon Roy is out for at least one more game, and clearly, when Roy is out, Matthews is in.

And if you thought that Goran Dragic (-1.12) was going to be In since Steve Nash was Out, well, turns out Nash’s “goran” injury wasn’t enough for Goran to make a name for himself. He will continue to be known as: That guy that Derrick Rose dunked on when Stacy King went nuts.

The Biggest Loser: I’m tempted to go with Gary Forbes (-1.38) because, it’s like: Dude, you had a chance to take over JR Smith’s position on the Nuggets and you pretty much blew that. But since no one has ever heard of Gary Forbes, I have to go with Jason Richardson (-0.87) who is having a good fantasy season so far, but came up with only 7 points on 3-7 shooting (missing both free throws), with 1 rebound, 1 steal, and 2 turnovers.

On Tap: Top of the Pops goes to Oklahoma City @ Boston. It’s going to be a good game, but with Boston’s defense, it’s probably not going to be awesome for fantasy owners (too bad for me with Kevin Durant on 2 of my teams).

I’m personally looking forward to the Bulls 3rd game in their Circus Trip. They’re playing Dallas and if they win, they’ll have the same record as Dallas. I’m not sure that’s significant, but it’s true.

The news of Tony Parker’s impending divorce and the implications thereof haven’t had an effect on him after one day. He played well against the Bulls and the Spurs won to move to 9-1. But now they’re going to go into Utah and face the Jazz’s Not On The Ballot All Star Paul Millsap.

The Golden Rule: Make sure you get all your Warriors and all your Knicks in all your lineups because it’s happening again: The Knicks are playing the Warriors! I might even put David Lee in the lineup because there’s going to more possessions than the Exorcist franchise and the injured may just rise from the bench and run the court.

In The Bonus: LeBronception | JR Smith Advice

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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Day 15 of 170: Paul Millsap Versus The World

Nels — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 15:01:34 +0000

or: Following The Hornets Blueprint

Line of the Night: Paul Millsap (1.42) showed once again that dominating the Heat inside will lead to success. That’s in real basketball, but it has proven to translate well to fantasy basketball as well. Millsap played 43 minutes in the Jazz’s overtime win over the Heat, scoring a career high 46 points on 19-28 (including 3 threes – yeah, what?), 9 rebounds, 1 block and 1 steal with only 1 turnover. I’m not sure how you can take 28 shots and only turn the ball over once, but fantasy raters (and owners) love stuff like that.

The Dean’s List: LeBron (1.18) had a triple-double with 20, 11, and 14. He seems to be doing pretty much what people were predicting he would. Kevin Love (1.02) had 23 points and 24 boards.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Mike Dunleavy (1.28) let it be known that he does in fact still play in the NBA. This was a rare night, though, as Indiana shot 64% from the field as a team and torched the Nuggets for 144 points. I wouldn’t count on 31 points and 6 threes from Dunzo more than about once a month.

Pickup Lines: Arron Afflalo (0.95) is putting up some nice numbers and flying just under the radar at 49% ownership in Yahoo leagues. If line of 17 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals doesn’t get you to consider taking him home… well, maybe he’ll put on some makeup and try a little harder. We’re not talking lipstick on a pig here.

Austin Daye is still starting for the Pistons, and finally had a decent game. I’d wait for another one before I consider dropping anyone for him though. He’s certainly proven underwhelming so far.

Tyler Hansbrough (0.67) had 20 points and 9 boards with 1 block, but like Daye, I’m not picking him up until he’s played like that for a few games. Especially since that Pacers game was against the Nuggets who had just played the Bulls the night before. (Fun fact, though, this is the first time we’ve ever tagged Tyler Hansbrough in a post on GMTR)

The Biggest Loser: Chris Kaman is like the Grinch, except instead of stealing Christmas presents, he takes Games Played away from owners in fantasy leagues with Max Games Limits. Kaman has played one good game this season, and this was not it: 2 points on 1-3 from the floor, with 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 3 turnovers. Maybe he should watch some game footage of Paul Millsap to remember what it’s like to be someone who scores and rebounds.

On Tap: There’s always plenty of games on Wednesdays, but I think you’ll probably notice a trend as the season goes on. There’s not a lot of interesting matchups. I believe the NBA has some sort of contractual obligations to show the good games on Thursday and Friday nights. That’s how we end up with Charlotte at Toronto tonight. They have to play each other some time, right?

Utah is going into a SEGABABA (I’m just gonna keep saying it) against Orlando. After beating Miami in OT, it’ll be interesting to see if there’s anything left in the tank. If I were in a league with daily lineup changes, my money would be on: No.

And let us not forget that the Division Leading (!) Cleveland Cavaliers are playing against an opponent from arguably as weak a division in the New Jersey Nets tonight. Another chance for the Cavs to solidify their spot at the top of the Central Division.

The Golden Rule: The explosion of fantasy goodness that come but twice a year happens tonight! The Warriors of Golden State will be in Madison Square Garden to run suicides against the Knicks. I’m pretty sure both teams would be happy to settle things with a three-point contest. And actually, a team three-point contest would be kind of cool.

In The Bonus: Buy Low Candidates | No, seriously, Buy Low

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Day 4 of 170: The Lone Granger Rides Again

Nels — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 14:34:24 +0000

(starring Roy Hibbert as Tonto)

Line of the Night: Danny Granger (0.92) looked like he might be riding a stallion by the name of Silver last night, taking on the wild mountain Bobcats and scoring 33 points on 6 threes and 52% from the field. He added 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks to win the favor of the Basketball Monster.

Granger’s sidekick Roy Hibbert (0.54) was #9 on the night with 13 and 8 and a surprise 6 assists. He also had 4 big blocks, and threw the Big Ball teams for a loop with his 37.5% FG shooting and 87.5% FT shooting.

The Dean’s List: Andre Iguodala (0.80) had 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 10 assists with 2 steals and a block. The 76ers showcased him for 42 minutes… easy way to bump his stats and subsequently his trade value. (Are there still trade rumors going around about Iguodala?)

OJ Mayo (0.64) shot only 35% from the field, but made up for it by not shooting any free throws. Yep, I just wrote that. To his credit on the reals, Mayo did make 4 threes, ending up with 24 points, 3 steals and a block.

Pau Gasol (0.63) was 2 rebounds and 1 assist short of a triple-double with 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists, adding 1 steal and 2 blocks. Al Horford (0.62) put up a double-double with 20 and 12 shooting 81.8% from the field. Yeah, that’ll help your Big Ball cats.

Ben Gordon Sighting: One of the lesser-talked-of storylines of the season is whether Ben Gordon (0.58) can get back to being a mediocre fantasy player. Well, his line of 32 points (2 threes) and 4 rebounds with 68% from the field and 89% from the line certainly make a case for the “He Can” side of that battle.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: If you haven’t listened to this week’s podcast, then you haven’t heard about Dorrell Wright (0.76) who was #3 on the night. Wright is a member of the new Golden Rule, playing 38 minutes for the Warriors, scoring 24 points on 6 threes (take that Granger!), grabbing 8 rebounds, and shooting 69% from the field (to just barely qualify for WWLotN*). He’s only owned in 50% of leagues, so he (once again) just barely qualifies for WWLotN.**

If Wright is already gone, then take a short look at Francisco Garcia (0.55). I say short look because it shouldn’t take long to decide to pick him up. If you’re not in one of Erik’s leagues, then he’s probably still available, but if he puts up another game like 18 points, 4 threes, 2 steals, and a block the likelyhood that he’ll still be eligible for WWLotN drops like a penny from a tall building.

The Biggest Loser: This is a difficult choice, since JJ HicksonVince Carter (-0.68), Danilo Gallinari (-0.69), and Rashard Lewis (-0.87) all had really terrible games. Ramon Sessions (-0.99) was the closest to -1 of anyone, but he’s only owned in 34% of leagues, so the impact was much less than those other guys who are all above 81%. Since Vince and Rashard got blown out and ended up playing very limited minutes, I’ll let them pass (at least from a fantasy basketball perspective – they need to step up a lot if they hope to beat Miami in the future). And despite Hickson have a slightly worse overall rating, I’m going with Gallinari because his ownership percent is a lot higher and I think fantasy owners were expecting a lot more from him going into the season.

Danilo’s line from last night was: 0-6 from the field and 2-2 from the line for 2 points to go with 3 rebounds and an assist. We talk about the other Knicks players who benefit from Gallinari’s weak play on this week’s podcast. Listen up!

On Tap with Budweiser: I’m looking forward to the home opener for the Bulls tonight since my wife surprised me with tickets for my birthday (this Wednesday, happy birthday to me!). Budweiser is giving away hats, so I’m going to have get there real early. Free stuff is awesome. Just like all the fantasy advice on this blog!

Not too many other “marquee” match-ups tonight so the best thing we got going is…

The Golden Rule: The Knicks play host to Portland tonight, so let’s see how Danilo Gallinari does, and I’m super psyched about the young Nicholas Batum running it up and down the court.

* WWLotN players must shoot less than 70% from the field or else we categorize them as a Fluke rather than a player you actually want to pick up.

** WWLotN candidates must be owned in 50% or less of leagues so that the majority of fantasy owners have a chance to actually make use of the advice.

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Ariza, Murphy, Collison Trade: Fantasy Impact

Erik — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 06:07:59 +0000

Five players have recently been traded in a four-team deal. While this transaction is not chock-full of marquee names, it does send ripples across this little pond we all know as “Fantasy Basketball.”

Here’s a quick look at who went where:

Trevor Ariza (SF), Houston –> New Orleans

Darren Collison (PG) and James Posey (SF), New Orleans –> Indiana

Troy Murphy (PF), Indiana –> New Jersey

Courtney Lee (G/F), New Jersey –> Houston

Houston Rockets – They get Courtney Lee, who as far as the stat sheets are concerned, is a current downgrade from what they had going with Ariza. IF Yao Ming recovers fully, and that is a big “IF,” they will want to re-sign him for good. They (Houston) realized that Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry fetched a pretty penny this off-season and wanted to shed some cash off their books. While Lee was known as a reasonably solid defender back in WKU, he still has to break out in the NBA. Nonetheless, his potential is there and his cheaper contract and accompanying trade exemption was something the Rockets did not want to pass up. We know he can play at the three, but whether or not Coach Rick Adelman will utilize him as the starting small forward or as a back-up to Kevin Martin (SG), will determine his fantasy value. If he will not start, expect Shane Battier to reprise his role as the team’s primary defender on the wings. I’ll be slightly optimistic on this one and count more on Lee’s potential (and Battier’s age) and expect him to at least be penciled in as a starter.

UPDATE: It has been announced (late August 12, 2010) that Shane Battier will be starting at SF. That means that Lee will likely be looked upon to be the team’s primary all-around guy off the bench a.k.a. Sixth Man. This hurts Lee’s fantasy value while slightly improves what remains of Battier’s.

Trade Grade: C+

New Orleans Hornets – For them, this just the first step in “Chris Paul courtship” process. They shed James Posey’s bloated deal and trade away Paul’s only true competition as the team’s Almighty Point Guard in Collison. They’re trying to send their star a message that “We are committed to build a good team around you! So please stay… pretty please?” But isn’t this just a remixed version of a Cleveland-inspired song and dance that was in vouge just a couple of years ago? If Paul indeed granted the team a clean slate to fulfill its promises, this is a start. As they say, “it takes two to tango,” Chris Paul better keep himself healthy this 2010 (at least as best as he can), if he wants his value and corresponding demand to stay at its current levels. With Darren Collison, or Chris-Paul-lite, gone; it would be a huge kick in the nuts for the Hornets if Paul decides to do a “The Decision v.3.1 Beta” a couple of years down the road.

Trevor Ariza is a nice addition to the team. He will likely start ahead of Peja Stojakovic and his ailing back. This definitely downgrades what little fantasy value Peja has left, as he’s now truly just a three-point shooting specialist off the bench. At his age and health history, it comes as no surprise that his role is now a little more Kyle Korver and less Danilo Gallinari. I originally pegged Ariza as a sixth to seventh round fantasy draft target while he was still a Rocket. Well if you ascribe to the thinking that players benefit from playing alongside great, passing point guards; then we should see some improvement in Ariza’s numbers in 2010. I see him now as pick-worthy somewhere between the fifth and sixth rounds, which should roughly translate into a 10-spot rank bump. That’s already generous, considering I was already high on his fantasy prospects as a Rocket. With Paul and David West commanding most of the scoring responsibilities, I foresee Trev being able to continue being a solid counting stat contributor while CP3′s passing improves his FG%. His FT% will still leave a lot to be desired, but I don’t see him heading to the line that often anyway, so it (ideally) shouldn’t hurt your fantasy team’s overall average (too much).

Trade Grade: A- (if they ended up securing Paul in the long term); C+ (if they lose Paul anyway)

New Jersey Nets - Admittedly, I was a bit bewildered and befuddled at their move, to say the least. I did not see this one coming. Why take Murphy, a power forward, when they just drafted Derrick Favors (third overall and also a PF)? Are they trying to piss off recently signed Sean May, whose shoes will hardly taste the hardwood after this deal? Why let go of Courtney Lee, who showed brief flashes of improvement last season?

It took awhile and a cup of coffee later, but I see how this move makes sense for the Nets. Anthony Morrow will likely step in as a starter in Lee’s stead. Sleeper Alert! - There, he isn’t one anymore.

Murphy not only improves the team’s front court rotation, but adds even more firepower from downtown. Improved three-point shooting is clearly a dimension Coach Avery Johnson wants to develop. This is apparent by the team’s signings of Morrow, Farmar, and Outlaw this off season. We might see him ask Brook Lopez assert himself more down in the post, to attract double teams, and leave a lot of teammates free to take open threes. Call it Orlando-esque all you want, but I think it’s a sound game plan given the pieces the team currently has. In a nutshell, we should see Murphy do more of pretty much the same old thing he was doing in Indiana, grab rebounds and lob threes. I see his boards taking a slight hit, but he should average a hair below a double-double still. Once again, as it has been for many seasons now, the issue with Troy is his ability stay healthy.

This deal also means that second-year player, Terrence Williams, will now ever so slightly (whether you want him to or not) creep into your draft radar. Kind of like crack whore who’s so blasted, that she’s wandered into your home by mistake. Not in a bad way, but in a “it’s something you did not expect” kind of way. Unless of course that would be your kind of thing, but that’s on a whole other boat of wierd that’s probably already sailed. Anyway, T-Will should now be on your late-round radars, at least in 14-man leagues or deeper. For 12-man, he should at least be on your watch lists.

Trade Grade: B to B+ (depending on how many games Troy ends up playing for the Nets)

Indiana Pacers - They, and Darren Collison fantasy fans, are the big winners in all of this. The Pacers have long been pining for a point-guard-not-named-Ford. Collison, who showed us all, that he’s a more than serviceable PG, fits that bill to a tee. It was kind of nice to see how well Murphy and Danny Granger worked well together last season, so it was kind of sad to see him go. But alas, Indiana really has should have room for ONE injury prone guy, and it looks like Danny Granger’s got dibs on that slot. So, goodbye Troy… and helloooo Darren!

I would taper expectations for Collison this season. He’s not playing in the same system anymore and is still just a sophomore in the league. He WILL do well, but he may or may not explode/break-out depending on how well he fits in his new team. If he’s got an awesome learning curve, then that’s a bonus. Without any real and serious competition for minutes, he should on our Top 10 PG bubble, if not on the list straight away. Seeing him average a 16 PPG and 7 APG this season, would be sweet. Larry Bird lucked out on this acquisition. Word!

With Troy gone, Roy Hibbert will now be more important to Pacers’ front court as ever. We’re not questioning his defensive zeal (much), just his ability to ONLY hit the ball when going for those blocks – and stay out of early foul trouble. Watch list material or late-round flier categorization will all depend on how much you think he and his game has matured during the Summer.

Trade Grade: A-

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Fantasy Basketball Preview: Indiana Pacers

Patrick — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 15:23:46 +0000

After years of wading around in a sea of mediocrity (or maybe it was just a sea of crap), the Pacers are FINALLY at the point where they can start to turn some of their most onerous contracts in to fresh, young meat. And in fact that is just what they did on August 11th, sending expiring contact and Jersey boy Troy Murphy to the Nets in a four-way trade that netted (get it?) them point guard (and Chris Paul buzz kill) Darren Collison from the Hornets. With T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster also in the last year of their contracts, the Pacers still have a number of moves to make this year.

In fact, the team has already been shopping TJ Ford around to anyone who will pick up the phone. Ford had trouble grasping the finer intricacies of Coach Jim O’Brien’s offense for two straight years, so he’s on the out with the team. They almost moved him in a deal for Raymond Felton, but it fell through when Michael Jordan got cold feet. They tried to package him as part of the four team deal for Collison, but there were no takers. At this point, if you’re interested in getting Ford for your pick-up team, Larry Bird wants to speak with you.

Even with the Collison trade, the Pacers are still stuck with a lot of dead weight that won’t officially come off the books until 2011:

The Depth Chart, aka the Mike Dunleavy Memorial List

PG Darren Collison, (T.J. Ford – likely traded), A.J. Price
SG Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Lance Stephenson
SF Danny Granger, Paul George, Mike Dunleavy
PF Tyler Hansbrough, Josh McRoberts, Magnum Rolle
C Roy Hibbert, Jeff Foster, Solomon Jones

***

Rule number 49 in my Official Rules to Live Your Life By states that it’s always good to be friendly with your local Russian billionaire; and that advice paid off handsomely for the Pacers. They were able to get a very good and very young point guard AND reduce their payroll this season thanks to the deep pockets of the Nets.

Darren Collison, who was a more than adequate Chris Paul replacement for part of last season, averaged an incredible 18.8 points, 9.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 1 three a game in 37 starts. In his rookie season. 9.1 assists. As a rookie. Got that? He did also average 4.1 turnovers in those starts, but he will learn to take better care of the ball as he matures.

So Collison becomes the starter on the Pacers and immediately gets a HUGE fantasy bump as a result of this trade. Plugging his starting stats into the GMTR player rater and he comes out ranked 20th in 8-cat leagues and 48th in 9-cat leagues. I’m hesitant to think he can keep up that same pace over the course of an entire season with a new set of teammates, but like my boy Matt Buser writes, you’ve got to pull the trigger on Collison in drafts before the likes of Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, right? Isn’t Collison a top 60 player now? Even a worst-case scenario 20%-25% drop in his stats as a starter put his numbers in the 15 point, 7 assist range.

Oh, what to do about Danny Granger? He’s got first-round talent and a fifth-round body. There are only two players in the league who can give you better across-the-board stats on a per game basis than Granger. One is named LeBron and the other is some dude that Nels seems to be fond of. Again on a per game basis, Granger is an easy bet to average 25 points, 5 boards, 2.5 threes, and close to a block a game next season.

Unfortunately, he also missed 20 games last year with a foot injury. The fantasy world in general is pretty down on Granger given his injury history – the easiest way for you to kill your fantasy season is to have your first round pick get injured – but remember that his first three years in the league Granger played in 78, 82, and 80 games. While there probably are certain players who are more susceptible to injuries than the average guy (think Sam Bowie), not every player who gets hurt two years in a row is necessarily injury prone. I think Granger is a great guy to try to buy low on this year at the end of the first or beginning of the second round if people let him drop.

With the perpetually underrated Troy Murphy taking his talents to Newark, the PF spot is opened up at the moment for either Tyler Hansbrough or Josh McRoberts (with 24-year old rookie Magnum Rolle waiting in the wings). Hansbrough is apparently getting treatment this summer for vertigo, which I didn’t know existed out of Alfred Hitchcock moves, and yet sounds like an appropriate analogy for his fantasy value (I’m getting dizzy just thinking about it). Provided he can walk in a straight line come the fall and wins the starting job, Hansbrough could become a decent points/rebounds and not much else type big man. McRoberts makes an even less intriguing play at the position. ‘Meh’ is about all the excitement I can drum up for the Pacers PF spot.

Given the teams’ sudden lack of frontcourt depth, Roy Hibbert picks up a little bit of value and should benefit in the rebounding and touches department. Hibbert had a nice sophomore bump last season, and when he wasn’t fouling out of games, he had the potential to put up a double-double and block 6 shots. You are not going to get value for him in a draft again this year, but he will make a decent starting center in the late-mid rounds.

Brandon Rush and Dahntay Jones will likely split time at SG again this season and work to cancel each other out fantasy-wise. Keep them on the free agent scrap heap unless Granger gets hurt again. Rush can hit the three with good consistency though and makes the slightly better bad option. And like Ford, Mike Dunleavy simply has trade bait written all over him this season. He isn’t worth drafting.

Paul George, Lance Stephenson and Magnum Rolle all have great names (George should really be in an 80’s cover band) but they will all have minimal impact their rookie seasons. George projects to be a Granger replacement down the road and should be able to learn a thing or two from Granger if they are both open to the student/teacher thing.

So, among the players to draft… Here’s your official GMTR Guidance (for a 12 team league):

Danny Granger – End of 1st
Darren Collison – 5th
Roy Hibbert – 7th/8th
Tyler Hansbrough – last round

fbasketballblog takes on the challenge of placing Danny Granger in their top-25 list

More on Darren Collison and his fantasy value

fbasketballblog
Weakside Help
Fantasy Hoopster
NBA Soup
Fantasy Knuckleheads
Fantasy Hype
Fantasy Basketball Breakdown

***

Since Nels did it so well in his Thunder preview, I thought I’d throw out a Pacers’ wallpaper in case you want to get serious with Danny Granger. Bonus points for the tagline, “Saving Indiana Since 2005.”

from http://drivenfranchise.co.cc

If what they’ve done since 2005 is what you call saving Indiana, I really don’t want to be saved.

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