Honorable Mentions: Tony Allen (2.10) has been horrible since coming back from injury in mid-April (I know, because he’s on my roto team and I’m capped with moves for the year, so I haven’t been able to dump him), but last night with a little help from the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense, he set a Grizzlies’ franchise record with 8 steals to go along with 13 points and 8 rebounds. Says Allen about his performance, “I was alert and felt good in the passing lanes.” No kidding.

Wesley Matthews (2.01) continued to burn hot over the last month of the season, scoring 24 points, with 3 threes, 6 rebounds and 4 steals as Portland got blown out by the Spurs. Matthews got 45 minutes in this game because Jamal Crawford sat with knee tendonitis and Nicolas Batum was out again due to his quad injury. Raymond Felton (0.25) made a surprise return after missing 3 games and finished with 13 points and 7 assists. I guess that means he’s good to go for the team’s last game on Thursday, but who knows with this season.

The Spurs were led by the unexpected duo of Stephen Jackson (1.83), who had 12 points, 4 assists and 5 steals, and Tim Duncan (1.53) with 18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks. Duncan saw a team high 26 minutes in the game as Gregg Popovich worked his magic to seemingly make minutes disappear from the game. Duncan and Jackson, I’d watch a buddy cop movie starring those two.

Elton Brand (1.49) had 15 points, 6 rebounds and 4 blocks as the Sixers locked up a playoff spot with a win over the Nets. Andre Iguodala (1.28) finished with a 14, 7 and 9 while getting a team high 41 minutes, but strained his Achilles late in the game. With a playoff spot locked up, Doug Collins said after the game he plans to rest Iguodala and Brand and probably Lou Williams over the team’s final two games. This means we’ll get a heavy dose of Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks, Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen and Thaddeus Young on Wednesday and Thursday, so plan your lineups accordingly.

Ersan Ilyasova (1.42) was huge yet again for the Bucks, finishing with 19 points and 15 rebounds against the Raptors. Brandon Jennings (1.09) added 25 points, 3 threes and 5 assists in the game.

The Wizards handed the Bobcats their 21st straight loss (and kept them on the trajectory to become the worst NBA team of all time). They were led by John Wall (1.01) who finished with 16 points and 14 assists. Nene Hilario (0.75) had 18 and 6 in just 21 minutes and they also got a surprise performance out of Jan Vesely, but more on that below.

Charlotte was “led” by D.J. Augustin (0.48) with the 42nd best fantasy line of the night thanks to 15 points and 6 assists. Augustin had sat out the Bobcats previous four games, and his return pushed Kemba Walker (-0.52) back to the bench for only 14 minutes. The Bobcats can’t even do garbage time right this season.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Jan Vesely (1.64) has been starting for the Wizards for a month and has quietly put together a decent run of competence over the last couple weeks, sporting a two-week WARP of 0.34. Last night in a win over the Bobcats, he had his best game of the season, going 8-8 from the floor and finishing with 16 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals (3% owned). The Wizards still play two more games this year, so those in deeper leagues looking for a boards/steals option to plug into your lineup could do worse than grabbing Vesely.

Pick Up Lines: This is the time of the season where everything we think we know goes out the window. So it’s no surprise that James Johnson (1.56) blew up against the Bucks a couple weeks after getting mysteriously benched. Johnson finished with 22 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks (34% owned). He’s worth a look for the Raptors’ final game on Thursday against the Nets.

Danny Green (1.41) somehow managed to go 4-4 from three and score 18 points in only 15 minutes on the court as the Spurs blew out the Blazers 124-89. He’s been playing well recently (averaging 2.7 threes and 12 points a game over the last two weeks) despite getting his minutes reduced along with the other Spurs’ starters as they rest up for the playoffs. It’s tough to recommend picking up a guy getting 15-20 minutes a game, but somehow Green is making it work. The Spurs also play on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

The Pacers rolling with their B team allowed Leandro Barbosa (1.25) to see 29 minutes off the bench (his highest since he’s been on the team) and Barbosa made the most of the opportunity with 13 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals. With Granger a good bet to sit out on Wednesday, Barbosa should again see good minutes again in that game.

MarShon Brooks (1.07) has quietly returned to his early season form for the Nets. Against the Sixers, Brooks scored 18 points, adding 4 assists and 2 steals in 34 minutes. He’s scored in double-digits in 8 of his last 9 games and is someone to look at if you need to pick up some points on the last day of the season, which is the next time the Nets play.

With Drew Gooden (-0.99) taking a crap all over last night’s game against the Raptors (he finished with 2 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes), the Bucks turned to Ekpe Udoh (0.94) who had one of his strongest games with the team, finishing with 11 points, 5 rebounds and 3 blocks in 30 minutes (10% owned). Unless the team decides to sit Gooden, Udoh will likely go back to seeing less than 20 off the bench for their last two games on Wednesday and Thursday and is a tough guy to recommend because of that.

Marreese Speights (0.55) finished with 17 and 10 for his second straight double-double. Who would have thought in the battle for playing time against Zach Randolph, that Speights would come out on top? Right now, he’s the better fantasy option out of the two.

Tristan Thompson (0.28) had 19 points, 9 boards and 4 blocks for the Cavs. Unfortunately, he also shot 3-10 from the floor and 6-10 from the line, but if you are looking for boards, blocks and some points, the Cavs still have games remaining on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

Biggest Loser: George Hill sat out for the Pacers, which is great news for Darren Collison (-1.32), right? Turns out, not so much. A.J. Price got the start at PG for the Pacers, but Collison still got 31 minutes of run off the bench and all he could manage was 4 points on 1-8 shooting, with 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 6 turnovers. Hill is expected back for the Pacers last game on Wednesday, so Collison should be pushed back to limited minutes off the bench again for that one.

Zach Randolph (-1.13) played all of 19 minutes off the bench for the Grizzlies and finished with 3 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assists on 1-5 from the field. Randolph has one double-double in his past six games, not exactly what was expected from a guy who averaged 20 and 12 last season.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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The reason I was trying to come up with something to distract you is not just because there’s so few games on the schedule, but because there were a lot of nice lines last night, but they feel like they’re all just sort of floating out there, not tethered by gravity, but blasting into the stratosphere of legendary fantasy performances. I’d gladly take just about any of the following if any of my leagues were still active, but I’ve seen so many brilliant lines in the 165 days preceding this one that it just seems kind of ordinary. Perhaps you can convince me that there is something noteworthy from last night in the comments. Or we can just talk about how awesome the playoffs are going to be (especially now that the Bulls clinched first place in the Eastern Conference).

Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night:: I guess it’s fitting that during the NBA’s “Green” week, Willie Green (2.21) (for whom the week was named) should come from out of nowhere to set a franchise record by making his first 12 shots. Then his legs got tired (that’s a quote) and he stopped at 31 points (5 threes, 12-17 from the field) and 4 assists. Thanks for trying to make things interesting Big Willie Style.

Honorable Mentions: LaMarcus Aldridge (2.18) led Portland over the Lakers in what might turn out to be a first round matchup. Aldridge had 24 points (4-4 from the line), 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 blocks. Like I said, an impressive line, no one is disappointed there, it’s just that we’ve seen it so many times before. Rajon Rondo (2.01) seems to be trying to get back to his early season for just in time for the playoffs with 20 points (6-6 from the line), 14 assists, and 6 steals. Carmelo Anthony (1.99) demanded the ball while dribbling en route to his 25 points (5-5 from the line) and 14 rebounds. Zach Randolph (1.88) also had a double-double with 27 points and 15 rebounds and apparently passed the ball at least 4 times leading to 4 assists to go with 4 steals. LeBron James (1.88) led the Heat with a near triple-double: 23 points (9-15 from the field), 7 rebounds, 9 assists, and 2 steals. Brandon Jennings (1.84) scored 31 points (13-21 from the field), but only had 4 assists with his 3 steals. I’m not sure how Trevor Ariza (1.73) managed 21 points when it was Willie Green’s night, but he did, and he also had 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Paul Pierce (1.70) had another very nice fantasy line with 22 points (12-13 from the line), 12 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. And finally, Danilo Gallinari (1.63) continued his strong play for the Nuggets with 17 points (10-11 from the line), 9 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Does anyone know when he started the Jersey Short style hair? I’m just wondering cause it seems he’s got the G and the L, and just needs a little more T before he can be rival The Situation.

***

Pick Up Lines: Did anyone remember that Chris Wilcox (1.73) was actually still in the league? Yeah, evidently he’s starting for the Pistons, who are apparently still an NBA team! It must be tough to not be good enough that anyone cares, but also not be bad enough that you get super awesome lottery picks. Anyway, last night Wilcox had 27 points (12-18 from the field) and 13 rebounds, and is averaging 12 and 7 over 5 games in April (2% owned).

Kwame Brown (1.46) put up his 8th double-double of the season with 23 points (10-15 from the field) and 13 rebounds, adding 2 steals (8% owned). Of course, that was against Miami, who might have better interior defense if they went with Inflatable Ben Wallace.

Jerryd Bayless (1.29) continued his MVP campaign with 24 points (3 threes), 8 assists, and 2 steals (22% owned).

Corey Brewer (1.29) has had two pretty nice games now, with his second being this one: 20 points (4-4 from the line), 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals (10% owned). With Butler and Kidd out, and Jason Terry only playing 8 minutes, it might make sense to pick up Brewer for the home stretch.

Can Shawne Williams (0.95) do something fantasy-wise next season? His 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 blocks last night make an argument in his favor (7% owned). And he plays for the Knicks who can turn anyone into a fantasy All Star.

Biggest Loser: Wilson Chandler (-1.01) has been a big part of the Nuggets success since the Carmelo trade, but recently he’s been in a slump. They need to get him back on track and out of his 2 point, 0 rebound, 1 assist, 1-10 from the field kind of crap if they hope to Oklahoma City, or Dallas, or maybe even the Lakers? Speaking of which, any of those match-ups would be awesome, and once again, who is not psyched for the playoffs??? Denver played OKC last night, and lost that game, but do you really think they want OKC to move up so that Dallas falls to them in the first round? Or would they want to switch spots with Portland in case LA falls to 3rd place and have that as the first round series? It’s going to be tough no matter what, but it’s going to be fun times. Speaking of Denver and OKC, watch out, cause J.R. Smith (-0.99) also had a terribly night with only 6 points, 1 rebound, and 3 assists, while going 1-6 from the field. Both of them have much better splits against the Mavericks, but Ty Lawson had better games (granted, he averaged 3 more minutes) against OKC, as did Arron Afflalo and Nene… Tough call.

They don’t wear green, but the New Orleans Honeybees represent Willie Green’s team. Good job, Willie.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

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Wait, what? The wildly overpaid, past-his-prime, disappointment three years running Elton Brand? The guy who has been on the decline for 5 straight years? That Elton Brand?

Yes, that guy.

If Brand has been that good this season, I want to know why. So first let’s take a look at exactly how Brand has improved this year compared to last:

The first thing that jumps out is the big increase in minutes, which are up nearly five a game from last season. The departure of Samuel Dalembert (and the arrival of Doug Collins) has been the primarily catalyst for Brand’s increase in minutes. He has gotten more opportunity to play center this season – Dalembert averaged 25.9 minutes last season for the Sixers while his replacement, Spencer Hawes, has only averaged 19.6. Marreese Speights’ minutes are also down this season.

That extra five minutes a game for Brand Is a big reason for his jump in scoring and rebounding. In fact, here are the same stats if Brand had played 35 minutes a game last season.

On a per minute basis, Brand’s numbers look very similar to last season with the exception of his shooting percentages and his rebounding numbers.

***

The increase in rebounding is the easier of the two numbers to explain. Again, we go back to Dalembert, who is a very, very good rebounder and was at the top of his game last year. Dalembert grabbed 21.8% of all rebounds (and 30.7% of defensive rebounds) while he was on the court in 2009-10. By comparison, Hawes is a decent enough rebounder – his 16.2% rebounding rate is second on the team behind Speights – but he is definitely no Dalembert in terms of his ability to clean glass. Add in the fact that the rest of the Sixers aren’t particularly strong rebounders (Andre Iguodala is second on the team with 5.7 boards a game) and there is a rebounding void left by Dalembert that is more or less spoon feeding Brand more opportunity on the glass.

To sum it up, Brand is not an alpha rebounder, but he will grab boards if no one else on the team wants to step up.

Brand’s shooting is currently at levels we haven’t seen since his days with the Clippers. While his shots per game have fallen from 16-18 per game at the height of his career to 11.9 a game this season and his usage rate is down to a career low 20%, he is hitting more of his shots than at any point in the past few years. His true shooting percentage is up from 51.8 last year to 57.3 this year, which is the highest it’s been since the 2006-07 season.

How is he doing it? Here is Elton Brand’s shot breakdown according to HoopData.

The kinds of shots that Brand is taking has not changed all that much from last year, although he’s making two types of shots a lot more often. His field goal percentage at the rim is up to 67%, which again is in line with his days with the Clippers. But the real big change comes for shots taken in the 10-15 foot range, where Brand is making over half his shots compared to only 41.7% last season.

This is the part where I would break down the tape to analyze the differences if I were a bigger Sixers fan. Instead, I’ll note that the percentage of shots he’s getting assisted on is way up in the 10-15 foot range, so it appears that he’s getting more open looks off the pass compared to something like isolation plays. Strangely, the move from Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense – an offense designed with passing, backdoor cuts and open shots in mind – to a more traditional offense under Doug Collins has improved the number of assisted shots Brand is scoring off of. You can easily make the argument that the Princeton offense was completely wrong for this team and especially Brand.

Can Brand do this again next season. The point Nels made in the article is not to sleep on Brand in fantasy drafts next season, as there is the potential for him to be just as good in 2011-12. Do I buy that? Well, the Sixers are in a strange no mans land in terms of talent and direction. Other than Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner, they aren’t young enough (and don’t want to be) to be rebuilding and at the same time they aren’t talented enough to be competing for a title. Doug Collins seems committed to the short-term by leaning heavily on guys like Iguodala and Brand while not concerning himself with the development of Holiday or Turner. Collins is basically all-in with the team he currently has.

So, if they bring back the same cast of characters under Collins and (especially) if they keep Hawes or someone similar as their center, then there is no reason why Brand can’t continue to perform at a high level. He’ll only be 32 at the start of next season, which is younger than Kobe, Dirk, Paul Pierce and plenty of other guys who still have something left in the tank. As long as he can stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brand continues to be a top 50 fantasy player over the next couple of years.

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Line of the Night: Elton Brand (2.65) has worked his way up to #30 on the Player Rater, and last night’s game was one of his best (or perhaps the best) of the season: 33 points (14-23 from the field, 5-5 from the line), 16 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. I’m definitely putting him on my draft radar for next season. I think he should be a decent value pick, since it seems like he’s sort of flying under the radar for a lot of casual fantasy owners. Just something to think about for those leagues where you’re not playing against other GMTR readers.

Honorable Mentions: Amir Johnson (2.52) is another guy who’s flying under the radar because he’s a good player on a crappy team. Last night he had 19 points (8-10 from the field), 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. One of his best games of the season as well, but not out of the ordinary for him at this point. Baron Davis (2.08) had a Point Guard double-double with 22 points (4-4 from the line) and 13 assists, adding 4 steals. It’s harder to hide as a good player on the crappy Clippers these days because of Blake Griffin, but since they’re still 19-30 (losing by 1 to Atlanta), Davis is still technically a good player on a bad team. Andre Iguodala (2.04) had been hiding out his whole career on the 76ers, and while everyone knows how good he can be, playing for Philadelphia tends to make him a much less sexy fantasy pick. Last night’s 18 points and a crazy 16 assists (along with 2 blocks) put him up to #34 on the Player Rater. J.J. Hickson (1.75) is one of the few Cavs players that people actually own at this point. He pretty much defines Good Player on a Bad Team (though, the Good Player part is somewhat questionable due to his consistency), and demonstrated again last night with 31 points (including a surprising 9-10 from the line), and 15 rebounds.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Anthony Parker (1.60) is still building back to the good player he was just starting to be on the Cavs before getting injured. Last night was his second nice game in a row with 18 points (4 threes, 5-7 from the field), 5 assists, and 3 steals. I’d wait one more game, but since he’s playing for the Cavs who are struggling to field a team that would be competitive in the NCAA, he should be up in the 30-35 minute per game range. He’s definitely a better option than Christian Eyenga, Joey Graham, and Manny Harris (sorry Manny).

Pick Up Lines: Raja Bell (1.42) is almost the complete opposite of a good player on a bad team… He plays for a very good team and is just kind of “meh”. How’s that for brilliant use of diction. Bell’s 20 points (7-11 from the field), 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals are definitely inflated stats because he played 40 minutes due the Andrei Kirilenko’s absence and Gordon Hayward’s total inability to guard Carmelo Anthony without fouling him.

Ramon Sessions (1.27) is someone I’d recommend picking up along with Parker (and I can stand by that statement since he is currently starting for two of my teams). The 20 points (8-13 from the field, 4-4 from the line) are more than what you should expect on any sort of regular basis, as are the 11 assists, but those are numbers that he can put up every few games and the games in between aren’t ones where wanders like a ghost out there on the court. Of course, that’s probably why he is up to 48% ownership.

Often when analyzing Waiver Wire players on a daily basis, we come up with the same guys over and over. But not over and oer consistently. Just over and over because they’re inconsistent enough that nobody wants to pick them up, but good enough that they can put up stats that we have to mention. Yes, I’m talking about Rudy Fernandez (1.27) (and, of course, Ersan Ilyasova). Fernandez had 19 points, 5 assists, and 2 steals last night, and while he should probably be owned in most deep leagues, his 16% ownership rate is probably already reflective of the reality that is his inconsistent performance.

I’m only going to mention Eddie House (1.12) because when someone can make 2-4 threes per game, they’re going to end up with a few points. Take House’s 16 points on 4 threes last night. He also had 2 steals, which is something he’s fairly decent at doing.

I remember Patrick posting something about Sam Young (0.98), so I guess he must be a professional basketball player. I’m not ready to call him a good player on a bad team, because, well, the Grizzles actually have a winning record. And he’s a second round pick who’s averaged 16 minutes per game up until January of this year. Sure, that’s better than I can do, so who I am to cut him down. I’m not ready to pick him up, but he did start for the 13th straight game for the Grizz, and scored 19 points (7-10 from the field, 5-5 from the line) while he was at it. It doesn’t look like he’s figured out how to do much beyond put the ball in the hole, so unless you’re desperate for pure scoring, it’s probably best to leave him for the other 95% of leagues where he’s still available.

Biggest Loser: The Other Young: Nick Young (-1.04), who – through no coincidence – is also a pure scorer, had 17 points, 1 rebound, and 2 assists last night, while shooting 7-20 from the field. Young is owned in 77% of leagues, so perhaps there is hope for his brother from another mother with the same last name. Now… Whatever happened to that Thaddeus character?

Return from Injury: Wilson Chandler (-0.74) played 20 minutes in his first game back after missing three. Clearly his game was off, though, as he ended with only 3 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, and went 1-6 from the field. Good for me, though since I’m playing a guy who has him starting this week.

In The Bonus: CBS Sports Week 16 Planner | Deep League Pick-ups | Fantasy Basketbear is Amusing | Kevin Love is an All Star (Thank the Basketball Gods)

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version).

Do not miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter, or become a fan of GMTR on Facebook! We’re so social!

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1. They hired a new coach, Doug Collins.
2. They opted to shake things up in their front court by trading away Samuel Dalembert.
3. They lucked out and got the second pick in this season’s draft, which they used to pick Evan Turner.

That’s what’s new with the team, but let’s not forget that at it’s core still lies it’s two best players, Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. They are actually surrounded by a decent core of returning, support-players like Louis Williams; Thaddeus Young; and Jrue Holiday.

Now all they really need to do is get their two studs on the same page and actually get them to do some damage as a duo. Maybe Pau and Kobe can invite them over for a game of charades one night? Or not! This is something that they will have to set in motion on their own.

New Coach

Speaking of motion… exit Coach Eddie Jordan’s motion offense. It kind of had to go away… ALONG with the coach who has been replaced by Doug Collins, who FYI, was picked number one overall by Philly in 1973 . This is an opportunity for a fresh start for the Sixers, because frankly speaking, the motion offense was simply not working for them. Collins is a fine coach and has the experience to deliver a clear direction for this team. He has a respectable 332-287, win-loss NBA coaching record; but unfortunately has been known for being part of some of the more unpopular highlights in NBA history…

…but I’m sure we can let bygones be bygones, right? Yes, we can all say it in unison kids… FAIL!

Got it out of your system yet?

Had your laugh? Good, let’s move on.

Well let’s give him a pass, at least for now, and see if he can get this young and talented team working (and playing) as one unit. One would think that coming from a 27 win, 55 loss record in 2009-2010, there is no other way to steer this team but UP… right? Doug will surely bring some inspiration to a locker room that quite frankly, has lost its way. He will have a free hand at probably the last chance to make Philadelphia’s acquisition of Elton Brand an acceptable, if not even marginal, success.

Depth Chart

PG: Jrue Holiday, Louis Williams

SG : Evan Turner, Willie Green, Jodie Meeks, Rodney Carney

SF: Andre Iguodala, Andres Nocioni, Jason Kapono

PF: Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young, Andres Nocioni, Jason Smith

C:  Spencer Hawes, Marreese Speights, Francisco Elson

The Crew

Let’s kick things of with the newbie on the team. Yahoo’s Marc Spears has Evan Turner as one of the losers of the NBA’s summer league, but as of the Sixers’ July 16th team report Turner is still expected “to start opposite Iguodala (Andre) on the wing.” And because of his expected start, Turner should be considered as a late round flier in most leagues, if only to ride the reward of his athleticism and basketball IQ.

While I would have personally preferred to see him learn the ropes from the bench, and see Turner be on-court Iguodala while the real one is resting on the bench, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. The Sixers see that he’s capable of making an instant impact and want him to begin his hands-on training A.S.A.P. Whether this is a sign that they want to groom a potential, future replacement for AI9, we’ll have to wait and see.

The bottom line is that this Buckeye will have to 1.) get into better NBA shape 2.) learn to work well WITHOUT the ball, something that he was not accustomed to in his last year of playing college ball 3.) take his first PRO year in stride and quickly crank up his learning curve. It will be interesting to see how well he’ll be able to hold on to starter’s minutes.

Spencer Hawes and his lackluster performance with the Sacramento Kings last season made him look more like a forgettable back-up singer on GLEE rather than the star center we were all hoping he would grow into. Will he, can he, be a better complement to Elton Brand (than Samuel Dalembert) in the front court?

If he doesn’t want the pressure of being “the man” down low, he now needn’t worry. Brand, while seemingly unable to do so last season, is still willing and determined to be the team’s difference maker in the low block. The risk with Hawes is that if he does carry over his underwhelming and uninspired production, we could very well see Marreese Speights steal his thunder in no time.

For now though, giving Hawes some benefit of the doubt, he should be a little bit more inspiring and metaphorically gleeful as a starter on this new team. Speights and his high-energy hustle would be a better spark plug off the bench.

Elton Brand has been more conundrum than inspiring comeback story last season. More than issues of him just “not properly fitting in,” it’s the ominous possibility of it all  being about his expected decline is what makes Philly top brass and some fantasy managers find it hard to not swallow the in-denial pill. For now, it’s more prudent to expect the worst and hope for the best when it comes to dealing with Brand this coming 2010 season. At the end of the day, draft Brand with a touch of conservatism and less about him potentially making a comeback. While that ship may not have sailed just yet, stormy weather may still be ahead.

As erratic as EB has been the last couple of years, Andre Iguodala has remained reliable and consistent. Things look like we’re headed for another season of his counting-stats-goodness. There’s no indication that he will cease producing points, assists, steals, rebounds, and threes for your fantasy team in 2010. It’s HIS team. He’s the main man. It’s just that he’s not as prolific a scorer as some other fantasy draft picks. His percentages leave a lot to be desired, but those (and his turnovers) are the only things keeping him from meriting a higher draft position.

Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young should still continue to get better. There aren’t any real major foreseeable jumps in their performance to pump up pre-draft raves for them. They’re both still very fantasy viable, nonetheless. Sweet Lou Williams will be taking a hit. He should produce impressive sixth man type of numbers, but they might not be at par with last year’s crop of numbers.

So, for the guys we want to draft… Here’s your official GMTR Guidance (for a 12 team league):

Andre Iguodala – Acceptable reach in the late second; good value at early third; steal at late third/early fourth.

Elton Brand - Acceptable reach in late sixth (6th!) round; good value in the seventh; steal in the tail end of the eighth round onwards. Agree or disagree, but he did finish last season at 102nd in the GMTR Rater.

Louis Williams - Ninth round or so, depending on how well you see Holiday and Turner running things in the back court.

Spencer Hawes – Late tenth round, if you’re optimistic; eleventh if you’re a bit more level headed; he should be a good value pick in the 12th round and onwards.

Evan Turner/Thaddeus Young/Jrue Holiday - They’re best as last round flier picks

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Samuel Dalembert was not too happy with his role with the Philadelphia 76ers last season. The truth of the matter was that the team’s front court was in disarray and couldn’t manage to muster any consistent synergy throughout the 2009-2010 season.

Regardless of Dalembert’s personal sentiments regarding his situation, the move for Philly’s front office was clear (relatively). Things needed to shaken up. After eight seasons with the Sixers, Samuel is now moving on. He was recently traded to the Sacramento Kings for both Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni.

The trade makes sense for both teams. Sacramento’s front court was suffering from lackluster performances from their “young bigs” for most of the season as well. Hawes, in particular, came up as huge fantasy disappointment as he appeared to take two steps back in his development. He finished 149th in GMTR’s player rater. That’s a rather far cry from where experts (well at least me) predicted he would perform last season.

Chad Ford of ESPN, believes that this transaction may have an effect on who the Kings and Sixers will target in the upcoming NBA draft.

Dalembert, who the Kings need to man things in the middle, will probably do slightly better than he did when he had to compete for time on the floor with both Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young. I do not, however, visualize him surpassing his last season’s 81st rank on our player rater by a large margin. He should end up being a serviceable back-up center for most fantasy teams. Somewhere to the tune of nine boards and a hair shy of two blocks a night should be fine and dandy for a seventh round fantasy draft pick. Just don’t expect him to do a lot of scoring nor to have a big impact on your team’s bottom line in the FG% category. What you can expect is more stability as far as his minutes are concerned. Jason Thompson and Carl Landry can share time at the four in most games, but should eat up some of Dalembert’s playing time if the Kings opt to play some small ball.

Hawes, who is does not fit your stereotypical big man archetype, might just be able to play alongside Elton Brand and actually coexist on the floor. After his poor showing last season, I expect Hawes to be available late in most drafts. Newly hired coach, Doug Collins, might be able to get Brand to mentor Hawes. It should be safer to play it more on a wait-and-see type of outlook when it comes to Hawes. Add a healthy Marresse Speights into the mix and Spencer might just ended up fading into the shadow of fantasy obscurity. A generous outlook for him next season would be to see him bring a 14-point, 7.5-rebound nightly average.

Nocioni, on the other hand, will probably go undrafted in most fantasy leagues. He will play sparing minutes behind Brand and Young. Let’s not forget that he also does have to contend with Speights for minutes at the four and potentially with rookie, Turner (if picked) for time at the three. Andres will get some quality minutes every now and then due to his being a “grizzled vet,” but then again isn’t that the role Brand’s supposed to play? Unfortunately for Nocioni, he might just find himself  lost in the shuffle, as far as his fantasy value is concerned. His departure opens a window for Francisco Garcia, who was sidelined for most of last season with a broken wrist, to make a comeback. At this point, it’s too early to tell.

We’ll likely be revisiting both these teams after the NBA draft and after July first. I fully expect the Kings to make a few moves (not major ones) in the free agent market this season.

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I can’t hate on Thaddeus too much though, because his 3 three-pointers did win me that category. His 32 points didn’t do much since I had already lost that category, but I’m sure it was good for some people. Same thing for the 4 steals.

Honorable Mentions: Kobe Bryant (1.12) was the second best line with 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists, but he missed a few too many shots late for the Lakers to overcome the Magic.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Jrue Holiday (0.89) was another 76er to put up some nice numbers, and even better, he’s only owned in 10% of leagues. He’s not consistent by any unit of measurement, but with Iverson finally officially out, he’s got the opportunity to get into a groove and put up lines like 21 points (3 threes), 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks on a more regular basis. Don’t forget to check the GMTR Fantasy Basketball Schedule Grid when making your free agent selections.

The Biggest Loser: I’m not sure if it’s irony (who knows how to use that word correctly?), but we just posted about this guy as one of the biggest free agent busts: Ben Gordon (-0.53) got another 26 minutes to try to do something for the Pistons. Gordon managed 6 points on 1-7 from the field, adding 2 rebounds and 2 turnovers. He was 4 of 4 from the line, so there’s that.

This brings me (sort of) to something I wanted to talk about it bit, so I’ll slide it in here. That’s what she said.

Now, this has more to do with being a basketball fan than it does with fantasy basketball, really, but let’s just get into it: Anyone can play for 30 games. It’s a similar axiom to People will play harder in contract years. This new one though, I’ve created because, well, trades. Look at John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas. Traded from the Bulls (thus why they are close to my heart and this example), they have really stepped it up with their new teams. I believe this especially applies to a player like Tyrus with the fiery emotions. When a player gets traded right before the deadline, they get a built in chip on their shoulder. But how long can a player play with a chip on their shoulder? The best players can do it their entire careers. Those kinds of players don’t usually get traded right before the trade deadline, though. So, how long is that chip going to stay there for an average or even above average player? Will it stand the test of a lazy off-season, the same old boring training camp, and the lethargy that is the 82 of the NBA season? I doubt it. Which is to say, as a fan, don’t despair if your team traded someone who’s blowing up.

I’m pretty sure this can apply to Houston Rockets fans as well as Bulls fans. Trust me, there Rocketeers, you’ve been burned by Tracy McGrady too many times. Don’t think that just because he’s playing well for the Knicks means you should have maybe kept him around. Not only is he playing off a trade, but he’s also playing for a new contract. How’s that for double dipping?

Just remember, the best players in the league are the best because they play well for more than 30 games a season.

All Eyez On Me: San Antonio will test their potential as a Championship contender against Cleveland.

The Golden Ticket: Atlanta is at New York. Atlanta is a pretty slow team (which always surprises me considering the young, athletic players they have), but I’m sure NY can bring some spring to their step.

Golden State is still just basically running up and down the court with no regard for the actual game of basketball. Tonight, they see how many times they can cross half court against New Orleans.

Don’t Forget: Play GMTR’s Weekly Fantasy Game. No, really. It’s fun!

And now, since I’ve been fairly limited in my range of Tiny Dancer presentations, I’m going to give you some Philadelphia 76ers Dancers action right now:

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Dont miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock  right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter.

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And that’s kind of the funny thing about Iverson. I (and I think many others) just want to write him off as an over the hill trouble maker who should just retire so that we never have to hear about him for the rest of our lives. But once I took a good look at his stats, I saw that that they were not quite as bad as I remember. Yes, his numbers have fallen off from their peak, but it is easy to forget how good his peak was. Even as 34-year old malcontent, maybe Iverson does still have enough left in the tank to start for an NBA team. Reader wilsonchow commented on The Not-Quite-Post Iverson Post and gives us the hometown version of that argument:

AI can still play, period.
I’ve always thought he still has it, the whole “does he still have it” talk is really ridiculous…
His 07-08 stats: 26.4 pts, 7.1 ast, 2 stl, FG 45.8%
His career stats: 27 pts, 6.2 ast, 2.2 stl, FG 42.5%

That [07-08] was the last season AI was still a starter and his stats were even better than his career stats with higher ast and FG%. I agree his FG% will drop back to his career %, but he can still provide the same stats. I think at least 20 ppg is easy for him.

Let’s ignore Iverson’s career stats for now. Michael Jordan averaged 30 points a game in his career, but I wouldn’t want to throw him out on the court for yet another unretirement.

But how about the other point? A mere two years ago, Iverson averaged 42 minutes a game for the Nuggets and finished with 26.4 points and 7.1 assists over 82 games. Iverson regressed quite a bit in 08-09 with the Pistons, however, he was obviously not happy with his role on the team. Detroit also tends to be a horrible team for fantasy purposes*. The combination of those two things may have made Iverson look like he was about to fall off a cliff stats wise when he was really just in a bad situation.

So, despite wilsonchow thinking it is a ridiculous question, I still have to ask, does Iverson still have it? And what I really mean by that is what kind of stats should be expected from Iverson in his second go around with the Sixers?

To attempt to answer that question more accurately than my first half-asssed attempt, I took Iverson’s year-by-year stats and adjusted them based on two factors: 1) pace (or the average number of possessions per game his teams had), and 2) the amount of minutes he played per game on average for the year.

I graphed the results out by year taking Iverson’s adjusted stats and calculating them out as if he averaged 35 minutes a game his entire career. Why? Well, that is my rough assumption for what he will average with the Sixers while Lou Williams is out and it allows us to compare Iverson’s yearly stats on a level playing field. Here are his standardized counting stats (minus blocks, which he doesn’t really do).

Alright, you can see a number of cool things from these graphs.

• Iverson had a peak (at least in terms of his scoring output) and he’s clearly past it: From 2000-2006, Iverson was able to average a pace-adjusted 25 points per 35 minutes of play. That number dropped to about 20 with the Nuggets and down to 17.5 last season with Detroit.
• Iverson’s drop in scoring has to do with him making less threes… I have not done this type of thing with any other player, but Iverson’s scoring output looks to be strongly correlated with the amount of threes he’s making. That would obviously make a lot of sense since making threes is usually a popular way to score. However, to predict his value going forward, you need to know if his big drop in threes last season with the Pistons was a fluky thing, or if he’s taking less threes for good.
• The rest of his stats remain strong: Iverson increased his assist rate beginning around 2003. It remained strong even last year. While his rebounding was never great even for a guard, it is still as good as it ever was. And while his steals are down off their peak, he is still averaging a very good 1.5+ per 35 minutes.

So, what can we expect from Iverson with the Sixers? Using a combination of regression and fuzzy math, you get something like this:

The best and worst case scenarios represent the reasonable upper and low boundary of Iverson’s potential. If you throw out last year with the Pistons and assume the Iverson is going to play big minutes for the Sixers, then it is easily possible that he averages well over 20 points a game. But on the flip side, if his performance last year was a sign of him getting old fast, then get ready for him to crash and burn. The likely case is that he continues the slow aging trend that began in 2006, but bounces back from an off year with Detroit where he never meshed with the style of the team.

So, I was never expecting to say this, but yes, I think Iverson still has it.

*Detroit had the second lowest pace in the league in 2008-09 at only 86.7 possessions per 48 minute game.

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Oh dear. Turns out someone wanted him. I’m sure we all know by now, and some of us even expect some sort of analysis from their fantasy experts.

Here’s what Patrick said:

My half-assed prediction? About 30-33 minutes a game while Lou Williams is out – 15 points, 42% shooting percentage, 6.5 – 7 assists, 0.8 threes, and 1.5 steals . That does make him well worth owning in fantasy leagues in the short-term, however, I do think things will get ugly fast when Williams is set to return. Maybe the Sixers continue to start Iverson when Williams gets back, I guess it depends on how he performs over the next few weeks.

Here’s what I say: I was planning on being less generous than Patrick, but then I read what he actually wrote. And here’s what I really say: Allen Iverson should give half (or maybe more) of his paycheck to Louis Williams for getting injured right when he quit the Grizzlies.

Okay, really…

I’m giving Iverson 17 points, but still at 42%, which actually means he’ll hurt you a bit more than what Patrick was thinking. Unfortunately, Patrick ignored the fact that Iverson shoots quite a few free throws at only about 78%. That’s probably enough to get you through, but since Iverson’s other strengths are Points, Assists, and Threes (sort of), he’s definitely a Small Ball type guard. And so, that FT% might come back to haunt you when you’re going against that team in your league with the 81% team percentage, and Iverson brings your 82% down to an 80%…

Of course, he’s probably already been picked up (or perhaps was never dropped) in anything but really shallow leagues, so this advice should probably be more of a “trade him or trade for him” scenario.

Unfortunately for me, I think Iverson will probably be about as good on the 76ers as he’s been his entire career. So, if you want that and realize that you’re basically renting him for 8 weeks (maybe less, maybe more), then go ahead and go for it. He’s got 8 weeks to play whatever fantasy basketball-ishly relevant kind of ball he’s going to play. At least I hope the Sixers plan on letting the Ghost of Sixers Past go his own way once the future of the team is back.

In the mean time, Iverson is an almost perfect stand in (somehow) for Baby Lou, so I actually don’t think that the rest of the teams stats will be affected.

(Courtesy of Seal.com)

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Line of the Night: In the loss, Tracy McGrady (0.90) had 28/6/8 on a very good (for him) 47% of 23 shots, adding 2 steals and a block. That’s some vintage first/second round T-Mac right there.

Honorable Mentions: He’s not Mr. Double-Double yet, but I picked him up a few days ago in the GMTR Readers League: Travis Outlaw (0.83) had 14/13/1 with 2 threes, a steal, and 2 blocks.

Hedo Turkoglu (0.79) had 20/8/3 with 2 threes, 2 steals, and a block. LaMarcus Aldridge (0.64) could have been a Bull, but instead we have Mr. Consistency and a white guy who is, I guess, still on the roster. Meanwhile, Aldridge had 25/9/2 with 3 blocks while making 63% of 19 shots.

Jameer Nelson (0.60) had 16/4/9 with a three and 2 steals on 50% from the floor.
Rashard Lewis (0.46) had 20/8/4 with 3 threes and a steal, but only shot 35% from the field and 60% from the line.
Finally, Samuel Dalembert (0.42) had 10/14/1 with 2 blocks and shot 62.5%.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Clearly if Travis Outlaw is available, he’s the go to guy for last night. He only shot 41.7%, but the good thing is that means he qualifies under Patrick’s Less Than 70% rule.

I’m going to end it there because really, the other guys who might be available only made the list because there were only two games last night.

The Biggest Loser: Stephon Marbury, who is evidently contemplating a training stint with Lincoln High School in New York. Ouch. Nothing like getting kicked out of the NBA to help coach your high school basketball team.

Really, though… my man crush Elton Brand (-0.38) went 3/8 last night for 6 points. He did have 12 rebounds, but he missed both free throw opportunities, and didn’t get a steal or block a shot. Not gonna cut it for a first round pick.

All Eyez On Me: This is the inaugural edition of AEOM. I just made it up yesterday, but Patrick agreed it was a cool idea, so here goes. Basically, I was feeling like there’s so many ways to watch basketball these days and so many games available on a typical night (even if you don’t have cable, like me), you may want (or not, in which case, you can skip down to the next section) some advice on which will be the most interesting games from a Fantasy Perspective. If this ends up being more trouble than it’s worth, we reserve the right to discontinue it at any time. That said, there’s a lot of games on tonight…

New York @ Washington: I think most people are still trying to figure out which Knicks are going to be the fantasy stars, so anytime there’s a Knicks game, it’s probably worth watching.

Minnesota @ Sacramento: The Return of Brad Miller. What’s going to happen to everyone’s favorite early pickups Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson?

Detroit @ New Jersey: AI.

Dallas @ Denver: Chauncey.

Friday’s Tiny Dancer: I watched parts of the ORL/PHI game last night on TNT’s OverTime streaming thing (there was a link from Yahoo’s NBA page – don’t ask me how to get there if you’re actually looking for it), and if you like being at the game more than watching a broadcast, this might be for you. There’s no commercials so instead they show the arena during the breaks. And by arena, I mean you get to see the dance teams in action. Last night, Philly was in Orlando (I should have stayed up for the other game, but since it was in Portland, that wasn’t going to happen). In honor of the Magic win and me watching the game in their arena…

Rachael:

And a bonus, Brittany:

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