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Day 124 of 124: Anybody Home?

Nels — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 13:18:06 +0000

When it’s the morning after the last day of regular season basketball, and the stats aren’t loading, and everyone’s rested their main guys last night anyway, and I haven’t gotten together with Patrick and Erik for our End of Year Awards yet… all I’m left with is a playoff preview… If it’s interesting to me, hopefully it’ll be interesting to you too.

I’m going to these cutesy/clever nicknames for the conferences even though I don’t think they’re really applicable. Though I do believe that if the Bulls somehow make it to the Finals, they are capable of beating whoever comes out of the West. Perhaps more so than I think the East will still win if Miami makes it. That said, I still think Miami will make it. Oops… Spoiler Alert!

Beastern Conference

Bulls vs. 76ers

Yeah, I’m going to start with my home team, but they do have the overall best record (after the tie-break with San Antonio). Even with Derrick Rose still rounding back into form, the Bulls will take this one. I’m glad that Evan Turner wanted to play the Bulls instead of the Heat. If I were a lower seed, I’d probably rather play the Bulls too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. Of course, as a Bulls fan, I was also hoping that they’d get to play Philly, because they’re an easier matchup than the Knicks. So, take that Evan Turner.

Bulls in 5.

Heat vs. Knicks

I’m really not sure if the Knicks even take one in this series. I’ll give it to them just based on Miami’s lack of mental toughness and their Center position. Tyson Chandler should dominate, but it won’t be enough.

Heat in 5

Pacers vs. Magic

Poor Magic. I feel bad for the rest of the guys on the team to have to deal with Dwight’s drama all season and then lose him two weeks before the playoffs. Glen Davis says he’s going to play, and who would have ever thought that saying something like that would carry such weight? Still…

Pacers in 5.

Celtics vs. Hawks

This is probably the closest matchup in the East (which makes sense because it’s the middle seeds), but with Garnett and Rondo rested and Pierce seeming to be the same player he always is, the Hawks just don’t have enough to take it. They’re still very undisciplined (if Josh Smith had an Indian name it would be “Settles For Jumpers”) and they are still stuck with Joe Johnson’s contract (which basically formed a straight-line cause-and-effect to the lockout) and they aren’t supposed to get Al Horford back unless they make it to the second round (see you next year Al).

Celtics in 5.

Lesstern Conference

Spurs vs. Jazz

The Jazz are good, and the Spurs have a history recently of being vulnerable in the first round. But Utah just doesn’t quite have all the pieces yet. Their front court of Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors is pretty intimidating, though, and even Gordon Hayward seems like he might have more of an impact than I think anyone really thought he could. Perhaps with another year or two of playoff experience (and playing together experience) and a better Point Guard they could beat this Spurs team.

Spurs in 6.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Too bad for the Mavs their attempt at a repeat ends here. I’m sure Mark Cuban did his fancy analysis and determined that the guys he has should have played better than they did, but losing Tyson Chandler left them with a much bigger hole than I’d ever thought Tyson Chandler would leave. And of course, the Thunder just continued to get better.

Thunder in 5.

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Maybe the second most interesting series of the whole playoffs. The Lakers are good… but very vulnerable. The Nuggets aren’t as good as they maybe could have been, but they’re still pretty good. Their team is finally all there, and while they don’t have anyone on the level of Kobe, Pau, or Bynum, they do have one of the deeper teams in the league. And the Lakers will be without Ron Artest for most (if not all) of the series. It’s one of only two real toss-ups in my mind, but I feel like if the Nuggets can get up 2-1 then they’ll take it in 6. If they get down 2-1, then Lakers in 6. Which is more likely? I’ll put my money down on Denver.

Nuggets in 6.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

This is certainly going to be the most closely contested first round match-up. Each team won its home games, so the fact that it went 2-1 LA probably just means it would have been 2-2 if they’d played one more in Memphis. Since Memphis earned home court advantage with their win over the starter-less Magic last night, I’m going to say the trend continues. Both teams are still young and will probably not have the strength or discipline to stand up to the other team’s home crowd.

Grizzlies in 7.

And now that the stats are updated, here’s our regularly scheduled program called This Is Why Your Leagues Should End Before The Last Two Weeks of the Season (in which the stars of your regularly scheduled program have been replaced by a bunch of no-name actors; e.g., if Billy Baldwin replaced Alec on 30 Rock’s LIVE episode, or if Parks & Rec replaced Amy Poehler with Kristin Wiig… no, wait, that would be equally good… How about if Person of Interest replaced Michael Emerson with someone who wasn’t from LOST… no, the old people watching CBS wouldn’t know the difference… How about if the Secret Circle replaced… no… that won’t work at all…).

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Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Patrick Mills (2.70) scored 34 points (4 threes), with 5 rebounds, and 12 assists. I mean, come on. I’m not even going to comment on this…

Honorable Mentions: Only two guys out of the Top 10 lines last night were from guys over 50% ownership: Josh Smith (1.67), whose Hawks were still trying for home court advantage, had 23 points (10-14 from the field), 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Marc Gasol (1.62) had 22 points (8-13 from the field, 6-6 from the line), 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

Then we get to The Replacements.

Pick Up Lines: Ben Gordon (2.58) exploded as Detroit rocked the 76ers. Gordon had 26 points (8 threes, 9-13 from the field), and 5 assists (44% owned), and while I didn’t see the game and I’m not going to bother to look at the box score, I’m going to say that Philly basically threw this one so they could play the Bulls instead of the Heat. And the Bulls will make them pay.

Speaking of the Bulls, how about that John Lucas (2.03) guy? He had another 25 points (3 threes, 10-16 from the field), 4 assists, and 2 steals (2% owned). While the Bulls need a Shooting Guard from the draft this year, I kind of hope they take a Point Guard just so they can get rid of Lucas. He’s a decent basketball player, I just have to cringe way too much when I watch them and he’s in.

Jason Thompson (1.85) finished out a strong season with 17 points (7-11 from the field), 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (40% owned). I think he’ll probably be rated high enough going in to next season that he’ll start off at higher than 40%.

And I think this might be a first… 3 guys with 0% ownership make the list: Jeremy Evans (1.83) with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks (0% owned); Chris Wright (1.71) with 25 points (11-14 from the field), 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks (0% owned); and Ben Uzoh (1.68) with a triple-fucking-double of 12 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists, and 4 steals (0% owned).

Biggest Loser: Yeah, it seems appropriate that Michael Beasley (-1.06) makes it down here with 13 points, 1 rebounds, 1 assists, and 4 turnovers. It’s not his first time and it probably won’t be his last.

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Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Day 14 of 124: Where Josh Smith Has a Game

Patrick — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 12:33:52 +0000

Line of the Night: Josh Smith (3.93 WARP) dominated Carlos Boozer the Bulls on his way to 25 points (on 11-17 shooting), with 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, and 6 blocks. That stat stuffing line not only dominated the fantasy competition last night, but I believe we officially have a new best fantasy line of the year. Smith’s line was helped by the fact that he also hit a three, was 2-2 from the line and only had 1 turnover. So there wasn’t anything that he didn’t do well against the Bulls. It’s was a +9 category contribution for Smith.

And after a slow start to the season, Smith is now averaging 14.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks over the Hawks last 4 games. In my professional opinion… he’s good to go.

Honorable Mentions: Jeff Teague (2.00) scored 12 points, adding 8 assists and 5 steals in the game. He’s been every bit as good as we projected going into the year and kudos if you drafted him as a sleeper this season. Al Horford (1.74) also chipped in 14 points (on 7-8 shooting), with 7 rebounds, and a couple blocks in 24 minutes. Overall, 4 of the top 10 fantasy performance’s last night came from Hawks. And here we thought the Bulls were supposed to have the league’s best defense.

I don’t want to give away the ending of this post, but the Bulls were brutal in this game from a fantasy perspective, which becomes obvious when Kyle Korver (1.05) is your best performer. Korver scored 13 points for the Bulls, adding 3 threes and 5 assists in 35 minutes.

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Danilo Gallinari (2.27) scored a career high 31 points on 10-16 shooting, adding 5 rebounds and 3 threes as the Nuggets lost a wild 121-117 game to the Spurs. Ty Lawson (1.28) added a 20 and 10 in the game. The Spurs were lead by the 24 year old Danny Green (2.74), who scored a career high 24 points on 9-13 shooting, with 7 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks. More on Green below. Richard Jefferson (1.58) – now 66% owned in Yahoo leagues – scored 19 points and was 5-8 from three in the game.

With Dwyane Wade sitting out his third straight game with a bruised left foot, LeBron James (1.83) came out of the gates like a bull in Pamplona , scoring 22 points in the first quarter, eventually finishing with 32 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists in 37 minutes. Everyone’s new favorite point guard, Mario Chalmers (0.71) followed up his combo line of the night with 7 points, 7 assists and 2 steals, which was pretty damn good considering he only got 18 minutes of run in the game. For comparison, Norris Cole (0.47) got 31 minutes off the bench but put up a similar 9 points, 6 assists and 3 steals. Chalmers/Cole is really the definition of a time share where long-term it’s going to be tough for either guy to win.

Wade owners have to be a little bit worried as the day-to-day injury creep sets in. Wade was originally expected to play in the game against the Nets, but was ruled out shortly before game time. He did participate in the team’s shoot around on Saturday morning, so there is a good chance he returns for the Heat’s next game on Wednesday for those of you who have to make the call today in weekly changes leagues.

In his second game back for the Nets, Kris Humphries (1.13) tied his career high with 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in nearly 40 minutes on the court.

But where is Lamar?

Roy Hibbert (1.74) led the Pacers past the Bobcats by a score of 99-77 (yet another blowout on the season) with 20 points on 10-16 shooting, adding 8 rebounds and 3 blocks. Charlotte’s best line came from D.J. Augustin (0.97), who finished with 20 points and 7 boards. Tyrus Thomas (-0.45) got his first start at small forward (with Diaw at PF and DeSagana Diop at C) and scored 10 points with 7 boards in 32 minutes. Despite two mediocre performances since returning from injury, Thomas makes a decent pickup if you’re looking for a rebounds/blocks guy simply because he’s in line for big minutes.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: There was a lot of talk about Gary Neal and James Anderson after the Manu injury, but not so much about the third year Danny Green (2.74), who played all of 8 games last season. Green came off the bench for what I can only assume is a career high 33 minutes and put up the 24 points mentioned above. While he’s not likely to have a performance THIS good anytime soon, he has become the first player off the Spurs bench thanks to the Manu injury and is worth a look in most leagues as a guy who can hit the three and pick up some defensive stats for your team.

Pick Up Lines: Goran Dragic (1.93) got his second straight start for the injured Kyle Lowry and had another great game with 20 points and 8 assists. Dragic has shown in the past he can be a double-double machine when starting. Lowry is day-today however, and it sounds like he should be back for the Rockets’ next game on Wednesday, so leave Dragic on waivers for now.

Vladimir Radmanovic (1.76) is currently available in 100% of leagues! With the Hawks dominating their game against the Bulls and Tracy McGrady hurting, Radmanovic got some extra run (nearly 28 minutes) and scored 17 points by going 5-5 from three. Your fantasy team may need a lot of things, but the one thing I can say with certainty is that it doesn’t need more Vlad Rad.

Al-Farouq Aminu (1.60) got his third straight start in place of the injured Trevor Ariza and had his first good game over that span – scoring 15 points, with 12 rebounds and 4 steals in a huge 44 minutes of run. With Ariza expected back soon, Aminu is another guy to leave on waivers for now.

With Rodney Stuckey also out with a sore groin, Brandon Knight (1.54) got the start against the Knicks and scored 19 points, hitting 5 threes and grabbing 6 rebounds and 3 steals. Knight has been super streaky so far this season and is only worth playing in normal sized leagues while Stuckey is out.

Quick Hits: Drew Gooden (1.03) had an 18 and 13 against the Clippers and remains a must start while Bogut is out. Brandon Rush (1.29) scored 14 points and hit 4 threes in 28 minutes off the bench against the Jazz. He’s one of those guys who is constantly going to be on and off the wire this season. Nate Robinson (0.53) also got 27 minutes off the bench for Golden State, scoring 11 points and adding 5 assists. With Stephen Curry out at least the next week with a sprained ankle, Robinson is worth a look if you need a scorer.

Biggest Loser: So many choices. There is the entire Raptors team, who scored 62 points against the Sixers. It could probably also go to entire Bulls starting rotation. But in terms of individual player performance, Joakim Noah (-1.04) was the worst of the lot, scoring 1 point and adding 4 rebounds in 17 minutes for Chicago. Derrick Rose (0.42) only scored 8 points and had 5 turnovers to his 6 assists, while Luol Deng (-0.51) scored 8 points on 4-13 shooting.

Toney Douglas (-0.99) played a total of 6 minutes in the Knicks’ latest game and finished with 0 points and 1 rebound. He’s lost his starting job to Iman Shumpert and is droppable in all leagues as the Iman era has begun early in New York.

And Boris Diaw (-0.86) has cooled off after his hot start to the season, scoring 2 points on 1-8 shooting, with 2 rebounds and 2 assists before fouling out against the Pacers. A quick check of his game log indicates that those wild Diaw game-to game swings that we all love are back in full effect – his scoring over the last 4 games – 2 points, 10, 27, 0.

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Day 9 of 124: One Tough Break

Patrick — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 14:13:00 +0000

Yesterday’s biggest fantasy news is the…

Injury of the Night: Manu Ginobili (currently the seventh ranked player on the GMTR player rater) broke a bone in his left hand during the Spurs game on Monday and is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks with the injury. That’s one big nasty ass pill for Manu owners to have to swallow. In Manu’s place over the next month we’re going to see more of rookie James Anderson and Danny Green, as well as Gary Neal when he returns from injury.

In case you were thinking about picking Anderson up, he played 22 minutes in the Manu injury game, shooting 1-6 from the floor and finishing with 4 points. So, you’ll want to leave him as a deep league pickup only and instead focus on a guy like Richard Jefferson if he’s available (I know, I can’t believe I said that). Manu owners just have to sit tight and hope he returns to the court on schedule.

Line of the Night: Jarrett Jack (2.94). Chris Paul who? Through the first week, Jack is putting up CP3-like numbers including night’s 27 point, 5 rebound, 11 assist and 2 block game against the Jazz. Ok, he might not be making his teammates look as good as Paul did (though look at that weak Hornets’ starting 5 without Eric Gordon), but Jack is averaging 8 assists so far this year and is rewarding fantasy owners who took a chance on him as a number 1 or 2 PG.

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Honorable Mentions: Kevin Love (2.52) was back after getting the LoTN yesterday, with the second best fantasy line of the night thanks to 24 points, 15 rebounds and 4 threes in that Spurs game. I don’t know what more to add about Love at this point other than you’ll be seeing him again on GMTR soon no doubt.

I watched the Wizards battle the Celtics, so while I applaud JaVale McGee’s (2.25) insane 17 points on 8-9 shooting, with 14 rebounds and 3 blocks, just know that it came against rookie Greg Stiemsma, a gassed Kevin Garnett, the undersized Brandon Bass, and Chris “if I played with any less energy I’d be dead” Wilcox. Still, McGee owners will happily take it. In a similar vein, Andray Blatche (1.94) scored 28 points for the Wiz, adding 9 rebounds and a couple steals and blocks. Best line about Blatche last night on Twitter, “[He] seems to be on the Boris Diaw fitness program.” But when he gets his big body barreling towards the basket, watch out…

For the Celtics, Ray Allen (1.87) was 6-7 from three on his way to 27 points and Paul Pierce (1.24) very much looked like a man with a heel problem hobbling on the court, but still shot well enough to finish with 24 points and 8 boards.

Sound the breakout player siren! Paul George (2.03) had his best game so far this season with 21 points on 5-5 from three. George is getting a lot of run at the 2 for the Pacers and should continue to put up strong, if a little inconsistent, numbers all season.

Nets forward Kris Humphries missed this game because of a sore left shoulder, and Shelden Williams (-0.06) – remember him – did nothing with a spot start in his absence. Marshon Brooks (1.15) actually had the best game for the Nets with 21 points, 7 rebounds and a couple steals. He’s worth an add in most leagues if you are a patient person who can deal with wildly inconsistent games. Deron Williams (1.54) took a nasty fall in this game, but finished the game with 22 points and 8 assists and looks to be ok.

Our projections loved Carlos Delfino (1.94) going into the year. And in his second game back from injury, he’s showing why. Delfino played 42 minutes against the Nuggets and finished with a box score-stuffing 14 points, 3 threes, 9 rebounds, 3 steals, and a couple blocks. He was helped by the fact that Mike Dunleavy sat in the game with an illness. Denver’s best fantasy performance comes all the way down at #35 on the night courtesy of Ty Lawson’s (0.90) 16 points and 6 assists. Not the greatest fantasy night for them.

You can breathe a little easier today if you own Al Horford (1.78) – 16 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks – or Steve Nash (1.73) – 21 points, 9 assists. Both seem to be picking up the pace after very slow starts.

Dirk Nowitzki (1.72) helped hand the Thunder their first loss of the season with 26 points on 10-16 from the field. Lamar Odom (-0.11) actually made an appearance in this game with 8 points and 5 boards. Hey, it’s something for Odom owners to cling to.

OKC’s best game came not from Durant or Westbrook, but James Harden (1.08), with 16 points, 7 boards and a couple steals in 31 minutes. And Serge Ibaka (1.00) had a 10 and 8 with 2 blocks on the night. It’s both a good and bad thing that he saw 41 minutes on the court. Ibaka owners are certainly glad to see him get so much play, but you’d think he could do just a little more on the court with all that run.

Finally, we have to mention Carmelo Anthony’s (1.56) 35 point and 11 rebound game in a loss to the Raptors. Anthony took 31 shots in this game and was responsible for about 40% of the team’s shots on the night.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: On a night where Ricky Rubio had a quiet 6 points and 3 assists, it was Luke Ridnour (1.32) who picked up the slack, scoring 19 points and dishing 9 assists. Technically still the starter for the team, Ridnour’s numbers this year are almost exactly in line with what he’s done in past years – 11 points, 4 assists and a three a game in 27 minutes – making him waiver wire fodder that is only worth consideration in deep leagues or as a plug and play if the weekly schedule is nice.

Pick Up Lines: Getting his first start of the year for the sick David Lee, Dominic McGuire (1.19) was one of the few bright spots for the team in a loss to the (not sucking anymore?) Suns. McGuire scored 14 points and added 9 rebounds in 26 minutes. Lee could be back to the lineup as soon as the Warriors next game, so I would not run out and grab McGuire unless Lee were to seriously get hurt… (not wishing for that).

It really could be Richard Jefferson (1.17) who picks up the Spurs’ scoring slack during Manu’s absence. Jefferson scored 16 points and hit 4 threes in 33 minutes last night and is currently available in 67% of Yahoo leagues. It’s like a reversed version of New York, New York – If Jefferson can’t get it done here, he can’t get it done anywhere. Still, speculatively add him away.

With Jermaine O’Neal hurting (I’ll wait for everyone to get over that surprise), Greg Stiemsma got the start at center for the Celtics and finished with 13 points, 7 boards and a couple blocks in 21 minutes. I get some Brian Scalabrine flashbacks when I watch him play – mostly because he’s an awkward looking white dude – but he’s worth an add if you are in need of a big man as long as O’Neal is sidelined (he’s day-to-day with a hamstring at the moment).

Marshon Brooks (1.15), who I mentioned above is a talented scorer in a packed Nets lineup at the moment. I foresee him frustrating fantasy owners all season long as one night he’ll get 30 minutes and the next he’ll get 15. Still, worth an add if you can take it.

Rasual Butler (1.12) is still in the league? Wow, not only in the league, but starting for the Raptors. Still, yesterday’s 13 point, 10 rebound game should be tempered with the fact that the Raptors had a sizable lead on the Knicks almost all night, giving Butler a season high (by far) 37 minutes on the court. Butler has yet to play more than 20 minutes in any other Raptors game this season, so leave him as a free agent for now.

Tracy McGrady (0.88) anyone? Anyone? No? McGrady drank some rejuvenation juice against the Heat last night, scoring 16 points with 7 rebounds and 3 threes in 26 minutes on the court. You know, his name has become a joke over the past couple of years, but McGrady is playing pretty well for the Hawks right now and is worth a look in deeper leagues. Grab him before he hits a wall.

Quick Hits: Shane Battier (0.71) – with 11 points and 3 threes – had his first good game of the season off the bench for the Heat. I’d want to see him repeat that performance before picking him up however. Power forward Jason Smith (0.80) got 25 minutes of run off the bench for the Hornets and finished with 16 and 8. But he’ll only have long-term value if he takes the starting job away from Carl Landry. Ian Mahinmi (0.43), with 10 points and 9 rebounds, continues to put up nice lines in limited minutes for the Mavs. It’d be nice from a fantasy perspective to see him get a consistent 25 minutes a game before I’d want to pick him up.

Your Latest DeMarcus Cousins Update: Both Paul Westphal and Cousins seem to be sticking with their stories. Cousins is traveling with the team and will dress tonight, but he’s not expected to start. Keep him benched if you own him for now.

Biggest Loser: Time to drop Ed Davis (-1.02) if you’re an owner in one of the 51% of leagues were he’s still in play. Davis played only 15 minutes against the Knicks, scoring 2 points with 1 rebound. That’s been par for the course for him so far this year on a Raptors team that is giving Jamaal Magloire 14 minutes a game off the bench as well.

Anthony Morrow (-0.87) – 2 points on 1-8 from the field – is another guy you want to drop, as he’s getting crowded out of the Nets rotation by Brooks. Brandon Jennings (-0.88) had 3 assists to 6 turnovers against the Nuggets, also helping you lose the FG% category by shooting 5-16 from the field. And then there is poor Dorell Wright (-0.14), who scored no points on 0-4 shooting, with 4 rebounds and 4 assists. Are you panicking yet Wright owners?

In the Bonus: More about Manu from The Daily Dose | Man, U’s In Trouble | Around The League: 1/3/11 | Manu Ginobili Out – James Anderson In?

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Day 154 of 170: All That Jazz

Patrick — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 11:54:00 +0000

Line of the Night: No, the LotN doesn’t go to Melo, who willed the Knicks to their first win in seven games in OT against the Magic. Rather, it goes to a guy who gets 0.01% of the attention Melo has this year. Thaddeus Young (1.72) scored 21 points for the Sixers in less than 25 minutes off the bench, adding 7 boards, 2 steals and 4 blocks as they beat the Bulls 97-85. Young’s problem is that he likes to sprinkle in complete duds (like Sunday’s 4 point affair) in between his truly solid performances, which makes him the Nicolas Cage of the NBA.

Honorable Mentions: All it took was an injury to Jameer Nelson, a game against the Knicks and overtime for Jason Richardson (1.64) to look like his old self again. J-Rich scored 24 points for the Magic, adding 4 threes, 4 assists and 4 steals. Now, without that perfect storm of events, he can return to scoring 13 points a game. As I mentioned up above, Carmelo Anthony (1.12) led the Knicks to a much needed win with 39 points and 10 rebounds – although his strategy of taking as many shots as possible doesn’t change whether the Knicks are winning or losing.

Darren Collison (1.42) showed up against the Celtics after three horrible performances in a row last week. His 17 points on 8-9 shooting with a couple steals is almost enough to forgive the paltry 3 assists. On the other side of the ball, Rajon Rondo (1.17) “only” had 8 assists himself, but scored 22 points on 9-13 from the field.

The Bucks may have melted down (is that a politically correct phrase to use now?) in the fourth quarter against the Bobcats, but both Brandon Jennings (1.41) – 26 points, adding 9 rebounds and 5 assists – and Andrew Bogut (1.28) – 26 points (13-19 from the field), 9 rebounds, 2 blocks – had strong games in the loss.

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: With the Jazz hurting and Andrei Kirilenko MIA with some nerve problems in his knee (as well as Raja Bell spraining an ankle), Utah turned to the only man up to the task of stepping into AK’s haircut. And that’s Gordon Hayward (0.93), who played 37 minutes off the bench against the Wizards and finished with 12 points, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Haywood is not going to be the most consistent player since his minutes still vary quite a bit game-to-game, but he is currently available in 97% of Yahoo leagues and makes a decent poor man’s Kirilenko while the Russian is out (he’s day-to-day, but it sounds like one of those unofficial shut down type situations).

Pick Up Lines: Speaking of the Jazz, Earl Watson (0.50) had his second really good game (out of 4) since filling in for the injured Devin Harris. Watson finished with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists in 33 minutes on the court. If you need a fill-in PG for the last couple weeks of the season Watson is probably the best you’ll come across (provided Devin Harris remains out). The only really bad game he’s had as a starter was the game the Jazz got blown out against Dallas this weekend.

Was I just talking about the Jazz? Right, Derrick Favors (0.93) had his first double-double off the bench for Utah with 11 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in 23 minutes. I’m not in love with Favors this season because he’s typically been getting less than 20 minutes a game off the bench, but with all the Jazz injuries at the moment, he’s at least worth a look in deeper leagues.

Is Jordan Crawford (0.91) really only owned in 36% of leagues right now? Crawford was a brutal 1-10 from three last night against the Jazz, but did take enough shots to score 25 points, with 5 rebounds and 4 steals. I do like some of the things that Crawford brings to the table, but the dude needs to calm down with the itchy trigger finger. Since joining the Wizards, he’s taking over 15 shots a game and is shooting 38% from the field. He’s also making 18% of his threes at over 4 attempts per game. I think it’s time his teammates staged a three-point intervention.

With Andre Blatche still injured and Trevor Booker missing last night’s game with a foot injury, rookie Kevin Seraphin (0.64) got 21 minutes of run for the Wizards and scored 6 points, with 8 rebounds and a couple of steals. The Wizards are running short on options thanks to all their injuries, but I’d want to see a repeat performance from Seraphin before picking him up.

Yes, I know there were some other games in addition to the Wiz/Jazz last night too. Spencer Hawes (0.62) scored 14 points and had a couple blocks for the Sixers. He’s actually been putting up some decent point/block numbers over his last 4 games – although I don’t know if I trust him enough to actually pick him up; and Brandon Bass (0.47) has been playing well lately for the Magic, with five double-digit scoring games in a row. His latest included 14 points (7-9 from the field) and 6 rebounds against the Knicks.

With the Spurs missing 4 of their starters last night, did anyone step up enough to be worth a short-term pickup (other than George Hill, who scored 27 points, but is owned in 50%+ of leagues)? Eh, no. Maybe Tiago Splitter (-0.19), who was the best of the fill-ins with 14 points and 9 boards in 28 minutes. James Anderson started for Ginobili and scored 5 points in 18 minutes, Matt Bonner had 6 points in the start at PF, and Gary Neal had 8 points on 3-14 shooting off the bench.

Biggest Loser: A mostly invisible game for Landry Fields (-0.74) against the Magic. Fields started, but managed only 3 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assist in 25 minutes on the court. Melo seems to have zapped Fields mojo in the month of March.
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Day 88 of 170: Bionic Commandos

Nels — Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:43:36 +0000

Line of the Night: The best part about the Spurs is that even though they play a slow game at only 93 possessions per, they can pick up the pace when they play teams like the Knicks (97) and still come away with the W. Tim Duncan (2.57) worked that fast pace for 21 points, 16 rebounds, 8 assists, and 5 blocks. The way he plays with such efficiency day in and day out, it’s almost like he’s a robot.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Martin (2.37) had his 3rd nice game in a row, so I hope his owners decided to put him in this week. Last night, he had 32 points (4 threes, 12-12 from the line), and 2 steals. With his injury history, he could use some bionicization.

Stephen Curry (2.25) led his Bionic Warriors into an overtime battle with 34 points (3 threes, 7-7 from the line), and 4 steals. Monta Ellis (0.92) shot terribly, but ended up with 28 points, 9 assists, and 3 steals, but – as was reported all over Twitter – injured his ankle with 23 seconds left in overtime. It’s the same ankle that has a bunch of metal stuff in it, so really, it should be fine since it’s kind of bionic, but he’s listed as every fantasy owner’s worst nightmare: Day-to-Day. And if he doesn’t play today, weekly owners have got a really tough decision to make.

Just when you thought Channing Frye‘s bionic targeting reticule (1.92) was only set to make 2-4 threes in a given game for the rest of the season, he rode 7 of them to 25 points, shooting 9-15 from the field and adding 8 rebounds.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Ryan Anderson (1.66) must have gotten some bionic upgrades in that Orlando-Phoenix trade. He almost doesn’t count for WWLotN since he’s owned in 44% of leagues (one of which is mine, thank goodness, cause Landry Fields is playing like crap this week). But if he is available, pick him up and ride his 21 points (4 threes), and 10 rebounds to waiver wire glory.

Pick Up Lines: Marcin Gortat (1.30) was the cavalry (that’s like a Cavalier, I guess) for the Suns last night when Vince Carter and Grant Hill were shooting like high schoolers. Gortat came off the bench to play 30 minutes, scoring 13 points (5-5 from the line), grabbing 14 rebounds, and getting 3 steals. Considering his minutes have been at 20 or less for a while, I wouldn’t pick him up until he gets one more good game on his log. He’s had 2 good ones in a row now, and maybe it just took him a while to get adjusted to the way the Suns play, or maybe it’s just a fluke.

DeJuan Blair (1.26) is like a poor Spur’s Tim Duncan with his 18 points (8-12 from the field), 13 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 blocks. He’s played 35 and 41 minutes the last two games, and if the Spurs feel that he is worthy of that kind of minutes (and it appears that he is) then go ahead and grab him after he plays 30+ in their next game.

Biggest Loser: Three days after beating down a beaten-down Heat, the Hawks couldn’t find the basket against the Hornets. The Raptors lost by 40 to the Magic, but with those two teams, it’s not that surprising. But for the Hawks to lose by 41, well, that’s kind of strange. The Biggest Loser Team Edition winners were led by Mike Bibby (-1.06) and his 0 points, 0 rebounds, and 1 assist.

Side Deal? What’s a Side Deal? If someone in your league dropped a mid-level player and the guy with the first waiver priority picked him up and then traded the team that dropped him another mid-level player for the worst player on their team, you might be suspicious, right? Or, I guess you’d probably be more like “Why didn’t they just trade those guys?” Well, if your league had a salary cap and trade rules that made it so they couldn’t make that trade, then you’d probably be like “They’re totally circumventing the cap rules!” I mean, the Mavs and Raptors couldn’t have at least waited a few weeks before making this trade? Really? It still would have been obvious, but maybe not quite so obvious. Of course, if everyone involved says they never talked to each, then, well, what can you do? Yell “Liar Liar Pants On Fire” and then play the rest of the season.

***

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Day 52 of 170: Melo Shows He’s Worthy of Being a Knick

Nels — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 14:38:11 +0000

Was it simple coincidence that the night after Amar’e hit a game winner just after the buzzer for the Knicks that Carmelo Anthony also hit a game winner that was taken away, or was it just further proof that Melo is destined to play for the Knicks. I think that next summer, he might as well one-up LeBron’s display of hubris and narcissism and make a whole reality show out of it as teams vie for his talents. Then the season finale would have him simply refuse to play for anyone but the Knicks.

Line of the Night: Meanwhile, Tim Duncan (2.92) showed that while he may be an old man, he can still play a mean game of ball. He had 28 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 blocks while going 12-18 from the field in that 1-point win against the Nuggets. I wonder if his teammates get tired of his stories that go off on tangent after tangent until they all forget what the point of the story was in the first place. Kind of like that joke. Which was about how old Tim Duncan is, but probably didn’t have as high a percentage from the field.

Honorable Mentions: There were a bunch of Celtics with nice fantasy lines including Ray Allen (1.93) who was as efficient as ever with 18 points (2 threes), 6 assists, and 4 steals; Kevin Garnett (1.80) double-doubling with 17 points and 14 rebounds, adding 2 steals and shooting a very nice 8-10 from the field; and finally, Paul Pierce (1.15) with another double-double, but with 15 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds.

Injury Interjection: Unfortunately for the Celtics, as Patrick first reported in his post on Yao Ming, Boston will be without Rajon Rondo for 1-2 weeks with a sprained ankle. That means (again, unfortunately for the Celtics) that Nate Robinson is a good pickup since he’ll be pretty much the only guy they have who can play the Point Guard position. And while Patrick says to pick him up if he’s available, as always: be sure you look at the numbers before picking him just because he’s a “must add” while Rondo is out. His 14 points, 5 assists, 2 threes, and 3 steals were very nice, but check his FG% and Turnovers before clicking that Add button.

Then there were the losing effort guys: Mike Bibby (1.36) trying to hang on to fantasy relevance with 11 points, 8 assists and 2 steals; Gilbert Arenas (1.22) had 19 points, 9 assists, 3 threes, and 2 steals as the Wizards lost to the Nets (whose best line was Kris Humprhies down at #12 on the night). Arron Afflalo (1.14) continued to pick up any slack in Chauncey Billups’ abscence with 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists; and Carmelo Anthony (1.01) scored 31 points (almost 33) with 9 rebounds.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: I can’t remember if we decided to lower the requisite ownership percent, but if we’re still at 50%, then Kirk Hinrich (0.99) wins it with 10 points, 6 assists, and 4 steals.

Next up would be Ty Lawson (0.96) who remains a good pickup for as long as Chauncey Billups is out. Lawson had 15 points and 7 assists, going 6-10 from the field.

And if I look at the list, the next name who’s not highly owned is Zaza Pachulia who I am NOT recommending you pick up. I just wanted to throw that out there as a non-recommendation, so you don’t pick him up based on one game where he played really well for 18 minutes.

Biggest Loser: Josh Smith (-0.59) wasn’t doing much to try to stop the Celtics, scoring 1 points on 0-8 from the field, with 4 rebounds and 3 assists. If you lose FG% this week with him on your team, that was probably what did it.

On Tap: After a fairly premium Thursday night, there’s actually some nice games coming up tonight. To wit: Miami in New York. Both super hot teams right now, and there’s going to be some awesome fantasy performances. I’m not fully prepared to Guaranshee™ anything of course, but it seems inevitable.

Utah at New Orleans promises to be nice as well. Even if it’s probably not going to deliver for fantasy (especially compared to Heat-Knickerbockers), that’s going to be some good basketball execution.

***

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Day 39 of 170: He’s not Dun. He Still Can.

Patrick — Sat, 04 Dec 2010 18:03:13 +0000

Line of the Night: The ride may be coming to an end, but Tim Duncan (2.82) still has a little bit of gas left in the tank. Going against Kevin Love and the Wolves, Duncan led the Spurs to a win with 22 points (on 9-14 shooting) with 10 boards, 5 assists and 4 blocks. He might not be putting up flashy lines every night, but Duncan is still the rock that supports the rest of the team.

Honorable Mentions: Nearly as good as Duncan was Kevin Love (0.97), who put up another sick 25 point and 18 board double-double. At this point if you own Love and aren’t at the top of the league in rebounds, you’re doing something wrong.

It seemed like Kevin Garnett (2.77) couldn’t miss against the Bulls last night – and he almost didn’t – going 7-11 from the field and 6-6 from the line on his way to 20 points, 17 rebounds and 6 assists. After two years of running around with knees held together by duct tape, it seems like KG finally has his legs healthy again.

Channing Frye (2.61) – who I was surprised to see is already owned in nearly 90% of leagues – is heating up for the Suns. He was 11-16 from the field, scoring 29 points and hitting 5 threes. He even added 3 blocks to remind you that he actually plays center.

Quick Hits: An encouraging game from Marc Gasol (2.31) – with 20 points, 7 rebounds 5 and 3 blocks. It was the first time he scored 20+ points in about a month; the obligatory Chris Paul (2.09) mention, he had 17 points and 10 assists; Kevin Martin (2.08) dropped 28 on the Grizzlies; and for one night at least the Magic were Vince Carter’s (2.01) team. He scored 25 with 9 assists against Detroit.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: If you haven’t bought in on Kyle Lowry (2.79) by now – and considering he’s only owned in one-third of leagues I’m guessing many of you didn’t – then the opportunity has just about passed with Aaron Brooks expected back on the court soon. Lowry had 28 points, 12 assists and 4 threes as the Rockets blew out the Grizzlies 127-111.

With Dwight Howard sitting out against Detroit with a stomach virus, Marcin Gortat (1.89) filled in without missing a beat. Gortat scored 14 points, adding 11 rebounds and 3 blocks in the start. His value will be short-lived, however, with Howard back as soon as Orlando’s next game.

Biggest Loser: Paul Westphal might want to find a safe house of some kind, because I think he killed Carl Landry (-1.01). Westphal replaced Landry in the starting lineup with Jason Thompson this past week in an attempt to kick start the stagnant Kings. The result has not been good for Landry, as he only saw 18 minutes on the court last night, finishing with 6 points and 2 rebounds. Both Erik and Nels recommended dropping Landry in our podcast this week, but I’d hold on to him for at least a few more games since Westphal likes to change lineups all the time.

On Tap: Miami heads home to face Atlanta in their first game after that awesome win in Cleveland. The other games today are mostly good teams playing bad teams, bad teams playing bad teams, and Houston playing at Chicago.

***

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Day 36 of 170: Bat-Manu Returns

Nels — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 14:43:42 +0000

I’m not sure if Manu looks more like Batman or The Penguin, though…

Line of the Night: Manu Ginobili (2.57) has somehow taken over the #1 spot on the GMTR Player Rater with his 27 point, 6 rebound, 3 three-pointer, and 5 steal performance. It helps that he was also 8-13 from the field, but I mean we had this guy as a comfortable late 4th/early 5th round pick. That said, I’m fairly certain his collective fantasy owners (and perhaps the real life ones too) are holding their breath to see how long he can keep this up. And even if he does manage to keep his #1 status through the fantasy regular season, if the Spurs still have the best record in the league, you can bet that Manu (and Tim Duncan) is going to miss some crucial fantasy playoff games. If you H2H owners expelled your breath with that figurative punch in the gut, good. I say trade Manu for a real first rounder any chance you can get. Roto owners can keep holding their breath.

Honorable Mentions: Danny Granger (2.44) beat up on Sacramento with 37 points, 7 rebounds, 3 threes, 2 steals, while going 12-19 from the field and 10-11 from the line. He’s up to #4 on the rater. Sitting at #23 on the Player Rater is Wilson Chandler (2.38) who had another awesome game with 27 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks, going 9-15 from the field and a perfect 8-8 from the line. Former #1 Pau Gasol (2.16) had 15 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks, and was 5-5 from the line. Good for fantasy owners, but his team still lost to Grizzlies by 2 points.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Glen “Still Calling Him Big Baby” Davis (1.27) is owned in 45% of leagues, which is actually about right considering his ranking of 151 on the Player Rater. Last night he pulled out the double-double action going 7-14 from the field for 17 point and 11 rebounds. He also blocked a shot. Just one. But, yeah.

Pick Up Lines: In shallow leagues, look at Beno Udrih (1.42) and his 24 points (9-12 from the field). I had Beno, and let me tell you, there’s a reason he’s only owned in 58% of leagues. Even that seems high…

You want someone available in a lot of leagues? How about Anthony Parker (1.07)? Last night he had a Biggest Loser worthy: 27.3% shooting, but one of those shots was a three, and he made all 6 of his free throws to end up with 13 points, 3 assists, 2 steals, and a block. At #159 on the player rater and a 5% ownership rater, he’s a much better “availability value” than Glen “Don’t Cry Like A Big Baby About Your Nickname” Davis.

With the Spurs holding the league’s best record, one guy you might want to watch is DeJuan Blair (0.82). He could start to see more PT if Tim Duncan’s minutes go down (though at 29 minutes a game right now, that’s pretty low already). Blair’s minutes have been inconsistent (and that’s an understatement like saying we told you to try to hang on to Matthews.

On Tap: Well, it’s still one more day before LeBron returns to Cleveland, so we’ll have to let the Heat ~~beat up on~~ play Detroit first.

The next best game (and perhaps one of the more “fantasy relevant” games) is Orlando at Chicago. C-Booz may make his first regular season appearance in a Bulls uniform, and while going up against a team with Dwight Howard at Center is not a great way to ease back in, I don’t think anyone in Chicago or with Carlos on their fantasy team wants any easing in.

Dallas – who is 13-4 – hosts Minnesota – sitting at 4-13 – so that’s kind of cool in a palendromic sort of way.

In The Bonus: Jason Thompson Et Al

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Tony Parker Wants To Be G-r-r-r-r-eat

Nels — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 21:31:13 +0000

(Get it? Tony the Tiger?)

Apparently Tony’s imitation of Tiger Woods cell phone use has led to Eva Longoria filing for divorce. You can read the Fantasy Basketbear’s fantasy analysis here, but really… come on you two! (Eva and Tony, not GMTR’s two readers)

a) Did Tony learn nothing about text messaging women who aren’t your wife? Did he just stick his head in the sand during the whole “Tiger Woods thing”?

b) Did Eva think that NBA players don’t cheat on their wives (probably) constantly? I mean, there once was a man named AC Green. He was a truly unique NBA basketball player.

c) Is one of the Spurs’ wives really hot? Because evidently there were hundreds of texts between Tony and this unnamed teammate’s wife. I know Richard Jefferson’s “not wife” was sort of good looking… And if someone married to Elin Nordegren is going to cheat with a bunch of skanks, someone married to Eva Longoria (who is, in my opinion at least one level below Elin), then Tony’s bar was probably not set all that high. Even then, I don’t think Tim Duncan’s wife is making the cut. Richard Jefferson’s ex-wife Teresa Lourenco definitely looks like cheating material… but she’s an ex-wife, so unless the reports are trying to help hide her identity, it’s not her.

That’s all I got. Oh, but I think Tony will definitely cool off fantasy-wise. I mean, he is already playing above his career numbers in every category so far this season. That would probably come down by itself, but I imagine that getting a divorce and a) going through all that drama or b) partying like the newly released bachelor he becomes is going to take it’s toll on Tony’s numbers either way. He was a Top 50 player in his prime, and is currently at #33 on the GMTR Fantasy Basketball Player Rater. I’m not saying he’s going to fall down to the 90-100 where he was projected, but I’m also not saying you shouldn’t try to sell him while he’s hot. Which is quite a coincidence since this week’s Fantasy Basketball Roundtable question was: “Who do you recommend selling high on?” and I couldn’t come up with a good answer before the deadline.

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Fantasy Basketball Preview: San Antonio Spurs

Patrick — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:44:24 +0000

This could be the final year of the Spurs as we’ve come to know and enjoy them lukewarmly. Tim Duncan is 34 years old. Tony Parker is in the final year of his contract. And it’s possible that Manu Ginobili’s body falls apart at any time given his style of play.

Enter the young guns. George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter and possibly even James Anderson are all about to become bigger parts of this team. Hill and Blair showed last season that they can step up when called upon, while Splitter and Anderson have the skills to do so. These young guys are giving Gregg Popovich a lot to think about in terms of the starting lineup and his rotation .

Da Spurs Depth Chart

PG Tony Parker, George Hill, Garrett Temple
SG Manu Ginobili, Gary Neal
SF Richard Jefferson, James Anderson, Alonzo Gee
PF Tim Duncan, DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner
C Tiago Splitter, Antonio McDyess

***

Guards

The Spurs have three positions more or less set in stone: point guard, small forward and power forward. Despite George Hill’s more than capable work last season, the Spurs’ PG spot belongs to Tony Parker (at least for now). Everyone’s favorite French PG was limited to 56 games last season due to injuries. He also had his worst statistical output since the 2003-04 season – with averages of 16 points, 5.7 assists, 0.2 threes and a pathetic 0.5 steals per game.

Parker has always been the type of player whose fantasy value relies heavily on his ability to put the ball in the hoop with great efficiency. That works ok when he is averaging 22 points per game (like he did in 2008-09) but not so great at 16 points per game. The good news is that Parker skipped the World Championships this summer to ensure that he enters the season healthy. Given that it’s a contract year, he’s a good bet to have a bounce back season and put up numbers in line or better than his career averages of 19 points and 6 assists. Just remember that fantasy scoring systems tend to look unkindly upon point guards who don’t shoot threes, get steals, or rack up mad assist numbers.

The Spurs could go three different ways with their starting SG position: George Hill, Manu Ginobili or yet-to-be-signed veteran X (aka, the Keith Bogans/Michael Finley/Bruce Bowen/Brent Barry/Robert Horry experience). The 24-year old George Hill is certainly the most exciting of those options. Hill stepped up big time in Parker’s absence last year, averaging 15.3 points, 3.6 assists and 1.1 threes a game in 43 starts. People who know things seem to think that the 6-2 Hill can be a passable defender against the league’s shooting guards. Given Popovich’s proclivity for bringing Ginobili off the bench, it’s not crazy to think that Hill could begin the year as the team’s starting SG (and end it as their starting PG after they trade away Parker. Kidding. Not really). Whether he starts or not, expect the Parker, Hill, and Ginobili backcourt to log a lot of minutes and for Hill to put up some nice scoring numbers this season.

Manu Ginobili has averaged 69 games a season over his 9-year career. That’s a lot of missed games for fantasy owners to deal with every year. However, it is impossible to not to love Manu, because when he’s on the court he’s dreamy – as last season’s 16.5 point, 4.9 assist, 1.8 three, 1.4 steal averages can attest (in only 28 minutes a game). As usual expect Ginobili to be injured for some of the year, and to either start or come off the bench for about 30 minutes a game with very good all-around numbers.

Forwards

Interestingly, Richard Jefferson decided to opt-out of the final year of his contract (and $15 million) after a disasterous first season with the Spurs. Even crazier was that the Spurs then resigned Jefferson for nearly $40 million. That’s a lot of dough for 12 points a game. Jefferson turned 30 this summer and the fact that he’s lost a step or two from his prime has really hurt his ability to get to the rim and score. Still, NBAPlaybook.com thinks that Jefferson has enough in the tank for a bounce back season, primarily based off the fact that he had an unusually bad three point shooting year that won’t be repeated again. Considering people aren’t going to be lining up to draft Jefferson this season, pick him up at the end of a draft if your fantasy team is in desperate need of some veteran leadership with low upside.

Tim Duncan. The Big Fundamental. Old Reliable. Mr. Gray Bush. Here are Duncan’s final per game fantasy ranks each of the past five seasons.

2005-06: 36
2006-07: 24
2007-08: 33
2008-09: 38
2009-10: 32

It doesn’t get much more consistent than that. People tend to fear that the Spurs are going to rest Duncan at the end of every season, but he did play in 78 games last year (as the Spurs were fighting for playoff position). The thing that really worries me about Duncan is the fact that he saw the lowest scoring (17.9), rebounding (10.1), block (1.5) and minute (31) output of his entire career. He basically maintained his fantasy value last season by significantly improving his free throw shooting. Duncan still has a couple of solid fantasy years left in him, but I see the age-based erosion in his stats continuing this season. When stories start being written about what great shape you’re in, it’s usually the beginning of the end. Have we learned nothing from Elton Brand?

Center

The Spurs could also go a few ways with the starting center position. Antonio McDyess manned that spot for them much of last season, but he’s 36 years old and has bad knees, so forget about him for fantasy purposes. Much more exciting is the Spurs’ 2007 draft pick Tiago Splitter. Rather than come directly into the NBA, Splitter has been in playing in Spain for the past few years. In 2010, Splitter was named MVP of the Spanish League, with averages of 15.7 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. He’s 6-11, has a solid game on both sides of the floor and can even run a little (courtesy of Pounding the Rock).

In the end, Splitter is probably the best fit alongside Duncan and is the Spurs center you should draft.

DeJuan Blair plays the game of basketball like a pit bull who has just been served up a 36-ounce steak. Basically, he uses every ounce of his 6-7, 280 lb frame to physically inhale rebounds. In games that Duncan sat last season, Blair was a certified man beast. For example, he had a 27 point, 23 rebound game in a start against Dallas on April 14th and a 28 point, 21 rebound performance against the Thunder on January 13th. The dude is simply a rebound machine.

In fact, the only reason why Blair is not a fantasy sleeper this season is Tim Duncan. Blair is undersized for the center position, so a starting combo of Duncan and Blair is probably not going to happen. Second, Blair does not have the type of offensive game that complements someone like Duncan. He doesn’t have a mid-range jumper; instead relying on put backs off rebounds and open looks off the pick and roll. And when Tim Duncan is on the floor, I doubt the Spurs want to be running pick and rolls with DeJuan Blair. So Blair has to be content filling in off the bench in a Paul Millsap like role for as long as Tim Duncan is still on the team. Blair will bust out for fantasy purposes eventually, but it won’t be this year unless Timmy D gets hurt.

The Rest of the Bench

The rest of the Spurs are going to have minimal fantasy value. Gary Neal could turn into a deadly three-point specialist for the team; Matt Bonner was a nice guy to have when the Spurs lacked depth in their frontcourt, now he’s way down on the depth chart; and James Anderson projects to be a sharp shooting wingman down the road.

So, for the guys we want to draft… Here’s your official GMTR Guidance (for a 12 team league):

Tim Duncan – 3rd
Manu Ginobili – 4th/although I’d like him much better in the 5th
Tony Parker – 8th/9th
George Hill – 9th/10th
Richard Jefferson – 13+
Tiago Splitter – 13+

Links
Erik and Michael de Leon of Project Spurs did a Spurs’ preview podcast
fBasketballBlog’s Spurs Team Report

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