Give Me The Rock

Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards After Party

Patrick — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 18:09:10 +0000

Nels handed out some fantasy hardware the other day with the GMTR fantasy basketball awards ceremony So consider this post the after party.

If you read GMTR, then you are probably aware that we post recaps every day that cover the best and the worst of previous day’s worth of games. Every day we hand out the line of the night (the best fantasy line of the night according to the GMTR player rater), waiver wire line of the night (best fantasy line among players with less than 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues) and biggest loser (the worst fantasy line among those with more than 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues).

We also kept a record of the best and worst lines on every single day, so that we could look back and summarize the year. The results end up being a very rough estimate of player value, but more interestingly, it points out players who overachieved (even for brief stretches of time) and some who crashed and burned this year.

So let’s get this party started.

Most Lines of the Night during the 2011-12 Season: LeBron James – 7

Kevin Love – 6
Kevin Durant – 5
Stephen Curry – 5
Chris Paul – 4
Josh Smith – 4

Kevin Durant may be our fantasy MVP, but LeBron does have him beat in one quirky stat this year. On 7 of the 124 days this season, James had the best fantasy game of the day. That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise since he did finish the year ranked #2 on the GMTR player rater. Durant, who was our MVP and #1 ranked player on the year, came in tied for third with 5 lines of the night this season.

A much bigger shock is that Stephen Curry had the best fantasy line on 5 separate days despite being limited to 26 games this year. All of his top lines came between day 2 and day 56 of the season and four of them came in a three week span between days 32 and 56. Oh, what Curry could have done this year if he actually had real ankles…

***

Best Line of the Year: Paul George (4.29 WARP) – Day 41, 2/3/12.

According to the GMTR player rater, George was the only player to deliver a daily WARP score of over 4 all season. On this night he dueled it out with Anthony Morrow of all people (it was the night where Morrow hit 8 threes and scored 42 points), but George came out ahead and had the best all-around game of the season with 30 points on 7-11 from three and 11-19 overall. He also added 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals, 1 block, 0 turnovers and was 1-1 from the line. It isn’t the most eye popping line we saw this year, but that is what you call an across-the-board 9-category contribution.

Kevin Love (3.93 WARP) – 3/25/12: 30 points, 21 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 blocks
James Harden (3.81 WARP) – 4/18/12: 40 points, 11-11 from the line, 5 threes, 7 rebounds, 4 steals
Kevin Durant (3.8 WARP) – 3/23/12: 40 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 threes, 3 steals

Best Player without a Line of the Night: Ryan Anderson (ranked #7 for the year on the player rater)

Anderson had a huge breakout season where he was a top 10 fantasy player on a per game basis by averaging 16 points, nearly 8 rebounds, and a league leading 2.7 threes a game. But the one thing he didn’t do this season is have the line of the night for any of the 61 games he played in.

However, it’s nothing to be worried about as it takes a good amount of luck as well as a good performance to end up as the top guy on any given night. For example, Anderson’s best game of the season came on 1/17/12 when he knocked down 7 threes on his way to 30 points against the Knicks. Unfortunately for him, Joe Johnson stole his thunder with a 27 point game and a box score filled with all kinds of stats. Anderson just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Worst Player to get a Line of the Night: Glen Davis (ranked #272 for the year on the player rater)

Ironically, Ryan Anderson’s teammate Davis did take home a line of the night on Day 101 despite finishing the year close to #300 on our player rater. Thanks to late season injuries from Dwight Howard and Anderson, Davis all of a sudden became one of the hottest players in the league at the tail end of the season (and probably helped decide a fantasy championship or two). On day 101, the Magic sat Howard, Anderson and Jameer Nelson and as a result Davis was free to jack up 22 shots against Detroit on his way to 31 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals and a block. Unless we count visits to the buffet table, it’s one of the only things where Glen Davis > Ryan Anderson.

Most Biggest Loser Nominations: Raymond Felton – 6

Michael Beasley – 4
Brandon Knight – 3
Carmelo Anthony – 3
Chris Bosh – 3
DeMar DeRozan – 3
Hedo Turkoglu – 3
Jamal Crawford – 3
Kevin Martin – 3
MarShon Brooks – 3
Tyreke Evans – 3

If you owned Raymond Felton this year, then it should come as no surprise to see him at the top of this list. Felton was atrocious for most of the season; he was so bad he even briefly lost his starting job to Jamal Crawford as the Blazers attempted to move him at the trade deadline. Pre all-star break, Felton was shooting 38% from the floor and averaging 10 points and 6 assists per game. It took a late season run to lift him up to #120 on our rater for the season with averages of 11.4 points, 6.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 41% shooting from the field. But fantasy owners stuck with Felton through the bad times; he was owned in a majority of fantasy leagues all season long.

Nastiest Line of the Year: DeMar DeRozan (-1.98 WARP) – Day 39, 2/1/12.

It’s only fitting that the worst line of the year belongs to one of the more disappointing fantasy players this season. Instead of building on a solid sophomore season, DeRozan went into the tank right from the start this year and finished at #177 on the player rater for the season. Nothing was worse than this line he put up against the Celtics on the first day of February: 8 points and 3 turnovers on 3-12 shooting from the floor and 2-5 from the line, with 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 threes, 0 steals and 0 blocks.

Marc Gasol (-1.91 WARP) – 2/5/12: 7 points, 3-14 shooting, 6 boards, 7 turnovers
Metta World Peace (-1.84 WARP) – 12/31/11: 0 points, 0-8 shooting, 4 turnovers
Gerald Wallace (-1.79 WARP) – 1/6/12: 1 point, 0-6 shooting, 4 turnovers

Most Waiver Wire Lines of the Night: Randy Foye – 4

Brandon Rush – 3
Courtney Lee – 3
Danny Green – 3
George Hill – 3
Gordon Hayward – 3
J.R. Smith – 3
Jerryd Bayless – 3
Luke Ridnour – 3
Marco Belinelli – 3

Having the most waiver wire lines is sort of like being the prettiest bearded lady at the carnival; it might be some sort of accomplishment, but it’s still not going to win many dates. Foye obviously got a big boost in fantasy value after Chauncey Billups went down for the year with a torn left Achilles tendon at the beginning of February. But despite finishing #59 on the rater over the last month of the season, fantasy owners clearly did not trust him as he was only owned in 42% of Yahoo leagues by the end of the year. Surprisingly, 2 of his 4 WWLotN came with Billups still in the lineup (Days 29 and 40). Day 29 came with CP3 out, so there is an explanation there, but Foye rocked it on Day 40 off the bench behind both Paul and Billups to finish with 17 points on 7-11 from the floor, 2 threes and 3 steals.

Waiver Wire Line of the Year: Kyle Korver (3.09 WARP) – Day 77, 3/10/12

Korver’s best game of the year by far came filling in for the injured Luol Deng at the beginning of March. Korver saw 39 minutes against the Jazz and finished with 26 points, hitting 6-11 from three and 10-16 overall, adding 7 rebounds, 6 assists and a steal and a block. The rest of his season was nowhere near as good (he finished ranked #153 by GMTR) but Korver had a few other decent fantasy moments here and there as Deng missed 12 games this season.

Rodrigue Beaubois (3.06 WARP) – 1/27/12: 22 points, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 blocks
Jodie Meeks (3.04 WARP) – 1/13/12: 26 points, 6-7 from three, 10-11 from the field, 2 steals
Landry Fields (3.04 WARP) – 1/31/12: 18 points, 4-6 from three, 5 rebounds, 5 steals, 0 turnovers

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Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards Ceremony

Nels — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 15:39:27 +0000

Good evening ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the annual Give Me The Rock 2012 Fantasy Basketball Awards (The Rockies? The Gimmes? Other suggestions? Leave a comment!). While a normal awards show would being with some sort of red carpet special, I have simply substituted something you’ll find just as entertaining (above). The show would then carry on with some sort of musical number by the host, but since this is just a written article that will have to wait for our video podcast (Ed. note: There will be no video podcast).

So, with that out of the way, let’s get on with it.

Most Valuable Fantasy Player: The debate for who had a better fantasy season is pretty much the same as it was for who to take with the first pick at the beginning of the season. Obviously the choice comes down to LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Unlike the start of the season, though, we now have 66 games worth of data with which to evaluate the two. According to Give Me The Rock’s Player Rater, Kevin Durant was the best fantasy basketball player of the 2011-12 season. The Player Rater is designed for Head-to-Head leagues, but for this case, it seems the results are applicable to Rotisserie leagues as well. If you look across the stats, Durant makes up for the categories where he lagged LeBron – Assists and Steals – with ones where he beat him handily (twice as many threes; 8 percentage points higher from the line; nearly a half a block per game more). He’s reliable, durable and plays a difficult position to fill. I’m sure we’ll be back to the same debate come September and October, but for now, Durant is the Most Valuable Fantasy Player. (For what it’s worth, this decision was unanimous between the three authors here)

Not sure if he’s happy or constipated

All-NBA Fantasy First Team: If you take out Durant, the All-NBA Fantasy First Team falls nicely into place with LeBron at SF, Chris Paul, #3 on the season, at PG, followed by Kevin Love at #4 taking up the PF position. The Center position is a bit of a surprise, but at #5, according to the Player Rater is Al Jefferson. Jefferson was drafted an average of 13th, so clearly fantasy owners knew this would be a good year for him, but he came through better than I think anyone could have expected with over 19 points, nearly 10 rebounds, high percentages (including 77% from the line; very good for a big man), and a remarkably low 1.1 turnovers per game. Finally, at #6, we slot Dwyane Wade at the SG position. Even though he missed a lot more games than the five guys above him, he played enough games and racked up enough stats that he deserves a spot on the fantasy first team with them.

Fantasy NBA Rookie of the Year: Another easy choice here: Kyrie Irving, ended up as the 33nd best fantasy player available making him the clear choice for ROY with nearly 19 points, 5.4 assists, 3.7 rebounds (from a point guard!), and 1 steal per game. Irving also shot nearly 47% from the field, which is pretty remarkable when you consider that he played for the Cavaliers who don’t really have a lot of guys to take the defensive heat off of him. He also shot 87% from the line, which is a very good sign of things to come. The only downside to his game was the 3.1 turnovers, but he’s a Point Guard, so high turnovers are to be expected, and consider he’s a rookie Point Guard at that, 3.1 turnovers really isn’t that bad. And yes, we all know that Erik has Irving in the GMTR Keeper League. Not sure if anyone could have possibly missed that. (And if anyone cares, my keepers are Marc Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and your choice of Jeff Teague, Mike Dunleavy, Alonzo Gee, Brandon Knight, and Kawhi Leonard. Yeah, thanks Landry Fields and Amir Johnson.)

Most Disappointing Fantasy Player: There’s a lot more room for debate when it comes to the Most Disappointing Player. Is it someone drafted high who ended up far below their average draft position? Is it someone drafted high who barely played because of injuries? Is it really fair to penalize someone just for getting injured? (Especially since owners should know who injury-prone players are and lower their expectations accordingly)

The first name that sprang to my mind was Dwight Howard, but perhaps my thoughts are overshadowed by his lengthy trade/extension controversy and his season-ending back surgery. Howard still played 54 games and ended up at #20 on the GMTR Player Rater on a per game basis. After dismissing that initial hypothesis, I moved on to Stephen Curry and forced myself to answer the question above of whether I should have known better than to draft Curry despite his first two seasons of 80 and 74 games; numbers which clearly contradicted the well-documented fragility of his ankle. Well, somebody had to draft him, but it didn’t have to be me, and to answer the question, yes, I should have known better. And anyone who drafted Curry should not be disappointed with the 26 games he played. They should be ashamed for having picked him in the first place. My cheeks are red.

So if we move on to guys who just didn’t perform and start from the top: Russell Westbrook dropped almost a full round from 12 to 23, but Monta Ellis dropped even further, going from 16 to 43. Westbrook underperformed, but still ended up as a second round player, while Ellis just couldn’t find his groove after the fairly shocking trade that sent him to Milwaukee. Maybe it was the cold weather, or maybe trying to co-exist on the court with Brandon Jennings was just too much to stomach. Either way, he still ended up only 27 spots below his average draft position and even though he played well alongside Stephen Curry in Golden State, I don’t think it’s right to fault him for something that he had no control over.

Strange how two of my top candidates are from the Warriors, because my selection for the actual Most Disappointing Fantasy Player is also from Golden State. Dorell Wright was drafted on average at #30, the middle of the third round, and ended up at 81, mid-seventh round. I was forced to tell people to keep hanging on to him week after week but things never got better. Wright managed a respectable 1.7 threes per game, but the rest of his game fell so far off the map that the Warriors were forced to cut his minutes from 38 to 27, and even that was overly generous.

Patrick wanted to go with Stephen Curry, but Erik seconded my motion for Dorell Wright, and so he is the winner. Or loser, I guess.

Best Fantasy Sleeper: On the opposite end of the spectrum of Dorell Wright is Ryan Anderson (another kind of unanimous choice depending on whether you think he’s the Most Improved or Biggest Sleeper). Granted, much of his success is due to the fact that he plays with Dwight Howard, who can draw five to ten players at a time on any given play. When the defense looks like a Lebanese league game it’s not hard to make a lot of three-pointers, and Anderson did, averaging a league leading 2.7 threes per game. He also grabbed 7.7 rebounds per game, made 88% of his free throws, and with so much catching and shooting, he kept his turnovers below 1 per game. All of that adds up to a place at #7 finish on the Player Rater – a full 111 spots above his average draft position. No one else in the Top 10 can claim that kind of jump, and in the Top 50, only Ersan Ilyasova even comes close. He was nominated/mentioned by both Erik and Patrick as well, but since he ended up just barely in the Top 50, I think that Ryan Anderson deserves all the praise and glory. And he also deserves Erik’s question: Is he for real? Or will he be next season’s Dorell Wright?

Speaking of Erik… He had a few additional categories and/or highlights (Patrick did as well, we’ll get to that). But first, a quick commercial break! (I mean, what kind of award show is it without a few commercials?)

Give Me The Rock now has a merchandise store where you can buy merchandises. There is only one merchandise currently available, but when Erik saw it, he immediately asked if they shipped to the Phillipines. I have ordered one of these in Bulls #SeeRed, but it’s designed to look good in Celtics Green, Laker Yellow, Nuggets Sky Blue, Hornets Turquoise, Knickerbocker Orange, Raptor Purple, Bucks Green, Timberwolves or Magic Royal Blue, Doo Doo Brown, Home Team White, Dark Gray, and Generic Gray. There’s a couple other colors too, but I’d recommend one of those.

And we’re back!

Saddest Story: Retirement due to injury of Brandon Roy, which is closely followed by waiving of Greg Oden. Poor Portland. (Ed note: Also, trading Marcus Camby… and just totally giving up. Maybe they’ll get another #1 pick to throw away.)

Three players to watch next season: Greg Monroe, Paul George, Nic Batum. You can see a little bit of George in the playoffs this season as he helped the Pacers move up to the #3 seed in the East. Hopefully they can dispatch with Orlando and then beat up on the Heat as much as they flagrantly fouled the Bulls in last year’s playoffs. Oh, sorry. The playoffs are the time for “hard” basketball and “tough” defense. That makes it okay to take off people’s heads and not get a foul call.

Pleasant Surprise of the Season: Kobe’s come back form.

Three Players Erik has tagged with “Caveat Emptor” going into next season: Stephen Curry, Eric Gordon, and Blake Griffin (because Poster Child will be the most overvalued player next season). I second that.

Now for Patrick’s unrated director’s cut:

Sleeper of the Year: Ersan Ilyasova, with a nod to Nikola Pekovic. Pek ended up at #119, so I don’t think he’s up there with Ryno or Ersan, but he did step up and play well and if not for Ricky Rubio’s injury, Pekovic might have been the key to helping Kevin Love finally get to the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka. I forgot about this one, but yeah, a pretty obvious choice. Ibaka averaged 3.7 blocks per game, including 4.6 blocks over the last 16 games of the season.

Waiver Wire Player of the Year (best player to spend most of the year on the wire): Brandon Rush

Biggest Injury of the Year: Eric Gordon

Most Linsane Player of the Year: Jeremy Lin (I can’t wait to see who wins this one next year!)

Biggest “we told you so” from GMTR: Spencer Hawes. He might have finished the season well ahead of our projected 199 (he was at 87), but if you didn’t at least try to sell him after the first week you were in for some major hurt and frustration.

Biggest Miss in the GMTR Preseason Rankings: Patrick says Al Jefferson, but I think he’s being a little hard on himself. We had Jefferson at #16 in our 12/23 rankings, so the fact that he ended up at #5 I don’t think makes him a big miss. Just a bit underestimated.

Surprise of the Season: Brandon Jennings, now one of the league’s best fantasy PGs? Can’t argue with #15 overall. Too bad the owner who kept him in the Keeper League also kept Stephen Curry. There’s the light and the dark side of the force right there.

Three players to watch next season: Derrick Favors, Kenneth Faried, Charles Jenkins

That’s all we got for you for now… Congrats to the winners and better luck next time to all the losers. That applies to the players and the owners. Perhaps more so to the owners since the players at least have a real playoff after the regular season.

And here’s a real commercial that was shown during a real awards show:

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Day 124 of 124: Anybody Home?

Nels — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 13:18:06 +0000

When it’s the morning after the last day of regular season basketball, and the stats aren’t loading, and everyone’s rested their main guys last night anyway, and I haven’t gotten together with Patrick and Erik for our End of Year Awards yet… all I’m left with is a playoff preview… If it’s interesting to me, hopefully it’ll be interesting to you too.

I’m going to these cutesy/clever nicknames for the conferences even though I don’t think they’re really applicable. Though I do believe that if the Bulls somehow make it to the Finals, they are capable of beating whoever comes out of the West. Perhaps more so than I think the East will still win if Miami makes it. That said, I still think Miami will make it. Oops… Spoiler Alert!

Beastern Conference

Bulls vs. 76ers

Yeah, I’m going to start with my home team, but they do have the overall best record (after the tie-break with San Antonio). Even with Derrick Rose still rounding back into form, the Bulls will take this one. I’m glad that Evan Turner wanted to play the Bulls instead of the Heat. If I were a lower seed, I’d probably rather play the Bulls too, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. Of course, as a Bulls fan, I was also hoping that they’d get to play Philly, because they’re an easier matchup than the Knicks. So, take that Evan Turner.

Bulls in 5.

Heat vs. Knicks

I’m really not sure if the Knicks even take one in this series. I’ll give it to them just based on Miami’s lack of mental toughness and their Center position. Tyson Chandler should dominate, but it won’t be enough.

Heat in 5

Pacers vs. Magic

Poor Magic. I feel bad for the rest of the guys on the team to have to deal with Dwight’s drama all season and then lose him two weeks before the playoffs. Glen Davis says he’s going to play, and who would have ever thought that saying something like that would carry such weight? Still…

Pacers in 5.

Celtics vs. Hawks

This is probably the closest matchup in the East (which makes sense because it’s the middle seeds), but with Garnett and Rondo rested and Pierce seeming to be the same player he always is, the Hawks just don’t have enough to take it. They’re still very undisciplined (if Josh Smith had an Indian name it would be “Settles For Jumpers”) and they are still stuck with Joe Johnson’s contract (which basically formed a straight-line cause-and-effect to the lockout) and they aren’t supposed to get Al Horford back unless they make it to the second round (see you next year Al).

Celtics in 5.

Lesstern Conference

Spurs vs. Jazz

The Jazz are good, and the Spurs have a history recently of being vulnerable in the first round. But Utah just doesn’t quite have all the pieces yet. Their front court of Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors is pretty intimidating, though, and even Gordon Hayward seems like he might have more of an impact than I think anyone really thought he could. Perhaps with another year or two of playoff experience (and playing together experience) and a better Point Guard they could beat this Spurs team.

Spurs in 6.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Too bad for the Mavs their attempt at a repeat ends here. I’m sure Mark Cuban did his fancy analysis and determined that the guys he has should have played better than they did, but losing Tyson Chandler left them with a much bigger hole than I’d ever thought Tyson Chandler would leave. And of course, the Thunder just continued to get better.

Thunder in 5.

Lakers vs. Nuggets

Maybe the second most interesting series of the whole playoffs. The Lakers are good… but very vulnerable. The Nuggets aren’t as good as they maybe could have been, but they’re still pretty good. Their team is finally all there, and while they don’t have anyone on the level of Kobe, Pau, or Bynum, they do have one of the deeper teams in the league. And the Lakers will be without Ron Artest for most (if not all) of the series. It’s one of only two real toss-ups in my mind, but I feel like if the Nuggets can get up 2-1 then they’ll take it in 6. If they get down 2-1, then Lakers in 6. Which is more likely? I’ll put my money down on Denver.

Nuggets in 6.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers

This is certainly going to be the most closely contested first round match-up. Each team won its home games, so the fact that it went 2-1 LA probably just means it would have been 2-2 if they’d played one more in Memphis. Since Memphis earned home court advantage with their win over the starter-less Magic last night, I’m going to say the trend continues. Both teams are still young and will probably not have the strength or discipline to stand up to the other team’s home crowd.

Grizzlies in 7.

And now that the stats are updated, here’s our regularly scheduled program called This Is Why Your Leagues Should End Before The Last Two Weeks of the Season (in which the stars of your regularly scheduled program have been replaced by a bunch of no-name actors; e.g., if Billy Baldwin replaced Alec on 30 Rock’s LIVE episode, or if Parks & Rec replaced Amy Poehler with Kristin Wiig… no, wait, that would be equally good… How about if Person of Interest replaced Michael Emerson with someone who wasn’t from LOST… no, the old people watching CBS wouldn’t know the difference… How about if the Secret Circle replaced… no… that won’t work at all…).

***

Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Patrick Mills (2.70) scored 34 points (4 threes), with 5 rebounds, and 12 assists. I mean, come on. I’m not even going to comment on this…

Honorable Mentions: Only two guys out of the Top 10 lines last night were from guys over 50% ownership: Josh Smith (1.67), whose Hawks were still trying for home court advantage, had 23 points (10-14 from the field), 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Marc Gasol (1.62) had 22 points (8-13 from the field, 6-6 from the line), 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

Then we get to The Replacements.

Pick Up Lines: Ben Gordon (2.58) exploded as Detroit rocked the 76ers. Gordon had 26 points (8 threes, 9-13 from the field), and 5 assists (44% owned), and while I didn’t see the game and I’m not going to bother to look at the box score, I’m going to say that Philly basically threw this one so they could play the Bulls instead of the Heat. And the Bulls will make them pay.

Speaking of the Bulls, how about that John Lucas (2.03) guy? He had another 25 points (3 threes, 10-16 from the field), 4 assists, and 2 steals (2% owned). While the Bulls need a Shooting Guard from the draft this year, I kind of hope they take a Point Guard just so they can get rid of Lucas. He’s a decent basketball player, I just have to cringe way too much when I watch them and he’s in.

Jason Thompson (1.85) finished out a strong season with 17 points (7-11 from the field), 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (40% owned). I think he’ll probably be rated high enough going in to next season that he’ll start off at higher than 40%.

And I think this might be a first… 3 guys with 0% ownership make the list: Jeremy Evans (1.83) with 13 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks (0% owned); Chris Wright (1.71) with 25 points (11-14 from the field), 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks (0% owned); and Ben Uzoh (1.68) with a triple-fucking-double of 12 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists, and 4 steals (0% owned).

Biggest Loser: Yeah, it seems appropriate that Michael Beasley (-1.06) makes it down here with 13 points, 1 rebounds, 1 assists, and 4 turnovers. It’s not his first time and it probably won’t be his last.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Top 50 Fantasy Basketball Keepers for 2012

Patrick — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 19:20:46 +0000

This is GMTR’s top 50 long-term keeper list for fantasy basketball keeper leagues. It is based on a player’s estimated fantasy value over the next five seasons. I wrote up the summaries a few games before the end of the season, so the final end of the season stats may differ slightly from the ones presented below.

A quick note about this list. It’s tough enough to predict player value for next week, never mind five years from now. Any long-term keeper list needs to balance experience (and predictability) with youth and potential. Therefore, this list trends more towards experience than one might expect because those are the players were can more accurately predict (or at least that is what I tell myself). A player like Tristan Thompson could easily blow up over the next few years, or he could end up as the next Tyrus Thomas. Because the career path of a very young and unproven player like Thompson is unpredictable, it is difficult to recommend him as a high value keeper at this point in his career.

Similarly, given the long term time horizon of many keeper leagues, it’s silly in a way to rank players so specifically. Like this guy is ranked #23, so he’s definitely a better keeper than the guy who is listed #30. Given how fuzzy all of this is, a better way to do it might be to create keeper tiers, or groups of players that have similar keeper value to each other. That will be my next project, because the NBA off season is just a time to write even more about fantasy basketball.

Give Me The Rock’s top 50 (ish) keepers.

Player (Age) / Position / Team
1. Kevin Durant (23), SF, OKC: The #1 fantasy player in the league according to the GMTR player rater and still only 23 years old. The league’s top keeper by far.

2. LeBron James (27), SF, MIA: At 27, James is right at that point where NBA players typically stop getting better. But LeBron is a freak of nature and has plenty of top 5 fantasy seasons ahead of him.

3. Kevin Love (23), PF, MIN: Love has taken the fantasy combination of points, boards and threes to the next level, averaging 26 ppg, 13.4 rpg and 1.9 tpg this season. At 23, he still has room to improve.

4. Chris Paul (26), PG, LAC: Paul has been the league’s top PG since his third year in the league and if his first season with the Clippers is any indication, he’ll continue to be for at least the next few years.

5. Derrick Rose (23), PG, CHI: Rose’s fourth year was a letdown as various injuries (and Tom Thibodeau) limited him to fewer than 40 games. Expect a bounce back year next season with averages of at least 25 points and 8 assists a game.

6. Russell Westbrook (23), PG, OKC: One troubling development is that he saw his assists drop from 8.2 his third year in the league to 5.4 this season. It’s tough to complain about anything else, though. Has yet to miss a game his four years in the league.

7. Kyrie Irving (20), PG, CLE: As a (mostly) 19 year old, Irving averaged 18.6 points, 5.6 assists and 1.4 threes a game. He’s been a top 5 fantasy PG this season and could easily be a top 3 PG’s next year.

8. Dwight Howard (26), C, ORL: In between the on-again off-again trade demands and the feuding with SVG, Howard put up 20.6 ppg, 14.5 rpg and 2.1 bpg before bowing out with a herniated disk in his back. In roto leagues, drop him down a few (dozen) pegs due to the horrific FT%.

9. LaMarcus Aldridge (26), PF, POR: Remember when Greg Oden was supposed to be the Blazers’ franchise player? In this reality, Aldridge has become that guy for the Blazers, averaging nearly 22 points and 8 rebounds a game.

10. Al Jefferson (27), C, UTA: Big Al lived up to his nickname, taking a step forward this season averaging 19.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg and 1.7 bpg. Current #5 overall on the GMTR player rater.

***

11. Josh Smith (26), PF, ATL: Smith feels like he should be older than 26 since he’s been in the league for eight seasons. But he’s still fairly young and is averaging a 19 and 10 so far this year. Might decline a bit with Al Horford back next season.

12. Kyle Lowry (26), PG, HOU: A bacterial infection put the breaks on his top-10 fantasy season, but Lowry does everything on the court except block shots and he’s a very good rebounder for a PG.

13. Deron Williams (27), PG, NJN: The big question is will he stick around with the Nets? One of the few players in the league capable of averaging 20 points and 10 assists a game, but has missed 10+ games 3 of the past 4 years.

14. Brandon Jennings (22), PG, MIL: Breakout season in 2011-12 as he’s found a way to increase his FG% up to respectable levels. However, he and Monta Ellis are still trying to find a way to co-exist together.

15. Andrew Bynum (24), C, LAL: Knee problems might not be gone for good, but Bynum played in 59 games so far this season on his way to nearly 19 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks a game. His role will only grow as Kobe gets older, unless the Lakers blow it all up.

16. James Harden (22), SG, OKC: Not only owns the best facial hair in the NBA, but has one sweet shot – averaging 49% from the field and 84% from the line this season. What more do you want? Oh yeah, he’s still only 22.

17. DeMarcus Cousins (21), C, SAC: Not exactly the safest keeper option since he’s repeatedly shown he’s still very immature, but you can’t deny the numbers he puts up – 17.6 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 1.2 bpg – as a 21 year old.

18. Paul George (21), SF, IND: Given a chance to start, Paul is averaging a roto friendly 12 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.6 spg, and 1.4 tpg in only 29 minutes. At 21, he should continue to improve. A lot.

19. Greg Monroe (21), PF, DET: He slowed down a bit as the season wore on, but Monroe still averaged 15.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg and 1.2 spg his sophomore season with great percentages for a big man.

20. Ricky Rubio (21), PG, MIN: Averaged over 8 assists and 2 steals a game as a 21 year old, and should be able to improve on that next season. His shooting (36% from the floor) ended up being as bad as advertised.

21. Blake Griffin (23), PF, LAC: He doesn’t block a ton of shots due to his tiny arms and the Dwight Howard-esque FT% doesn’t help his game, but pencil in at least 20 points and 11 rebounds a game for the next decade. Long live Lob City.

22. Rudy Gay (25), SF, MEM: Started the year off slowly, but worked his way back to the Rudy Gay-type numbers we all expected from him.

23. Carmelo Anthony (27), SF, NYK: Like a lot of other players, Melo started off the season slowly, but has heated up to an insane degree, working his way up to #5 on the GMTR player rater over the past month averaging over 27 ppg.

24. John Wall (21), PG, WAS: Wall’s career hasn’t exactly taken the path that many people expected, as he’s averaging more turnovers and less assists this year than in his rookie season. But Wizards haven’t given Wall much to work with this year. Things will get better for him.

25. Ryan Anderson (23), PF, ORL: Broke out in a big way this season by averaging 2.7 threes a game to go along with 16 points and 8 rebounds. Just hope he’s not destined to be a one year wonder

26. Nicolas Batum (23), SF, POR: After taking over as a starter for the Blazers in February, Batum averaged 15 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 tpg and 1 bpg. While there is debate on whether he’ll become a star, his game perfectly lends itself to category based fantasy leagues.

27. Stephen Curry (24), PG, GSW: Has the talent to be one of the best players in the league, but will his ankles allow it? Missed 40 games this season with approximately 85 ankle sprains; ankle surgery will keep him out the next 3-4 months.

28. Serge Ibaka (22), PF, OKC: Started off so slowly fantasy owners were thinking about dropping him, but will finish the season averaging over 3.5 blocks a game (and 4.5 over the last month). If you are looking for blocks, Ibaka is your man.

29. Ty Lawson (24), PG, DEN: Made the jump this season as the Nuggets’ full time starting PG. Won’t blow you away in any one category, but has very good scoring, assist, three, steal and percentage numbers.

30. Mike Conley (24), PG, MEM: One of the league’s best steals guys (at 2.2 a game) to go along with some fairly decent all around numbers. Has also been one of the more durable players in the league over the last few years.

31. Paul Millsap (27), PF, UTA: Not quite as young as you’d expect, also has Derrick Favors breathing down his neck and could be traded. But averaged a career best 8.7 boards and 1.8 steals a game to go along with great percentages.

32. Al Horford (25), C, ATL: Missed nearly all of 2011-12 season with a torn pectoral muscle. He’s also hit a plateau as a fantasy player, 15 points, 9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game seems to be his ceiling.

33. Danny Granger (28), SF, IND: Granger isn’t exactly young anymore and his stats slid for the third year in a row. He might be on the Joe Johnson career path.

34. Marcus Thornton (24), SG, SAC: One of the few people who can say a trade to the Kings was the best thing that happened to his career, averaging 19 points, 2 threes and 1.4 steals a game his first full year with the team.

35. Eric Gordon (23), SG, NOH: It’s not an encouraging sign that he was limited to 9 games so far this season after missing 26 games last season. Still, his upside is off the charts as a potential 25 ppg scorer.

36. Luol Deng (26), SF, CHI: A three point shot took his fantasy game to the next level last season. Has proven he’s “Kobe tough”, but his game seems to have peaked around the top 40′s as a fantasy player

37. Roy Hibbert (25), C, IND: Bonus points for being one of the more durable centers in the league despite not always looking the part of an athletic big. He’s also made slow and steady improvements in his game the past two years and should continue to get better.

38. Monta Ellis (26), SG, MIL: A shaky start with the Bucks, but he’s bounced back somewhat to average 18 points and 6 assists a game with his new team. He’s currently averaging 1 less three a game now than his time with the Warriors.

39. Marc Gasol (27), C, MEM: Bounced back from last season’s down year thanks to Zach Randolph being (mostly) out of the lineup. But will he regress again next year?

40. Rajon Rondo (26), PG, BOS: There are a lot of things that Rondo doesn’t do as a fantasy player, but he’s the top assist guy in the league (at 11.6 per game) and brings nice steal numbers as well. However, there is uncertainly around what will happen to the Celtics.

41. Dwyane Wade (30), SG, MIA: Had trouble staying healthy in his 20′s – so his 30′s probably won’t work out so well. Still, his stats – 22 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.6 apg, 1.7 spg – are the best in the league from a SG.

42. Danilo Gallinari (23), SF, DEN: With Wilson Chandler in China, Gallinari put his stamp on the Nuggets SF spot. However, his 14.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.4 threes didn’t show any improvement from last season.

43. Andre Iguodala (28), SG, PHI: Another one of those guys who has probably peaked as a player and has seen his stats decline from his peak of a few years ago.

44. Tyreke Evans (22), PG, SAC: It’s possible that we’ve seen the best of Tyreke during his rookie season as he’s regressed each of the past two years. But at least he’s still young.

45. Andrea Bargnani (26), C, TOR: Missed over 30 games this season by injuring the same calf over and over again. In between, he averaged 19.5 points, 1.1 threes and shot 87% from the line.

46. Marcin Gortat (28), C, PHO: Since his trade to the Suns, Gortat has been one of the best pure centers in the league, averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 56% from the field

47. Brook Lopez (24), C, NJN: Not a good sign that he was limited to 5 games this year. But Lopez is a legitimate 20 ppg scorer with very good percentages who is still only 24 years old. He’s still one of the worst rebounding centers in the league though

48. Pau Gasol (31), PF, LAL: Despite being the oldest player on the list, Gasol still averaged numbers right in line with his career stats (17.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 50% from the field)

49. Jrue Holiday (21), PG, PHI: His performance actually took a step backwards his third season in the league, but he’s still incredibly young and will improve. Right?

50. Klay Thompson (22), SG, GSW: Since becoming a starter, Thompson has averaged 18.9 points and 2.3 threes per game. Let’s just hope he doesn’t go all Dorell Wright on us next season.

Bonus! 51. Ersan Ilyasova (24), SF, MIL: Will Ilyasova be a one-hit wonder? Was a top-50 player over the second half of the season while averaging nearly 9 rebounds a game.

Just missed the cut: Jeff Teague, PG/ATL (23), Wesley Matthews, SG/POR (25), Kobe Bryant, SG/LAL (33), Kemba Walker, PG/CHA (21), Joakim Noah, C/CHI (27), Brandon Knight, PG/DET (21), Jeremy Lin, PG/NYK (23), Dirk Nowitzki, PF/DAL (33), Amare Stoudemire, PF/NYK (29), Chris Bosh, PF/MIA (28), Gerald Wallace, SF/NJN (29), David Lee, PF/GSW (28), Kenneth Faried, PF/DEN (22), Marshon Brooks, SG/NJN (23), Iman Shumpert, PG/NYK (21), Tony Parker, PG/SAS (29), Wilson Chandler, SF/DEN (24), Spencer Hawes, C/PHI (23), Zach Randolph, PF/MEM (30), Isaiah Thomas, PG/SAC (23), Tyson Chandler, C/NYK (29), JaVale McGee, C/DEN (24), Kawhi Leonard, SF/SAS (20), Thaddeus Young, SF/PHI (23).

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Day 123 of 124: DNP: Rest

Patrick — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 11:25:03 +0000

Day 123 provides us with plenty of examples of why you should not run your H2H fantasy league to the very end of the season. The Sixers, Spurs and Bucks basically sat their entire starting lineups last night. Stars who are even remotely hurt will sit out the final games – Danny Granger, Chris Paul and Andre Iguodala all sat with injuries. And stars that do play will often get the early curtain call, like Steve Nash and Kyrie Irving did last night. It all makes for a mess in the final days of the season.

Line of the Night: Except we can always count on the Thunder. OKC played their final game of the regular season last night and were led by Russell Westbrook (3.43), who scored 30 points, adding 6 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals and 4 blocks in a loss to the Nuggets. Westbrook finishes the year ranked at #22 on the GMTR player rater, which is about 15 spots lower than what we had him projected at going into the year. The drop can solely be attributed to his assist numbers, which dropped from 8.2 per game last season to 5.5 this season. While I appreciate the 24 ppg this year, just remember that you’re a PG Westbrook.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Durant (1.79) locked up his fantasy MVP case with a strong game to finish out the year. He had 32 points, with 5 threes, 5 rebounds and 4 assists while playing a team high 40 minutes. Serge Ibaka (0.98) blocked another 4 shots on the night to finish the season averaging 3.7 blocks per game (and 4.7 over the past month). Defensive Fantasy Player of the Year! If such a thing existed.

J.J. Redick (2.26) took advantage of the Charlotte Bobcats to score 31 points, hitting 6-10 from three. Ryan Anderson (1.84) chipped in 24 points and 13 rebounds in his bid to take home the league’s most improved player award. The Magic had an unfortunate injury in this game however thanks to the giant feet of Byron Mullens, but more on that below.

John Wall (2.16) dropped 21 points, with 7 rebounds, 13 assists and 7 steals in his “remember what I can do” game for draft day next season. His 6 turnovers are what prevent him from actually taking home a fantasy line of the night. Wall was second in the league (behind Deron Williams) with 3.9 turnovers a game this season, which isn’t great, but Kevin Durant, Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo are 3, 4 and 5 on the list, which is not bad company to be in.

J.R. Smith (2.10) ended the season on fire, with a two week WARP value of 1.16, or top 15 player material. His 21 points, 3 threes, 5 assists and 4 steals also gives him 12 steals over his last three games.

Brandon Jennings (1.82) continues to play like a top 15 fantasy player with 19 points, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 blocks in a loss to the Sixers’ B-team. The entire Bucks’ starting lineup with the exception of Jennings sat in this one, but that did not appear to affect Jennings one bit.

Ty Lawson (1.59) helped the Nuggets move up to the seventh seed in the West with a 25 point, 3 three, 5 rebound, 2 steal performance in a win over the Thunder. The GMTR keeper list is going to be published shortly, and I think Lawson fairs pretty well on it.

CP3 sat out against the Knicks to rest up his groin strain, but Blake Griffin (1.35) carried a lot of the load with 29 points, 10 boards and 6 assists. Of course, he also shot 7-14 from the line, so the dude needs to spend a little less time making KIA commercials and a little more time at the free throw line this summer. The Clippers also got a huge game from…

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: With Chris Paul sitting out of the Clippers final game against the Knicks, Randy Foye (2.10) got the opportunity to (go) H.A.M. with 28 points – shooting 4-12 from three – with 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals while playing 43 minutes. The Clippers are done for the season and do not play today, so my expert advice would be to not pick him up for today’s set of games.

Pick Up Lines: Some players who do play again today include Jodie Meeks (1.90), who scored 27 points and hit 3 threes for a Sixers team that sat Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams. Consider Meeks a good bet to put up similar numbers tonight as those guys will likely all sit again.

His teammate Evan Turner (1.43) scored a career high 29 points, adding 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 blocks while playing a team high 41 minutes. Turner, like Meeks, should get plenty of run tonight in the Sixers game against Detroit.

With the entire Bucks’ starting rotation sitting with the exception of Brandon Jennings (and Ekpe Udoh only getting 14 minutes due to knee soreness), Larry Sanders (1.39) saw 32 minutes off the bench to finish with 12 points, 4 steals and 5 blocks. This came after he was suspended for two games after an on the court altercation with the Pacers last week. Scott Skiles didn’t know after the game who on his team would be available tonight against the Celtics, but I’d guess that Sanders will be in for some extended run again tonight.

The Bucks’ forward Tobias Harris (1.09) – got a rare start and did his best Ersan Ilyasova impersonation with 15 points and 13 rebounds while playing a season high 37 minutes. He’s another Bucks’ player who is likely to see a lot of minutes in tonight’s game.

Patty Mills (1.18) dropped 27 points and 5 assists in a start for the Spurs, who (surprise, surprise) rested Parker, Duncan and Ginobili. All are expected to miss tonight’s season finale against the Warriors, meaning that Mills makes a strong start again tonight. Tiago Splitter (1.18) scored 26 points in only 20 minutes off the bench, although it’d be difficult for him to maintain that type of per game production two games in a row.

Derrick Brown (0.90) finished with 16 points, 5 boards and a couple steals in another start for the Bobcats. He could have some deep league value again tonight as the Bobcats play the Knicks. Bismack Biyombo (0.49) has now blocked at least 2 shots in his last 8 games and is a guy to play if your team needs some blocks on this last night of play.

With Kyrie Irving unlikely to play in the Cavs final game tonight, it means that Donald Sloan (-0.17) – with 8 points and 7 assists yesterday – is back in play again. In fact, the Cavs entire B team, including guys like D.J. Kennedy and our old friend Luke Walton will probably get some good run tonight against the Bulls.

Biggest Loser: I sat Glen Davis (-0.71) last night in my roto league because I am trying to break a tie in the FT% category and Davis has shot 68% from the line this season. Well, Davis of course went 2-2 from the line last night against the Bobcats, but that’s the only good news he had in this game. Davis sprained his ankle after stepping on the foot of Byron Mullens and had to leave the game after 9 minutes, finishing with 2 points, 1 rebound and 0 assists.

Andre Miller (-0.33) got 21 minutes off the bench for the Nuggets and finished with 5 points and 6 assists on 2-7 shooting from the field.

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Day 122 of 124: Chris Paul Makes a Run At Fantasy MVP

Nels — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 10:37:11 +0000

or: The Heat hand over home court advantage to the Bulls and Celtics

Line of the Night: Chris Paul (2.87) is trailing LeBron and Kevin Durant by a lot in the race for Fantasy MVP – according to the Give Me The Rock Player Rater, but his 34 points (4 threes, 10-11 from the line), 5 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 steals solidify his Bronze Medal spot ahead of that fresh-faced kid from Minnesota.

Honorable Mentions: Of course, Kevin Durant (2.28) held Paul and LeBron with his 32 points (3 threes, 15-16 from the line), 9 rebounds, and 2 steals. Of course (x2), LeBron sat out the Heat’s second-to-last game along with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, so he had no chance to get 30+ points, 3-4 threes, above average (for him) free throw shooting, nor 2 steals. DeMarcus Cousins (1.33), going against Durant and the Thunder, showed that he wanted a place in last night’s 30 Points and 2 Steals Club with 32 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 steals.

Al Jefferson (1.87), meanwhile, shored up his 5th place finish with a nice double-double of 18 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. I’m pretty sure I can see the Top 5 draft picks for next year… Paul Millsap (1.64) isn’t one of them, but his Top 10 finish (most likely) after another 26 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals makes him an intriguing candidate for next year… Will he be first round material again? Hard to say…

Joe Johnson (1.66) had 28 points (6 threes), and 7 rebounds while teammate Jeff Teague (1.58) scored 21 points (6-6 from the line) with 2 blocks. Blake Griffin (1.42) (and the aforementiond Paul) fought hard against the Hawks with 36 points (17-23 from the field) and 8 rebounds, but with Miami laying down for the Celtics (the Heat scored 66 points without their Big 3), the Hawks had little chance of gaining on Boston for home court advantage in the first round. The Clippers remain tied with Memphis for the 4 and 5 spots, and I’d certainly want home court against a dangerous team like the Grizzlies.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Here’s a name I haven’t heard in a while: Travis Outlaw (2.16). With Marcus Thornton and John Salmons still out for the Kings (yes, Outlaw plays for the Kings), Travis started at SF and went for 20 points, 7 rebounds, 4 steals, and 2 blocks (1% owned). It’s easily his best line of the year and his most minutes of the year. The Kings have one more game tonight, and if you’re still looking for someone to throw in there, Outlaw seems like a good play with Metta World Peace and games of 28 and 33 minutes in his last two.

Pick Up Lines: Marco Belinelli (2.16) showed up again with 23 points (9-14 from the field), 4 assists, and 3 steals (22% owned). Yeeeeeeee-hoo… cares?

We’ve been pushing Jason Thompson (1.38) for a while and I’m sure that’s why he’s up to 39% owned… Again, the Kings have another game tonight, so you could add something like 22 points (9-11 from the field), and 6 rebounds to your totals if he’s still available.

Gustavo Ayon (1.32) had another nice line with 13 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 blocks (5% owned), but let’s keep in mind that the Hornets are sitting on Emeka Okafor, Chris Kaman, and Jason Smith. The first two have histories of injury, but I’m mentioning it so that we can all be cautious about drafting Ayon next year since he’ll probably have more competition for the starting job than he’s had this year.

Derrick Favors (1.16) had a double-double with 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 blocks (33% owned). It’s kind of crazy how Utah can have 3 big men who all put up pretty awesome numbers. I suppose it helps that Paul Millsap can play Small Forward, and I have no idea what their chemistry is really like, but the numbers are pretty nice, and they managed to make the playoffs with the win last night. Utah is definitely a very interesting team going into next season.

Biggest Loser: Paul Pierce (-1.10) only played 18 minutes against the Heat B-team, but he managed to turn the ball over 6 times while only scoring 8 points and adding 2 rebounds and 1 assist. I know it’s the end of the season, and it was a smart move to limit his minutes, but there are guys who can do a lot more (or in the case of turnovers, a lot less) in 18 minutes on the floor, so I’m sticking with Pierce as the Biggest Loser.

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Day 121 of 124: When Danny Granger is Away, Paul George Will Play

Patrick — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 11:22:50 +0000

Line of the Night: With Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert and George Hill all sitting last night for the Pacers (the team is locked into the three seed in the East) Paul George (2.32) got to run wild over the Pistons and finished with 27 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals on the night. Granger is expected to sit again for the Pacers last game on Wednesday, so expect another huge game from Paul to finish out the season.

Honorable Mentions: Tony Allen (2.10) has been horrible since coming back from injury in mid-April (I know, because he’s on my roto team and I’m capped with moves for the year, so I haven’t been able to dump him), but last night with a little help from the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense, he set a Grizzlies’ franchise record with 8 steals to go along with 13 points and 8 rebounds. Says Allen about his performance, “I was alert and felt good in the passing lanes.” No kidding.

Wesley Matthews (2.01) continued to burn hot over the last month of the season, scoring 24 points, with 3 threes, 6 rebounds and 4 steals as Portland got blown out by the Spurs. Matthews got 45 minutes in this game because Jamal Crawford sat with knee tendonitis and Nicolas Batum was out again due to his quad injury. Raymond Felton (0.25) made a surprise return after missing 3 games and finished with 13 points and 7 assists. I guess that means he’s good to go for the team’s last game on Thursday, but who knows with this season.

The Spurs were led by the unexpected duo of Stephen Jackson (1.83), who had 12 points, 4 assists and 5 steals, and Tim Duncan (1.53) with 18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks. Duncan saw a team high 26 minutes in the game as Gregg Popovich worked his magic to seemingly make minutes disappear from the game. Duncan and Jackson, I’d watch a buddy cop movie starring those two.

Elton Brand (1.49) had 15 points, 6 rebounds and 4 blocks as the Sixers locked up a playoff spot with a win over the Nets. Andre Iguodala (1.28) finished with a 14, 7 and 9 while getting a team high 41 minutes, but strained his Achilles late in the game. With a playoff spot locked up, Doug Collins said after the game he plans to rest Iguodala and Brand and probably Lou Williams over the team’s final two games. This means we’ll get a heavy dose of Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks, Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen and Thaddeus Young on Wednesday and Thursday, so plan your lineups accordingly.

Ersan Ilyasova (1.42) was huge yet again for the Bucks, finishing with 19 points and 15 rebounds against the Raptors. Brandon Jennings (1.09) added 25 points, 3 threes and 5 assists in the game.

The Wizards handed the Bobcats their 21st straight loss (and kept them on the trajectory to become the worst NBA team of all time). They were led by John Wall (1.01) who finished with 16 points and 14 assists. Nene Hilario (0.75) had 18 and 6 in just 21 minutes and they also got a surprise performance out of Jan Vesely, but more on that below.

Charlotte was “led” by D.J. Augustin (0.48) with the 42nd best fantasy line of the night thanks to 15 points and 6 assists. Augustin had sat out the Bobcats previous four games, and his return pushed Kemba Walker (-0.52) back to the bench for only 14 minutes. The Bobcats can’t even do garbage time right this season.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Jan Vesely (1.64) has been starting for the Wizards for a month and has quietly put together a decent run of competence over the last couple weeks, sporting a two-week WARP of 0.34. Last night in a win over the Bobcats, he had his best game of the season, going 8-8 from the floor and finishing with 16 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals (3% owned). The Wizards still play two more games this year, so those in deeper leagues looking for a boards/steals option to plug into your lineup could do worse than grabbing Vesely.

Pick Up Lines: This is the time of the season where everything we think we know goes out the window. So it’s no surprise that James Johnson (1.56) blew up against the Bucks a couple weeks after getting mysteriously benched. Johnson finished with 22 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks (34% owned). He’s worth a look for the Raptors’ final game on Thursday against the Nets.

Danny Green (1.41) somehow managed to go 4-4 from three and score 18 points in only 15 minutes on the court as the Spurs blew out the Blazers 124-89. He’s been playing well recently (averaging 2.7 threes and 12 points a game over the last two weeks) despite getting his minutes reduced along with the other Spurs’ starters as they rest up for the playoffs. It’s tough to recommend picking up a guy getting 15-20 minutes a game, but somehow Green is making it work. The Spurs also play on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

The Pacers rolling with their B team allowed Leandro Barbosa (1.25) to see 29 minutes off the bench (his highest since he’s been on the team) and Barbosa made the most of the opportunity with 13 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals. With Granger a good bet to sit out on Wednesday, Barbosa should again see good minutes again in that game.

MarShon Brooks (1.07) has quietly returned to his early season form for the Nets. Against the Sixers, Brooks scored 18 points, adding 4 assists and 2 steals in 34 minutes. He’s scored in double-digits in 8 of his last 9 games and is someone to look at if you need to pick up some points on the last day of the season, which is the next time the Nets play.

With Drew Gooden (-0.99) taking a crap all over last night’s game against the Raptors (he finished with 2 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes), the Bucks turned to Ekpe Udoh (0.94) who had one of his strongest games with the team, finishing with 11 points, 5 rebounds and 3 blocks in 30 minutes (10% owned). Unless the team decides to sit Gooden, Udoh will likely go back to seeing less than 20 off the bench for their last two games on Wednesday and Thursday and is a tough guy to recommend because of that.

Marreese Speights (0.55) finished with 17 and 10 for his second straight double-double. Who would have thought in the battle for playing time against Zach Randolph, that Speights would come out on top? Right now, he’s the better fantasy option out of the two.

Tristan Thompson (0.28) had 19 points, 9 boards and 4 blocks for the Cavs. Unfortunately, he also shot 3-10 from the floor and 6-10 from the line, but if you are looking for boards, blocks and some points, the Cavs still have games remaining on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

Biggest Loser: George Hill sat out for the Pacers, which is great news for Darren Collison (-1.32), right? Turns out, not so much. A.J. Price got the start at PG for the Pacers, but Collison still got 31 minutes of run off the bench and all he could manage was 4 points on 1-8 shooting, with 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 6 turnovers. Hill is expected back for the Pacers last game on Wednesday, so Collison should be pushed back to limited minutes off the bench again for that one.

Zach Randolph (-1.13) played all of 19 minutes off the bench for the Grizzlies and finished with 3 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assists on 1-5 from the field. Randolph has one double-double in his past six games, not exactly what was expected from a guy who averaged 20 and 12 last season.

***

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GMTR Podcast #37: All About Fantasy Basketball Leagues

Patrick — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 16:56:08 +0000

Erik and Patrick are back to break down everything we like and dislike about fantasy basketball in general. We talk about head-to-head versus rotisserie leagues, category based versus points based leagues, salary cap and other types of nightly draft leagues, potential improvements to the way free agency and waivers work, money leagues, fantasy basketball and gambling, as well as ways to make H2H playoffs better. Looking for an hour plus rant about fantasy basketball leagues? This is the podcast for you.

Click to play or Download here (Right-click and Save As)
Or rock the GMTR podcast feed for iTunes.

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Damn Lies Fantasy Hoops Show

Let’s Talk Fantasy…

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Day 120 of 124: A Peaceful Elbow To The Head

Erik — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 13:22:04 +0000

It was as a foul that was heard across the NBA and the fantasy basketball universe, which unfortunately echoed and reverberated in my last remaining, ongoing fantasy basketball championship matchup. James Harden suffered a concussion as he was elbowed in the head by the Lakers’ Metta World Peace after Peace completed slam on the fast break, in LA’s double overtime victory over the OKC Thunder. It now makes it uncertain as to whether or not Harden will be able to play in Oklahoma City’s last two games of the regular season. I own Harden, and the double-stinger of the situation is that I also own the not-so-peaceful Mr. World Peace. But my rant does not end there, my finals match extends up to the very end of the season and I don’t have any moves left. Talk about “two birds with one stone…” I just got nailed with a “two players with one elbow” as Metta is in for a definite suspension by the league and it’s just a matter of how many games they will penalize him with. Ugh. Here see for yourself and decide how much malice was actually involved in the act.

Line of the Night: Now onto a more positive note for the night. Chris Paul (3.40) destroyed his former team by going two steals shy of a rare kind of triple-double. He schooled Greivis Vasquez big time as he poured on 33 points, while dishing out 13 assists. His eight steals were an obvious huge plus factor for our player rater to give him such a sweet rating for the night. Unfortunately, the same couldn’t be said about Eric Gordon (-1.10) who was one of the night’s bigger fantasy losers. He did score 17 points against his former team, but his six turnovers and shooting only 4-13 from the field really pulled down his rating. Needless to say, the Clippers took this one easily under Paul’s lead.

Honorable Mentions:

Serge Ibaka (2.14) benefited from being able to play forty six minutes on the floor and exploded (as can be expected of Ibaka when blessed with playing time) for an impressive 18-14 points-rebounds double-double performance that was wonderfully complemented by what Ibaka does best… SEVEN blocked shots.

Carmelo Anthony (2.13) and the Knicks had a high-scoring outing against the Hawks as they defeated Atlanta 113 to 112. Melo scored a third of the team’s total with 39 points which included three triples from behind the arc. He also added 10 boards and two steals to round out his line.

With Dwight Howard gone for the season, it can be expected for a guy like Ryan Anderson (1.89) to step up and deliver the fantasy goods. His line wasn’t impressive enough to generate many oohs and ahs, but was nonetheless respectable with 24 points and 9 rebounds, including three treys.

The Miami Heat were not only without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh last night, but they also missed (well kind of) the services of Mario Chalmers who was out with flu-like symptoms. That situation left LeBron James (1.89) to handle and defeat the Houston Rockets (mostly) by himself. He scored 32 points (9-10 from the line), grabbed 8 rebounds, dished out five assists, and blocked two shots.

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Marvin Williams (2.86) was actually the night’s second best fantasy basketball producer with a very rare ultra-efficient, high-productivity night. Well yes, it was against the New York Knicks and we all know how they can tend to allow even marginal players to shine every now and again due to their porous defense. Williams caught fire and probably felt like he couldn’t miss as his 29 points were the result of him going 10-14 from the field and him knocking down four shots from downtown. Not only did he light up the scoreboard, Marvin also rewarded his few owners (17% owned) with some peripheral category contributions via 11 boards and three blocks. Not bad.

Pick Up Lines: Chandler Parsons (2.37) was the best player on the Rockets team last night (at least in fantasy basketball) as he scored 23 points (3 threes, 10-13 from the field), pulled down six rebounds, and got four steals (24% owned)

Jason Thompson (2.01) is an extra interesting add for the few games that remain in the season as DeMarcus Cousins is expected to face a one-game suspension after getting slapped with his thirteenth technical foul. Thompson was solid for the night with another double-double, going for 14 points and 11 rebounds. He also dropped seven dimes and got five steals for the night. (37% owned)

Landry Fields (1.51) has been kind of hit-or-miss ever since the Knicks entered the post-D’Antoni, post-Linsanity period. Last night was one of those “hit” games as Fields contributed 18 points (3 threes, 7-8 from the field) to the Knicks’ winning effort. (36% owned)

Biggest Loser:

Whoever said double overtime games are supposed to great for fantasy basketball for got to make sure Ramon Sessions (-1.16) got that particular memo. Sessions had one of his most underwhelming nights since acclimating to the Lakers’ offense. He finish with only 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in spite of logging a respectable 30 minutes on the floor.

Samuel Dalembert (-1.10) played only nine minutes for the Rockets and as can be expected was pretty much useless from a fantasy standpoint with just two rebounds and nothing else.

Part of the reason Chris Paul did so well last night was because he had to step up his game to make up for both Caron Butler (-0.97) and Mo Williams (-0.89) having off nights. Butler scored nothing and took down two boards while Williams managed nine points on awful three for thirteen shooting from the field.

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This is my last recap for this season. It’s been a blast people! Thanks for reading, subscribing, and listening to us.

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Day 119 of 124: Where the Miami Heat Declare the Regular Season to be Over

Patrick — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 14:26:14 +0000

Line of the Night: Ty Lawson (2.93 WARP). 29 points (on 10-16 from the field), with 5 threes and 10 assists for Lawson as he helped Denver to a 118-107 win over Phoenix. Lawson has now scored 20+ points in four straight games and is ranked #8 on the GMTR player rater over the last week. Unlike a lot of players this season, Lawson is one guy who is finishing the year strong.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Jennings (2.20) is at least in the discussion of most improved fantasy player this season – he’s current #14 on the GMTR player rater YTD thanks to games like this – 30 points, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals in a 106-95 win over the Nets. Jennings has now scored 20+ points in 5 of his last 6 games. However, he and Monta Ellis (-0.33) with 12 points on 5-14 shooting, are still a work in progress in terms of their ability to co-exist together.

After missing a game with a thigh bruise, Ersan Ilyasova (2.18) returned to the lineup and went right into beast mode with 17 points, 17 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks for the Bucks. The big question for next season: is Ilyasova worth a second round draft pick, which is what he’s played like over the past month of the season?

David West’s (2.10) 32 points and 12 rebounds was not enough to prevent the Pacers from losing to the Sixers in OT. It’s West’s third double-double in four games, but it’s too little too late to turn around a disappointing year in which West is averaging a weak 13.7 points and 6.6 rebounds a game.

The Utah/Orlando game was full of fantasy goodness. Paul Millsap (1.81) had 18 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals in a 117-107 OT win over the Magic. Al Jefferson (1.49) added 21 and 10 with 3 blocks and Devin Harris made it a party with 21 points and 7 assists.

For the Magic, Jason Richardson (1.33), Jameer Nelson (1.32) and Ryan Anderson (1.28) combined for 65 points and shot 13-29 from three. Glen Davis (1.09) double-doubled with 17 points and 13 rebounds and has made a more than adequate Dwight Howard replacement over the past couple of weeks (well, at least for fantasy purposes).

Derrick Rose (0.40) returned for the Bulls after missing the last three games and had 11 points and 8 assists in 32 minutes. The Bulls don’t play again until Wednesday, so Rose should be good to go again for that game, I’d expect.

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Injury Report: Dwyane Wade left Miami’s game against the Wizards early in the first quarter after dislocating his left index finger. The good news is that there was no break and for now Wade just has his finger in a splint, however, the Heat could easily decide to sit Wade for Miami’s last three games, especially now that Chicago has the number 1 seed in the East locked up. Wade owners still playing in this final week may want to come up with a plan B in case he doesn’t go.

Channing Frye partially dislocated his right shoulder in Saturday’s game. A similar injury last season kept him out about two weeks, so consider his season over. Markieff Morris should see a good bump in minutes, although his recent game log doesn’t inspire confidence about what he’ll do with those minutes. Hakim Warrick could also get some extended run, although he won’t do much other than score and board a little.

Deron Williams missed yet another game for the Nets with a calf injury and admitted that he’s basically done for the season. No need to hold onto him anymore unless you’re in a keeper league. Sundiata Gaines will continue to start in his place.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Shannon Brown (2.74) is still starting in place of the injured Grant Hill (Hill was a game time decision on Saturday, but didn’t play) and made the most of it yesterday with 28 points, a season high 6 threes, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks in 41 minutes against the Nuggets. With Hill threatening to return this season, it’s a little risky to use Brown for the last few games of the season since his minutes get cut if Hill decides to step on the court.

Pick Up Lines: Kenneth Faried (2.26) is still only owned in 42% of Yahoo leagues, and his inconsistency is a big reason why. Last night, Faried put up a huge 18 point, 14 rebound and 3 block game against the Suns. However, it came two games after a 4 point, 4 rebound performance against the Rockets. Like most rookies, Faried is going to be up and down, and as a result it’ll be tough to trust him if your season is on the line this week.

Utah went with their big lineup against the Magic (a team starting Glen Davis at center) and everything came up Derrick Favors (1.73) (32% owned). Favors finished with 16 points (on 8-11 from the field), with 11 rebounds and 2 steals in 36 minutes. Unfortunately, Favors saw less time than that in his previous two games combined, so the Jazz big lineup is still very much a situational play. With the Jazz playing Phoenix and Portland next week, it’s tough to know exactly how they will roll, although the last time he faced Portland, Favors only got 17 minutes of run.

Cartier Martin (1.56) scored 22 points, going 4 -8 from three with 5 rebounds in 38 minutes off the bench for the Wizards. (1% owned). The minutes and points are both a season high for Martin, who hadn’t scored in double-digits in the Wizards’ previous five games. Starter Chris Singleton only played 7 minutes in this game, so consider Martin unlikely to put up a repeat performance over the teams’ last three games.

With LeBron James and Chris Bosh sitting last night to rest up for the playoffs and Dwyane Wade exiting early do to injury, SOMEONE had to score for the Heat, and that someone was Mike Miller (1.24), who led the team with 16 points, hitting 4 threes and adding 10 rebounds (6% owned). Miller has been a huge disappointment during his tenure in Miami, but if the team decides to sit Wade for precautionary reasons for their last two regular season games, Miller could be in for some big minutes. It’s something to keep an eye on.

Another guy finishing the season off strong is Brandon Rush (1.20), who went for 19 points (3 threes, 8-11 from the field) and 7 rebounds against the Rockets (36% owned). He’s averaging 13 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 threes and a block per game while getting about 30 minutes of run over the past two weeks. Dorell Wright has an ankle injury and could miss more time, making Rush a potential must grab for teams still playing.

With Nate Robinson missing his third consecutive game with a hamstring injury, Charles Jenkins (0.37) has picked up the pace his last three games. Against the Rockets yesterday, Jenkins got 40 minutes in the start and finished with 16 points and 8 assists. He now has 29 assists over his last three games. At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t see Robinson back on the court this year, so ride Jenkins if you are still in need of a PG.

Biggest Loser: Putting aside Dwyane Wade’s (-0.82) nothing in 3 minutes before his injury, there is Andre Miller (-0.76), who scored 8 points, with 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 5 turnovers in 28 minutes off the bench against the Suns. Miller is still averaging some nice assist numbers late in the season, but the rest of his stats are anemic, and he isn’t worth a fantasy play anymore unless you are specifically looking for assists.

Spencer Hawes (-0.75) shot 2-7 from the field and 1-4 from the line to finish with 5 points and 7 rebounds in 17 minutes off the bench. Hawes has been coming off the bench for 7 games now, and his minutes have been slowly deteriorating. Stay away from him over the Sixers last few games.

Kyle Lowry (-0.74) only played 7 minutes in last night’s game against the Warriors, finishing with 0 points, 0 rebounds and 3 assists before being benched for the entire second half. When asked about Lowry after the game, Rockets coach Kevin McHale said, “I was trying to win the game.” Ouch.

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